|
Post by Ratty on Mar 30, 2017 20:39:25 GMT
[Snip ]Your warnings didn't include 'land sharks'. Stay dry ... and, if not dry, then stay safe. Up this morning to rain gone but regional rivers flooding, possibly most severe in the Northern Rivers area of New South Wales to the South of us. It's been a big event by any standard, lots of work to be done. Thanks for your concern. LATER: Just heard that Upper Springbrook (in the hills behind us) recorded a staggering 890mm of rain in the thirty hours to 4am today.
|
|
|
Post by Ratty on Mar 30, 2017 23:42:15 GMT
If you have access to Facebook, this is some aerial footage of the city of Lismore NSW (Pop. 30,000) about 150ks to the South: Rotorwing Helicopter Services
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on Mar 31, 2017 12:27:12 GMT
[Snip ]Your warnings didn't include 'land sharks'. Stay dry ... and, if not dry, then stay safe. Up this morning to rain gone but regional rivers flooding, possibly most severe in the Northern Rivers area of New South Wales to the South of us. It's been a big event by any standard, lots of work to be done. Thanks for your concern. LATER: Just heard that Upper Springbrook (in the hills behind us) recorded a staggering 890mm of rain in the thirty hours to 4am today. That's a lot - Melbourne had ~700mm in 2008 from Tropical Storm Fay (that is Melbourne _Florida_ not the real one ) and I thought that was quite damp at the time.
|
|
|
Post by Ratty on Mar 31, 2017 13:11:02 GMT
[ Snip ] That's a lot - Melbourne had ~700mm in 2008 from Tropical Storm Fay (that is Melbourne _Florida_ not the real one ) and I thought that was quite damp at the time. Probably contributed to by cloud seeding from rocket exhaust particles. Speaking of that, you may have heard the story of Clement Wragge, the colourful Queensland meteorologist, who installed Battery of Steiger Vortex rainmaking guns at Charleville 1902. A few were preserved in a park near the information centre.
|
|
|
Post by Ratty on Mar 31, 2017 13:16:23 GMT
.... and, speaking of rainfall in Queensland: Tully is situated on a narrow coastal plain between Mount Tyson and Mount Mackay. The adjacent mountain ranges attract rain clouds from across the Coral Sea and consequently Tully often receives higher rainfall than the surrounding towns. The average annual rainfall in Tully is just over 4000mm (160 inches). The highest rainfall recorded in Tully was 7,900mm (311 inches) in 1950. The most rain in a short period in Tully was 1300mm (52 inches) in 48 hours in March 1967 and the highest daily rainfall was 1140mm (45 inches).Rain falls in Tully on average 150 days per year.
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on Mar 31, 2017 15:45:39 GMT
There is more snow forecast for the NE with Caribou already above its most days with snow more than 1ft in a winter 141 days and counting
|
|
|
Post by Ratty on Mar 31, 2017 21:41:52 GMT
It's official .... 'Unprecedented' floods swamp southeast Qld........ the famous Yatala Pie Shop also fell victim to the rising floodwaters. The bakers used flour bags to try to keep the water out. That would upset some tradies more than having their houses flooded.
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Mar 31, 2017 22:15:43 GMT
This thread could be a validation of Theo's forecast. The 2017 forecast was: " Winter will begin on November 12, 2016 and will last more or less to April 29, 2017 due to planetary signatures which show a late spring with temperatures not really warming up until May 2017. Winter 2016-17 will be colder-and-wetter than normal, especially from the Midwest to the East, including the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states. Although meteorological winter begins December 1, 2016, expect to see snow earlier-than-normal in the Plains states, the Rocky Mountains, into the Midwest and to the Eastern U.S. coast. December 2016 will be colder-than normal and feel like mid-winter for two-thirds of the nation; while the Southern and western states will experience cooler than normal temperatures, with dry conditions persisting in California.
There will be colder-than-normal and wetter then normal snowfall for the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic that will also extend into the Southeastern United States. The key to preparing for the coming winter will be to know that it will be the 'air temperatures' that will be very cold. Expect abrupt changes in temperatures over the course of the winter and do not be swayed by sudden appearances of brief warmer temperatures in February and March 2017 because winter will not be done just yet. Insulation against the colder-than-normal winter air, and the dampness of its precipitation of freezing rain, snow and ice will be the headlines throughout the winter season.
In 2017, there will be abrupt and odd temperature disparities, with temperatures plunging as much as 25 to 30 degrees over a course of hours in some regions, especially in the Midwest, Rocky Mountains and South.
The spring of 2017 will 'appear' to begin early in late February/early March, but will turn out to be colder and wetter than normal - making winter feel longer. The months of April and May 2017 will be wetter than normal, with temperatures below normal for the northeast and Mid-Atlantic and slightly above normal in the South and Southeastern U.S.
My general advice for the coming winter is to treat it as a small taste, a prelude if you will, to the arrival of global cooling, which will begin in late 2017 and be completed fully by the year 2020 when the Sun enters its quiescent phase." Well the first part of the winter appears to have gone as advertised - let's see how the rest of the year pans out. Comments and updates will follow I am sure. The forecast does appear to be somewhat parochial, it would be useful to see what is expected for the rest of the world. Overall any thoughts on how you think it ended? Was Theo right or wrong? Here in the PNW it seemed Theo was right as we were both cold and (**^*%%^) wet. If Theo is still around it would be nice to see his forecast for next year, when did he post the above forecast? Anyone remember? For the lower central Midwest it was a big, fat bust. But, to be fair, our zone is on both north-south and east-west climate boundaries. A slight shift in the westward placement and southerly penetration of the jet stream makes a huge difference ... thus, not a good location to judge the overall success or failure of a macro-level forecast. Coming off a temp-normal, wetter-than-normal summer (+11 inches), we dropped into a warmer-than-normal (+4F), drier-than-normal (-4 inches) Fall, followed by a MUCH-warmer-than-normal (+7F) and drier-than-normal (-3 inches) winter. Seems like we were part of a northward trending, warm air return channel that stretched westward all the way to Denver and at least into Iowa. At 100 to 160 degrees east of us, Western Europe and Central Asia got brutalized down to maybe 20 N Latitude. In the last 3 weeks, our Spring trend appears to be changing back toward normal temps and wetter-than-normal weather patterns. We'll see.
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Mar 31, 2017 22:47:57 GMT
It's official .... 'Unprecedented' floods swamp southeast Qld........ the famous Yatala Pie Shop also fell victim to the rising floodwaters. The bakers used flour bags to try to keep the water out. That would upset some tradies more than having their houses flooded. Ratty: I will freely admit that I know where Australia is. North of Antarctica. Now as to location of cities.......not so hot. When you indicated the rain was unprecedented, is it actually? Or.......a 10 or 20 year lookback?
|
|
|
Post by Ratty on Apr 1, 2017 1:37:52 GMT
[ Snip ] When you indicated the rain was unprecedented, is it actually? Or.......a 10 or 20 year lookback? NO!IMNSHO, these events are relatively common punctuated by periods when people forget. Comments on radio & TV along the lines of "been here for <x> years and never seen it so bad." Notwithstanding, this has been a biggie for sure. Some records will be broken but, hey, that's what records are for.
|
|
|
Post by Ratty on Apr 1, 2017 7:00:35 GMT
Logan facing its worst flood in 40 years1974 is almost certainly the biggest flooding event in living memory. There is a lot of data available for '74, enough to enable councils to make sensible, flood-safe decisions when approving subdivisions. A couple of new suburbs in Logan City were almost completely covered in flood water. Class action anyone?
|
|
|
Post by Ratty on Apr 1, 2017 9:15:36 GMT
I forgot to mention that I am wearing a shirt inside the house and we have closed some of the windows.
|
|
|
Post by Ratty on Apr 1, 2017 13:41:17 GMT
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Apr 1, 2017 14:49:48 GMT
Actually, that resembles Mrs. Clinton
|
|
|
Post by Ratty on Apr 1, 2017 22:58:58 GMT
Must have lost the pantsuit in the flood ......
|
|