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Post by glennkoks on Aug 26, 2017 1:11:20 GMT
Eight o'clock update. Bands of heavy rain, wind gusts in squalls to about 40 mph give or take. Most of the area has between 2-4 inches of rain so far. Overall, about like expected. But with this thing stalling out and still being around in four to five days the rain totals will add up.
At 8:00 Houston time the front edge of the eye is just coming ashore between Rockport and Port OConner. My gut hunch is an area about 50 miles wide with very severe damage from the initial impact. Widespread flooding is still the biggest concern with this storm as it slows down to a crawl.
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 26, 2017 1:29:05 GMT
Thank you and good luck. 40mph winds aren't so bad, but continuous rain softens the ground and can cause localized flooding as I know you are aware.
Hopefully the impact will be limited.
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 26, 2017 2:33:52 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 26, 2017 9:02:16 GMT
From watching news and weather maps it appears that Harvey may have actually speeded up its motion as it dropped from its offshore intensity to its current level 2. This could be good news as the further inland it goes the weaker it becomes and the less chance of rain for a week. There are also a cluster of models that would have the storm pick up the more common North East track and continue inland. Let's hope the media in their hunger for disaster have talked this hurricane up as well. Lots more models to look at here spaghettimodels.com/
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Post by acidohm on Aug 26, 2017 9:46:27 GMT
Watching CNN, headlines are 'Monster hurricane hits Texas' and 'biggest hurricane to hit US in a decade'
Both misleading....
Hope all are ok, pensive wait till search and rescue consider it safe to respond to calls.....
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 26, 2017 10:59:44 GMT
Unfortunately, journalism is all about click bait these days and honesty is out the window. That can make it difficult when the wolf really arrives to get people interested.
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Post by acidohm on Aug 26, 2017 11:43:00 GMT
I imagine in times like that the looks on the faces of the anchor people would say far more then a headline....
They seem a bit like getting a large coffee is important right now....you know, a bit comfortable...
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Aug 26, 2017 14:19:54 GMT
For every named storm, the NHS website has an obscure link called "Discussion." Clicking on that link opens a several paragraph narrative almost always written by a sober meteorologist who eschews the hyperbole of the public and media updates. The discussion, which is updated several times daily, lays out many meteorological details about the nature and strength of the storm and often relies on human forecasting in addition to analyzing models. Often, the discussion will subtlety criticize the more hysterical public announcements. For example, this morning there was a paragraph about the max wind speed, hinting that it is not quite as high as that being publicly reported. One learns that max wind speed, among other metrics, are estimates that aim high. I doubt that any anemometer that survived the eye coming ashore near Port O'Connor will have measured 130 mph winds. This is not to suggest this is not a severe storm that will cause some localized wind and surge damage along the central Texas coast. Some people in Rockport will have their weekend homes destroyed, but the wind and surge damage will be very localized, as Mr. Glenn correctly notes in his excellent posts on his experience with Harvey so far.
The rain and flooding issues could be a real problem if the storm hangs around for several days. The amount of flooding damage will be determined in large part by whether the heavy rains in outer bands train across cities like Houston, or the rice fields between Houston and Beaumont. If, as I hope, it is the latter, then there will be a bountiful crawfish season next spring. If the former, a lot of folks in Houston will be getting new cars and carpets over the next few months.
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Post by glennkoks on Aug 26, 2017 14:49:31 GMT
10:00 AM Update from the Koks Casa. 6 inches of rain, winds last night gusting to 45. So far the effects have been minimal but were still going to get lots of rain and the bayous and creeks have risen quite a bit. Rockport, Port OConner, Seadrift are villages down the coast that were hit by the eyewall have not faired so well. Some reports are they were devastated. Video shows the destruction in Rockport, TX www.facebook.com/CBSAustin/videos/10150897356849996/
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 26, 2017 15:15:38 GMT
At least so far not a large area. Will have to see how the rains progress?
Glad you are safe and sound.
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Post by flearider on Aug 26, 2017 15:27:54 GMT
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Post by walnut on Aug 26, 2017 16:32:21 GMT
A lot of people were also dissatisfied with the performance of the eclipse, too haha
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Post by glennkoks on Aug 26, 2017 16:48:44 GMT
It was misleading in some ways. While it was a cat 4 monster at landfall. The eye was very small and hurricane force winds only extended out about 25 miles. It developed so fast and was so small the storm surge was only around 7 ft. In comparison Ike, Katrina, Rita and Wilma were absolutely huge storms, very large eyes and very large storm surges.
For example while Ike was only a cat 2 at landfall it pushed up a devastating 20ft. storm surge. Things like previous intensity, size of the eye, wind field and forward speed all effect storm surge and rainfall amounts.
The primary danger from Harvey has always been it stalling out and training over the same areas for days on end. While most of the state escaped wind damage the rainfall totals are adding up and will continue to do so for days. It's been a constant light rain here now for over 24 hours with periods of incredibly heavy downpours.
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Post by graywolf on Aug 26, 2017 16:51:02 GMT
Most impacted areas are still not fully accessible to search and rescue and the few vid's we see ( rockport et al) look like a tornado has ripped through the place? The dead will not exactly being waving at the folk with vid cams but lying dead still 'neath the wreckage.
now we see if the rainfall forecast comes to pass though Victoria is under flash flood warnings so the jokers that drive through fast moveing waters will be the next group , after the stay putter's, on the Darwin awards Radar.....
With ACE now above average in the MDR ( when was the last time we saw the main development region not killed off by SAL ?) so we are only just starting on this years storm journey with the florida storm looking likely to pull attention away from Harvey and a big wave just passed Cape Verde.... plus a lot of big storm activity just about to fall of West Africa into the Atlantic.
Maybe not the time to be cutting FEMA's budget to the low billions eh?
EDIT: If I'm reading things right the 'storm surge' itself was not going to be the issue but its blocking drainage out into the gulf?
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Post by glennkoks on Aug 26, 2017 16:59:51 GMT
Graywolf,
You are correct. Storm surge will keep the water from draining as fast as it would otherwise. Highest totals seem to be about 15 inches just to the Southwest of the Houston area with most of the recording stations reporting 5-7 inches.
However if the models are correct whats left of Harvey will still be here in 5 more days. Which is why they are forecasting widespread 30" with some areas getting 40" plus.
Houston's average yearly rainfall is about 50"
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