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Post by nautonnier on Jan 21, 2019 3:47:35 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Jan 21, 2019 12:49:59 GMT
I keep hearing true ssw effects occur once zonal reversal transmits to the trop and zonal winds re-establish at strat. So yes, its taken a looong time to create negative zonal at surface and re-establish at strat, not quite there yet! I reckon 2 weeks will peak. We'll see, 2 weeks ago i proposed this was a long duration event, no-one else had. Its literally staggering how little grasp there is on these things....very badly understood. Someone out there must know more but ive yet to find them. Ssw probably causes 70-80% of significant cold events!!! Many(?) of the others may be still trying to figure out how the settled science of CO2-driven climate causes all of this. Here's your chance! There may be an atmospheric plumbing career with your name on it. Whoever coined the phrase " Piled higher and Deeper" knew what they were talking about. Sometimes what is required is someone to clean the clogs out of the pipeline of knowledge. Of course, sometimes they also get crucified. Dynamic formation of extreme ozone minimum events over the Tibetan Plateau during northern winters 1987–2001 agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2009JD013130On the Linkage among Strong Stratospheric Mass Circulation, Stratospheric Sudden Warming, and Cold Weather Events journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-18-0110.1cas.nuist.edu.cn/TeacherFiles/file/20180809/6366940784135030454056931.pdfThe Impact of a Changing Climate on the Frequency of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events scholarworks.sjsu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=8344&context=etd_thesesStratosphere - Troposphere Interaction during Stratospheric Sudden Warming Events oceanrep.geomar.de/28744/1/834531058-MIT.pdfIdentification and Classification of Stratospheric Sudden Warming Events commons.erau.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1061&context=edtMany other pdfs from search at Duckduckgo.com list of strong stratospheric warming events Indeed! I really am just after a tool to aid with ssw effect forecasting, its lacking... Joe says this... I think he's got his eye on this... uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fc9b71a08a43dd2e0bc472c05372af8d314131ad49273c05449a371bd55170f7.jpgStrat yet to effect trop, due early feb. We all may well just be getting a taster, great news for UK as we could get some snow to play in. US, you may be exiting via top windows....
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 21, 2019 14:25:43 GMT
Any idea how id make it sound more science like Sig?? 🤔 Does it compare to existing laws of sone sort.... You sound science like now. You are postulating excellent thoughts/questions.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 21, 2019 14:59:29 GMT
Many(?) of the others may be still trying to figure out how the settled science of CO2-driven climate causes all of this. Here's your chance! There may be an atmospheric plumbing career with your name on it. Whoever coined the phrase " Piled higher and Deeper" knew what they were talking about. Sometimes what is required is someone to clean the clogs out of the pipeline of knowledge. Of course, sometimes they also get crucified. Indeed! I really am just after a tool to aid with ssw effect forecasting, its lacking... Joe says this... I think he's got his eye on this... uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fc9b71a08a43dd2e0bc472c05372af8d314131ad49273c05449a371bd55170f7.jpgStrat yet to effect trop, due early feb. We all may well just be getting a taster, great news for UK as we could get some snow to play in. US, you may be exiting via top windows.... Really nice graphic. Is the right side of that temporal axis "the chickens coming home to roost"? Are there any similar in 3-D draped over the northern hemisphere as a temporal sequence? We had 2017(?) and 2018(?) events as well? I don't remember but I found references below. Is this 3-sequence event the largest we know of? It kind of looks like other climate phenomena that have a steep inception slope followed by a longer, shallower decline ... only here, from top to bottom of polar atmosphere. Like Madden-Julien? Does thermosphere heat-pressure changes into solar minimum make it easier for air masses to "pop" vertically off the Tibetan Plateau? Same Northern Annular Mode (NAM) that Astro invokes when talking about ENSO? www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-16/sudden-stratospheric-warming-event-fractures-polar-vortex-twowww.markvoganweather.com/2017/01/20/gfs-sudden-stratospheric-warming-event-to-end-january/www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682617305199 Minor 2016 event
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Post by acidohm on Jan 21, 2019 15:01:04 GMT
Any idea how id make it sound more science like Sig?? 🤔 Does it compare to existing laws of sone sort.... You sound science like now. You are postulating excellent thoughts/questions. Thankyou Sig
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Post by acidohm on Jan 21, 2019 15:12:31 GMT
I have to admit, I'm more caught up in expanding twitter follows to relevant sources in a quest to open as much info as possible, then able to fully assess and quantify details. As this is still unfolding im desperate to find best means to analyse and therefore forecast potential incoming cold. NAM is just one thing to fully understand once this is done...also AAM (?) and others.... I must admit, its not the forecast of ssw which is flawed, gfs actually does that very very well....its the aftermath. Though, i am suspecting this is one for the textbooks....i don't think theres been one like it. Until this thing touches ground/models react to it/end effects materialise, im most spare time watching it. Twitter is excellent resource, many qualified professionals giving opinion/data. My only concern is it gets flooded and dubious data creeps in, i dont really want to spend time verifying every tweet like you have to with youtube sources for example.... 3d like this Missouri???
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Post by acidohm on Jan 21, 2019 15:30:44 GMT
Missouri, im thinking ozone, less uv must mean less ozone/heat in strat. Only papers ive seen say global warming = more mjo. Dont read them in detail....
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 21, 2019 18:13:47 GMT
Missouri, im thinking ozone, less uv must mean less ozone/heat in strat. Only papers ive seen say global warming = more mjo. Dont read them in detail.... That 3-D is great. I'll look forward to following you on this. It's fascinating. So why/how are the models so good on forecasting stratospheric warming but cannot get a grip on its downward break? I'm just shooting from the hip and know nothing. The downward movement is compressing(?)/displacing(?) the air masses below it(?). Downward movement settles into cells which then move outward(?) or partially sit in place intensifying blocking(?). Is flow southward pushed ... or pulled ... or both? Deep southward outbreaks which are offset by warm air movement northward? Warmer Gulf Stream flows differentially separating settlement pockets? Hadley cell strength a factor? I notice the 3D cones separate into vortices anchored over land. Satellites say thermosphere has cooled dramatically and compressed in current minimum. Affecting loft time for SSW at top of stratosphere? I'm rambling.
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 21, 2019 18:22:19 GMT
Missouri, im thinking ozone, less uv must mean less ozone/heat in strat. Only papers ive seen say global warming = more mjo. Dont read them in detail.... That 3-D is great. I'll look forward to following you on this. It's fascinating. So why/how are the models so good on forecasting stratospheric warming but cannot get a grip on its downward break? I'm just shooting from the hip and know nothing. The downward movement is compressing(?)/displacing(?) the air masses below it(?). Downward movement settles into cells which then move outward(?) or partially sit in place intensifying blocking(?). Is flow southward pushed ... or pulled ... or both? Deep southward outbreaks which are offset by warm air movement northward? Warmer Gulf Stream flows differentially separating settlement pockets? Hadley cell strength a factor? I notice the 3D cones separate into vortices anchored over land. Satellites say thermosphere has cooled dramatically and compressed in current minimum. Affecting loft time for SSW at top of stratosphere? I'm rambling. I don't think that the current Gulf Stream / North Atlantic drift has the ooomph to do much at all especially as the loop current is still not working properly
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Post by acidohm on Jan 21, 2019 19:06:44 GMT
Missouri, im thinking ozone, less uv must mean less ozone/heat in strat. Only papers ive seen say global warming = more mjo. Dont read them in detail.... That 3-D is great. I'll look forward to following you on this. It's fascinating. So why/how are the models so good on forecasting stratospheric warming but cannot get a grip on its downward break? I'm just shooting from the hip and know nothing. The downward movement is compressing(?)/displacing(?) the air masses below it(?). Downward movement settles into cells which then move outward(?) or partially sit in place intensifying blocking(?). Is flow southward pushed ... or pulled ... or both? Deep southward outbreaks which are offset by warm air movement northward? Warmer Gulf Stream flows differentially separating settlement pockets? Hadley cell strength a factor? I notice the 3D cones separate into vortices anchored over land. Satellites say thermosphere has cooled dramatically and compressed in current minimum. Affecting loft time for SSW at top of stratosphere? I'm rambling. Your questions are also my question!!! Dont know why strat well forecast, need to find out...(happened 2018 too) Ive seen comments that theres a relationship between vortice location and effect below but need to pin down. My understanding is yes, downwelling compresses below and increases pressure, ie high pressure/blocking. The 3 split votice is a rare occurrance, displacement/split being more regular. Certainly a split is more effective to trop then displacement.... Further, mjo placement is a factor, when in 7 and 8 greatest force for northern blocking (it got there as ssw initiated, has since spun around through 1-5 now back 6 going 7 etc) Easterly QBO helps enhance reverse zonality. Meridionality with warm air heading north can lead to warm air advection where the increased temps in arctic force blocking. This was pronounced in 2018 event, but missing this one. Primarily as the meridionality has been more 'wedge' then 'omega' and so warm air didnt make it far north?? Astro could be considered prophetic if cold lands beginning of feb and lasts....his winter forecast will have been eye wateringly good....
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Post by acidohm on Jan 22, 2019 11:15:26 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 23, 2019 4:08:30 GMT
Hey Florida -It's About That Time Again Watch Out For Falling Iguanas.
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Post by acidohm on Jan 23, 2019 11:21:02 GMT
Meanwhile.....waiting....
By this time next week we'll edge towards certainty for N Europe. Signs are good, Astro clearly stated warm till feb then long cold period. I guess it came early US??
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 23, 2019 12:35:24 GMT
Meanwhile.....waiting.... By this time next week we'll edge towards certainty for N Europe. Signs are good, Astro clearly stated warm till feb then long cold period. I guess it came early US?? Not really exceptional yet - it depends on where you are in the US. If the models and Joe B are right this next cold could make people stop and think. If it goes on as long as Astro says then the 'it's global warm cold climate' people are going to become more shrill. What is needed is more of the continent by continent temperature records. It seems that using HCNs that most continents have seen a steady drop. If someone can find the reason for the 'Global Average Surface Temperature' (sic) going up by pointing at particular areas that could be useful.
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Post by acidohm on Jan 23, 2019 18:40:36 GMT
Im beginning to suspect primary blocking will occur over Bering Sea. The Canada trough will continue to cause a lack of HLB in the North Atlantic. Our biggest hope will be the bering high breaking through the arctic to our north probably leaving us with depressions to our south with a changeable, but cold couple of weeks or more. The canada low is probably due to the position of a strat vortex fragment, tho research is not complete enough to verify. Perhaps as the vortex reforms a more common blocking feature will form in our neighbourhood. However, the bulk of the downwelling does appear to focus over bering sea, though ive heard it more then once that true strat to trop effects occur as the vortex reforms. Very very very interesting times!
A post i made at a weather forum.....we shall see....obviously uk orientated!!
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