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Post by nautonnier on Jan 25, 2019 12:53:02 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 25, 2019 17:09:46 GMT
Unlike the north country, we here in Mid-Missouri (latitude 39 N, longitude 92 W) tend to get our winter cold periods in short bursts of 1 to 3 days below 0 F. The really notorius winter tallies depend on the strength and westward placement of arctic outbursts. Our consistent recorded daily records only began in 1891, so we miss the 1880s ... but we capture 1899 and 1905 ... the years the Mississippi River really froze. In those years cold bursts lasted a week and low temperatures ranged across these outburst from -12 to -25 F in 1899 and -4 to -25 F in 1905. The winters between weren't slackers either, all having outbreaks lasting 5 to 9 days (generally in Feb.) where lows dropped into the minus teens and 20s. Yeah, yeah, we got off easy you say. In Dec. 1983 we had 9 straight days of -4 to -19 F followed by 4 days of -3 to -9 F. In comparison, 1984-85 was milder, 8 of 11 days in Feb. ranging from 2 to -16 F. Everything else has been duck soup except for 1973-74 (6 days with a low of -18), 1978-79 (with 12 sub-zero days, a couple reaching -16F) and 1980-81 (with 4 days dipping to -12 F). So it ain't Anchorage, Alaska where two of my winters there from 1981 to 1989 had lows that dropped to -40 F (and daytime highs maybe hit -20 F) and stayed there forevah. But it's all we got, and the present and the future gets compared to them. Stop laughing Sig. We will see how this cold plays out. Where the springs go may be more important. Length and bredth may trump absolute temp. The "Hammer of the North" logo belongs to the Vikings ... and the Inuit.
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Post by acidohm on Jan 25, 2019 18:04:11 GMT
Meanwhile even further North... Jan 2019All this frigid air coming down south does not appear to be being replaced by warm air streaming into the Arctic it is colder there than this time last year 2018 Being discussed here.... I noticed, as others did here, a big northbound warm airmass west of UK in previous ssw. On this occasion, there is strikingly less meridionality north of uk, at best the azores high is wedge shaped. Also, nao is stubbornly neutrally positive, the subject of perhaps a million twitter man hours! Cohen is 'a bit' like Svalgaard, but into vortex....
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Post by acidohm on Jan 25, 2019 18:10:57 GMT
Unlike the north country, we here in Mid-Missouri (latitude 39 N, longitude 92 W) tend to get our winter cold periods in short bursts of 1 to 3 days below 0 F. The really notorius winter tallies depend on the strength and westward placement of arctic outbursts. Our consistent recorded daily records only began in 1891, so we miss the 1880s ... but we capture 1899 and 1905 ... the years the Mississippi River really froze. In those years cold bursts lasted a week and low temperatures ranged across these outburst from -12 to -25 F in 1899 and -4 to -25 F in 1905. The winters between weren't slackers either, all having outbreaks lasting 5 to 9 days (generally in Feb.) where lows dropped into the minus teens and 20s. Yeah, yeah, we got off easy you say. In Dec. 1983 we had 9 straight days of -4 to -19 F followed by 4 days of -3 to -9 F. In comparison, 1984-85 was milder, 8 of 11 days in Feb. ranging from 2 to -16 F. Everything else has been duck soup except for 1973-74 (6 days with a low of -18), 1978-79 (with 12 sub-zero days, a couple reaching -16F) and 1980-81 (with 4 days dipping to -12 F). So it ain't Anchorage, Alaska where two of my winters there from 1981 to 1989 had lows that dropped to -40 F (and daytime highs maybe hit -20 F) and stayed there forevah. But it's all we got, and the present and the future gets compared to them. Stop laughing Sig. We will see how this cold plays out. Where the springs go may be more important. Length and bredth may trump absolute temp. The "Hammer of the North" logo belongs to the Vikings ... and the Inuit. Sounds a bit like being in the UK MoBoy....but more so! (And without the constant damp at all other times!)
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 25, 2019 19:23:19 GMT
There is a reason that a few folks flock south in the winter. Yes, mostly seasoned folks. With that stated, you DO get used to cooler temps. Just came inside from starting my pickup. -15F and it didn't feel too bad.
Compared to Missouriboy country, we have time to "ease" into the cool temps. He has to live with a sudden downdraft, and that would be miserable.
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 25, 2019 19:54:23 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 25, 2019 22:25:01 GMT
For Previous Post: Some people need longer shovels ... and a more knowledgeable prophet. Yep Sig, we get blasted in short, sharp shocks. There is an old saying here ... If you don't like Missouri weather, just wait a minute. I won't be guiled into declaring a cold emergency till I see your RV headed south. Acid. Your Beast is from the East. Ours is from the north and northwest. The Good Witch of the South is our patron saint. Just like Toto's. And yes, our humidity can go up and down like a yoyo. Weather Update: The great arctic outbreak is looking a little peaked for us. NWS and Weather Channel are both forecasting lows of 1 F on Tues. and Weds. 90 miles north they are split at -9 F and -12 F. It don't look 1905ish.
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 26, 2019 1:31:58 GMT
Near de Canadian border -27F for awhile. Warms up during the day though. 😂
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 26, 2019 3:39:30 GMT
Near de Canadian border -27F for awhile. Warms up during the day though. 😂 Positively Eemian.
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 26, 2019 3:58:41 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 26, 2019 5:20:05 GMT
Joe is now agreeing with Astro - interesting Hope nobody sold their coat
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Post by acidohm on Jan 26, 2019 9:53:05 GMT
Long range models confirm Astro in N Europe, beginning of feb just coming into GFS range and ATM doesnt verify.
Lots of questions being asked in met communities how this apparent discrepancy is possible.
Of course getting to 3rd of feb doesn't allow confirmation of a month, strat negative effects are due to drip down by start of the month, so all to play for...
I have maintained on-line that we should forget every forecast until it's february, february things will change. Purely on astro being right so far and long range models confirming (hypothetically) this idea.
We shall see, im either gonna look good, or look like an idiot 🤣
Of course there was my hurricane prediction earlier this year 🙄
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 26, 2019 10:43:14 GMT
And instead of iguanas dropping from trees.... Polar vortex to blast midwestern, northeastern US with extreme cold to end January
The colder air plunging back into midwestern and northeastern United States through Saturday will pale in comparison to the brutal cold expected to end January as the polar vortex plunges south. "Through late next week, it will be a very cold stretch and high energy draw from the Plains to the East Coast," according to AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok. While the current blast of Arctic air is expected to hold highs to the single digits and teens across most of the Midwest and the St. Lawrence Valley on Saturday, even harsher conditions can put more people and animals at risk for frostbite and hypothermia during the final days of January. www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/midwestern-northeastern-us-to-face-more-brutal-cold-as-polar-vortex-plunges-south-to-end-january/70007245
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 26, 2019 10:48:47 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 26, 2019 10:56:08 GMT
Joe Bastardi's analog year for this year is 1985...... It was the year of Ronald Reagan's 2nd term Inauguration. It was so cold the parade was canceled. "Later in the day, White House officials quickly revised plans for the public inauguration in the face of 9-degree weather. ''I would like to cry,'' said Ron Walker, chairman of the inaugural committee. Stepping Into the Cold The 73-year-old President repeated the oath recited by Chief Justice Warren E. Burger before a small gathering in the grand foyer of the White House. Afterwards, Mr. Reagan and Vice President Bush, who also renewed his oath today, ducked into the icy wind gusting at the North Portico and posed for an instant for photographers. ''Wow!'' Mr. Reagan exclaimed, and they quickly retreated to the warmth of the White House and a day of nonpublic celebration."www.nytimes.com/1985/01/21/us/reagan-sworn-for-2d-term-inaugural-parade-dropped-as-bitter-cold-hits-capital.htmlH/t Ric Werne The point being that all the 'it's cold because it's global warming' should be told that no it is cold because it is cold it is what happens with sudden stratospheric warming. AND
*CAUTION BARYCENTER DISCUSSION Compare where bary was in 1985 to where he is today... pure coincidence of course ..... correlation not causation..... etc etc
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