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Post by kiwistonewall on Jan 28, 2009 18:15:47 GMT
Now that Obama wants to quit Guantanamo, maybe the IPCC will take it over to hold all the PRECRIME skeptics. ;D
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Post by ebrainsh on Jan 28, 2009 21:06:49 GMT
Sent to Dan Hogan at ScienceDaily: Modellers Remove Evidence of Cooling and Editor Removes Comment by Climate Sceptic Dr Mann is famous for managing to falsely recreate past temperatures so they accord with the popular global warming consensus. Indeed Dr Mann is responsible for the infamous hockey-stick graph that suggested the medieval warm period did not exist. Bill Kininmonth, formerly of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, was interviewed on Australian national radio as part of a segment on the new findings. Mr Kininmonth explained that there has been no reduction in the cycle of Antarctic sea ice and that he was generally sceptical that the west Antarctic ice sheet was likely to melt – a claim made earlier in the segment by Dr Barry Brook from Adelaide University. In apparent contravention of ABC Broadcasting principles, the comment from Mr Kininmonth has been expunged from the transcript and the podcast. [4] It seems computer models can remove evidence of cooling and editors can remove comment from climate change sceptics – but of course the truth does not cease to exist because it is ignored. jennifermarohasy.com/blog/2009/01/modellers-remove-evidence-of-cooling-and-editor-removes-comment-by-climate-sceptic/
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Post by ebrainsh on Jan 28, 2009 23:27:53 GMT
Sent to Dan Hogan at ScienceDaily: Says Hansen 'Embarrassed NASA' & 'Was Never Muzzled' Retired senior NASA atmospheric scientist Dr. John S. Theon, the former supervisor of James Hansen, NASA's vocal man-made global warming fears soothsayer, has now publicly declared himself a skeptic and declared that Hansen "embarrassed NASA" with his alarming climate claims and said Hansen was "was never muzzled." Theon joins the rapidly growing ranks of international scientists abandoning the promotion of anthropogenic global warming fears. "I appreciate the opportunity to add my name to those who disagree that global warming is man-made," Theon declared "climate models are useless." "My own belief concerning anthropogenic climate change is that the models do not realistically simulate the climate system because there are many very important sub-grid scale processes that the models either replicate poorly or completely omit," Theon explained. "Furthermore, some scientists have manipulated the observed data to justify their model results. In doing so, they neither explain what they have modified in the observations, nor explain how they did it. They have resisted making their work transparent so that it can be replicated independently by other scientists. This is clearly contrary to how science should be done. Thus there is no rational justification for using climate model forecasts to determine public policy," he added. epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=1a5e6e32-802a-23ad-40ed-ecd53cd3d320
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Post by magellan on Jan 29, 2009 4:00:11 GMT
www.climatesci.org/publications/pdf/R-342.pdfebrainsh, If you are looking for "high impact" published material that implicitly states AGW is hogwash, that is not how it works, unless of course it is pro-AGW, then it sails through. Rather, one must identify studies with empirical evidence that disagree with main tenets of AGW, such as above. It can take a bit of basic understanding of the subject matter, but over time one learns. The fact that Science Daily is so willing to promote untested hypotheses such as your example yesterday should raise the red flag on how they mine for "reputable" journal media. I have two studies from 2002 that should have put AGW in the grave back then, but with so many billions in "research" dollars at stake, the hoax will go on indefinitely. The U.S. Congress just approved $400 million more for "global warming research". Get the picture? You know, the job stimulus and all to save all those important jobs the average worker so desperately needs. Anyway, Science Daily should have reported on this paper specifically. Did they? geology.gsapubs.org/cgi/reprint/37/1/71.pdf
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Post by ebrainsh on Jan 29, 2009 4:15:03 GMT
magellan, it does not appear that SD has published “Is there a link between Earth's magnetic field and low-latitude precipitation?” Furthermore, it does not appear that SD has published any papers from Mads Faurschou Knudsen or Peter Riisager.
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Post by ebrainsh on Jan 29, 2009 4:24:32 GMT
Sent to Dan Hogan at ScienceDaily:
Assessment of Temperature Trends in the Troposphere
Deduced from Thermal Winds
Roger A. Pielke Sr. and Thomas N. Chase
CIRES, University of Colorado
Boulder, CO 80309
John R. Christy and Justin J. Hnilo
University of Alabama in Huntsville
Huntsville, AL 35805
Benjamin M. Herman
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Arizona
Tucson, AZ 85721-0081
Submitted to the International Journal of Climatology
November 29, 2008
Abstract
Recent work has concluded that there has been significant warming in the tropical upper troposphere using the thermal wind equation to diagnose temperature trends from observed winds; a result which diverges from all other observational data. In our paper we examine evidence for this conclusion from a variety of directions and find that evidence for a significant tropical tropospheric warming is weak. In support of this conclusion we provide evidence that, for the period 1979-2007, except for the highest latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, both the thermal wind, as estimated by the zonal averaged 200 hPa wind and the tropospheric layer-averaged temperature, are consistent with each other, and show no statistically significant trends.
5. Conclusion
Our paper demonstrates that there are significant uncertainties in using the TWE to diagnose tropical temperature trends. Results using the TWE in the deep tropics are in significant disagreement with all other observational data. We have also provided evidence that the TWE is less robust and subject to higher variability and error than other available data. Use of the TWE is not physically appropriate in deep tropical latitudes and near the tropopause it can be affected by the reversal of temperature gradients should the tropopause be crossed. For these reasons we conclude that the diagnosis of an upper tropospheric warming in the tropics using the thermal wind is not likely to be accurate.
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Post by ebrainsh on Jan 29, 2009 4:43:51 GMT
Sent to Dan Hogan at ScienceDaily: Is there a link between Earth’s magnetic field and low-latitude precipitation? Mads Faurschou Knudsen1,2,3, Peter Riisager4 1Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford, Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PR, UK 2Department of Geography and Geology, University of Copenhagen, Øster Voldgade 10, 1350 Copenhagen, Denmark 3Department of Earth Sciences, University of Aarhus, Hoegh-Guldbergs Gade 2, 8000 Aarhus, Denmark 4Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Øster Voldgade 10, 1350 Copenhagen, Denmark ABSTRACT Some studies indicate that the solar modulation of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) particles has profound consequences for Earth’s climate system. A corollary of the GCR-climate theory involves a link between Earth’s magnetic fi eld and climate, since the geomagnetic field also modulates the GCR flux reaching Earth’s atmosphere. In this study, we explore this potential geomagnetic-climate link by comparing a new reconstruction of the Holocene geomagnetic dipole moment with high-resolution speleothem data from China and Oman. The speleothem 18O data represent proxy records for past precipitation in low-latitude regions, which is a climate parameter that is likely to have been sensitive to variations in the GCR fl ux modulated by the dipole moment. Intriguingly, we observe a relatively good correlation between the high-resolution speleothem 18O records and the dipole moment, suggesting that Earth’s magnetic field to some degree influenced low-latitude precipitation in the past. In addition to supporting the notion that variations in the geomagnetic field may have influenced Earth’s climate in the past, our study also provides some degree of support for the controversial link between GCR particles, cloud formation, and climate. CONCLUDING REMARKS Deciphering low-latitude precipitation proxy records is complicated by the presence of several potential climate-forcing mechanisms and the fact that proxy data from geological records by nature are noisy and imperfect representations of the actual past. The good agreement observed in this study between speleothem δ18O data and the geomagnetic dipole moment suggests that dipole moment variations may have played a role in controlling past low-latitude precipitation in some regions. The physical mechanism that links dipole moment variations with low-latitude precipitation patterns is provided by the GCR-climate theory. The potential significance of the dipole moment for Holocene low-latitude precipitation probably varied considerably on a regional scale, which could explain why the dipole moment correlates better with the speleothem record from southern China compared to the record from Oman. Obviously, the potential geomagnetic influence on low-latitude precipitation outlined in the present study does not contradict the notion that long-term speleothem δ18O variability in southern China and Oman was controlled by changes in summer insolation, or that the short-term variability partly was controlled by variations in solar activity and ocean-atmosphere processes. Our study may have a more general implication, as it lends support to the notion that variations in the geomagnetic field have influenced Earth’s climate in the past. If confirmed, our study also provides some support for the controversial link between cosmic ray particles, cloud formation, and climate, which is crucial to better understand how changes in solar activity impact the climate system. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Mads Faurschou Knudsen is supported by NERC Fellowship NE/E012531/1 and the Carlsberg Foundation. Peter Riisager is grateful for financial support from the Carlsberg Foundation. Peter Langen kindly computed the summer insolation curve based on the CliMT software of Rodrigo Caballeros. The authors thank Mike Fuller and Vincent Courtillot for constructive reviews. geology.gsapubs.org/cgi/reprint/37/1/71.pdf
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Post by crakar24 on Jan 29, 2009 5:00:34 GMT
Sent to Dan Hogan at ScienceDaily: Is there a link between Earth’s magnetic field and low-latitude precipitation? Mads Faurschou Knudsen1,2,3, Peter Riisager4 1Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford, Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PR, UK 2Department of Geography and Geology, University of Copenhagen, Øster Voldgade 10, 1350 Copenhagen, Denmark 3Department of Earth Sciences, University of Aarhus, Hoegh-Guldbergs Gade 2, 8000 Aarhus, Denmark 4Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Øster Voldgade 10, 1350 Copenhagen, Denmark ABSTRACT Some studies indicate that the solar modulation of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) particles has profound consequences for Earth’s climate system. A corollary of the GCR-climate theory involves a link between Earth’s magnetic fi eld and climate, since the geomagnetic field also modulates the GCR flux reaching Earth’s atmosphere. In this study, we explore this potential geomagnetic-climate link by comparing a new reconstruction of the Holocene geomagnetic dipole moment with high-resolution speleothem data from China and Oman. The speleothem 18O data represent proxy records for past precipitation in low-latitude regions, which is a climate parameter that is likely to have been sensitive to variations in the GCR fl ux modulated by the dipole moment. Intriguingly, we observe a relatively good correlation between the high-resolution speleothem 18O records and the dipole moment, suggesting that Earth’s magnetic field to some degree influenced low-latitude precipitation in the past. In addition to supporting the notion that variations in the geomagnetic field may have influenced Earth’s climate in the past, our study also provides some degree of support for the controversial link between GCR particles, cloud formation, and climate. CONCLUDING REMARKS Deciphering low-latitude precipitation proxy records is complicated by the presence of several potential climate-forcing mechanisms and the fact that proxy data from geological records by nature are noisy and imperfect representations of the actual past. The good agreement observed in this study between speleothem δ18O data and the geomagnetic dipole moment suggests that dipole moment variations may have played a role in controlling past low-latitude precipitation in some regions. The physical mechanism that links dipole moment variations with low-latitude precipitation patterns is provided by the GCR-climate theory. The potential significance of the dipole moment for Holocene low-latitude precipitation probably varied considerably on a regional scale, which could explain why the dipole moment correlates better with the speleothem record from southern China compared to the record from Oman. Obviously, the potential geomagnetic influence on low-latitude precipitation outlined in the present study does not contradict the notion that long-term speleothem δ18O variability in southern China and Oman was controlled by changes in summer insolation, or that the short-term variability partly was controlled by variations in solar activity and ocean-atmosphere processes. Our study may have a more general implication, as it lends support to the notion that variations in the geomagnetic field have influenced Earth’s climate in the past. If confirmed, our study also provides some support for the controversial link between cosmic ray particles, cloud formation, and climate, which is crucial to better understand how changes in solar activity impact the climate system. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Mads Faurschou Knudsen is supported by NERC Fellowship NE/E012531/1 and the Carlsberg Foundation. Peter Riisager is grateful for financial support from the Carlsberg Foundation. Peter Langen kindly computed the summer insolation curve based on the CliMT software of Rodrigo Caballeros. The authors thank Mike Fuller and Vincent Courtillot for constructive reviews. geology.gsapubs.org/cgi/reprint/37/1/71.pdfEbrainsh, Why dont you send the publisher at SD a story that is pro AGW, if the story gets published then you know he is a total wanker just like you think. If he does not publish look on the bright side even if he does not publish you are still educating him, assuming he can read of course.
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Post by Pooh on Jan 29, 2009 7:27:36 GMT
ebrainsh wrote:
Perhaps weaker solar magnetic field -> Galactic Cosmic Rays penetrate lower atmosphere -> more Low Clouds -> Cooling -> Warm & Cold Air masses collide -> Rain? In case I got this chain of effects wrong, please see: Svensmark, Henrik. “ Cosmoclimatology: a new theory emerges.” Astronomy & Geophysics 48, no. 1 (2007): 1.18-1.24. doi:10.1111/j.1468-4004.2007.48118.x. dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-4004.2007.48118.x. (In case I read or interpreted Svensmark incorrectly, please post a correction.)
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Post by ebrainsh on Jan 29, 2009 20:08:10 GMT
Sent to Dan Hogan at ScienceDaily: Cosmoclimatology: a new theory emerges Astronomy & Geophysics 48, no. 1 (2007): Svensmark, Henrik. Henrik Svensmark, Director, Center for Sun-Climate Research in the Danish National Space Center, Copenhagen, Denmark; hsv@spacecenter.dk. I thank Nigel Calder FRAS for suggesting this article and assisting in its preparation. A&G • February 2007 • Vol. 48 Abstract Changes in the intensity of galactic cosmic rays alter the Earth’s cloudiness. A recent experiment has shown how electrons liberated by cosmic rays assist in making aerosols, the building blocks of cloud condensation nuclei, while anomalous climatic trends in Antarctica confirm the role of clouds in helping to drive climate change. Variations in the cosmic-ray influx due to solar magnetic activity account well for climatic fluctuations on decadal, centennial and millennial timescales. Over longer intervals, the changing galactic environment of the solar system has had dramatic consequences, including Snowball Earth episodes. A new contribution to the faint young Sun paradox is also on offer. What remains for investigation? The past 10 years have seen the reconnaissance of a new area of research by a small number of investigators. The multidisciplinary nature of cosmoclimatology is both a challenge and an opportunity for many lines of inquiry. The interaction between different branches of science is no mere exchange of text-book information, but takes place at the cutting edge of discovery. An example comes from the astrophysics of Gould’s Belt, the tumultuous region of the galaxy into which the solar system has wandered. The possibility that cosmic rays from a nearby supernova provoked the onset of northern glaciations 2.75 million years ago was mooted by Knie et al. 2004. This is of special interest because of the replacement of some African forests by grassland and the emergence of human beings. The earliest known stone tools date from 2.6 million years ago. Whether or not the particular event cited by Knie et al. was responsible, gamma-ray astronomers are alert to the need to identify supernova events within Gould’s Belt during the past few million years if climate change on that timescale is to be fully understood. Better knowledge of the spiral arms and star formation history of the galaxy should clarify the climate connection over longer spans of time, and ESA’s Gaia mission can be expected to make a big stride forward. At the same time, the onus falls on Earth scientists to improve knowledge of climate history before 200 million years ago with an on-shore drilling programme to match the scope and success of ocean-floor drilling (Soreghan et al. 2005). These very different ventures in astronomy and geophysics should converge, and also be of great interest to palaeontologists and evolutionary biologists. The Milankovitch changes in the Earth’s attitude and orbit show up persistently in the oxygen- 18 record of recent ice ages, notably at high latitudes. They pose conundrums for both the greenhouse and cosmic-ray theories of climate change. Large rises in temperature within the glacial periods, related to cosmic-ray decreases, do not melt the main ice sheets. Terminations leading to interglacial conditions seem to need an insolation trigger, whether from obliquity (40-kyr cycle) in the early Pleistocene or ellipticity (100-kyr cycle) in the late Pleistocene. To account for high rates of deglaciation associated with particular insolation frequencies, amplifying mechanisms on offer include surges in atmospheric carbon dioxide (Shackleton 2000) and changes in ice-sheet geography (Raymo et al. 2006). In Copenhagen we hope to use simple climate models of the glacial cycles to test whether geographical factors, including ice-sheet extent and sea-level changes, may account for variable sensitivity to, or resonance with, climate forcing by orbital changes, clouds or greenhouse gases. The physics of the Sun and the heliosphere runs through the story on all timescales from the early Earth to the present day. Whatever the verdict may be about the relative importance of cosmic rays and greenhouse gases in current and future climate change, there is an obvious need to predict future solar behaviour better, by clearer observations of the magnetic field at the Sun’s poles. There are already strong hints that taking cosmic rays into account should help to improve the annual forecasts of the Asian monsoon. The complete checklist of future research concerning cosmic rays and climate ranges from more thorough investigation of aerosol chemistry (as promised by CLOUD) to the implications for astrobiology and the search for alien life. Besides the traditional “Goldilocks” comfort zone set by stellar irradiance, it now seems clear that stellar winds and magnetism are crucial factors in the origin and viability of life on wet Earth-like planets. So are the ever-changing galactic environments and star-formation rates. The tropical glaciers of Snowball Earth tell us that survival was a close-run thing, even here. ! Svensmark_2007cosmoClimatology.pdf www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&ct=res&cd=3&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.spacecenter.dk%2Fresearch%2Fsun-climate%2FScientific%2520work%2520and%2520publications%2Fsvensmark_2007cosmoClimatology.pdf&ei=mP2BSYHkB9LjtgejjewW&usg=AFQjCNGbts0S_kThBU5q4P0pFbHDZI7_yw&sig2=o_KUa2hIVUc9Bd_ENOy8KQ
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Post by ebrainsh on Jan 30, 2009 4:21:29 GMT
Sent to Dan Hogan at ScienceDaily: Assessment of Temperature Trends in the Troposphere Deduced from Thermal WindsRoger A. Pielke Sr. and Thomas N. Chase CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder, CO 80309 John R. Christy and Justin J. Hnilo University of Alabama in Huntsville Huntsville, AL 35805 Benjamin M. Herman Department of Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721-0081 Submitted to the International Journal of Climatology November 29, 2008 AbstractRecent work has concluded that there has been significant warming in the tropical upper troposphere using the thermal wind equation to diagnose temperature trends from observed winds; a result which diverges from all other observational data. In our paper we examine evidence for this conclusion from a variety of directions and find that evidence for a significant tropical tropospheric warming is weak. In support of this conclusion we provide evidence that, for the period 1979-2007, except for the highest latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, both the thermal wind, as estimated by the zonal averaged 200 hPa wind and the tropospheric layer-averaged temperature, are consistent with each other, and show no statistically significant trends. 5. ConclusionOur paper demonstrates that there are significant uncertainties in using the TWE to diagnose tropical temperature trends. Results using the TWE in the deep tropics are in significant disagreement with all other observational data. We have also provided evidence that the TWE is less robust and subject to higher variability and error than other available data. Use of the TWE is not physically appropriate in deep tropical latitudes and near the tropopause it can be affected by the reversal of temperature gradients should the tropopause be crossed. For these reasons we conclude that the diagnosis of an upper tropospheric warming in the tropics using the thermal wind is not likely to be accurate. www.climatesci.org/publications/pdf/R-342.pdf
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Post by ebrainsh on Jan 30, 2009 5:00:03 GMT
All,
I changed to thread to "Global Cooling Research" because we now have a community that is supporting this site. I urge you to continue posting Global Cooling Research papers on this thread so anyone (main stream media) can have easy access to them. It is my intent that this site will concentrate on the "Global Cooling" side of the argument.
EBrainsh
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Post by cyberzombie on Jan 30, 2009 18:52:28 GMT
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Post by ebrainsh on Jan 30, 2009 20:40:16 GMT
Thx cyber for the link. Frank Lansner did a fantastic job sleuthing through this data: CO2, Temperatures, and Ice Ages30 01 2009 Guest post by Frank Lansner, civil engineer, biotechnology. (Note from Anthony - English is not Frank’s primary language, I have made some small adjustments for readability, however they may be a few passages that need clarification. Frank will be happy to clarify in comments) It is generally accepted that CO2 is lagging temperature in Antarctic graphs. To dig further into this subject therefore might seem a waste of time. But the reality is that these graphs are still widely used as an argument for the global warming hypothesis. But can the CO2-hypothesis be supported in any way using the data of Antarctic ice cores? At first glance, the CO2 lagging temperature would mean that it’s the temperature that controls CO2 and not vice versa. But this is the climate debate, so massive rescue missions have been launched to save the CO2-hypothesis. So explanation for the unfortunate CO2 data is as follows: First a solar or orbital change induces some minor warming/cooling and then CO2 raises/drops. After this, it’s the CO2 that drives the temperature up/down. Hansen has argued that: The big differences in temperature between ice ages and warm periods is not possible to explain without a CO2 driver. To avoid too much noise in data, I summed up all these major temperature peaks into one graph: Except for the well known fact that temperature changes precede CO2 changes, the supposed CO2-driven raise of temperatures works ok before temperature reaches max peak. No, the real problem for the CO2-rescue hypothesis appears when temperature drops again. During almost the entire temperature fall, CO2 only drops slightly. In fact, CO2 stays in the area of maximum CO2 warming effect. So we have temperatures falling all the way down even though CO2 concentrations in these concentrations were supposed to be a very strong upwards driver of temperature. One thing is for sure: “Other factors than CO2 easily overrules any forcing from CO2. Only this way can the B-situations with high CO2 lead to falling temperatures.” This is essential, because, the whole idea of placing CO2 in a central role for driving temperatures was: “We cannot explain the big changes in temperature with anything else than CO2″. But simple fact is: “No matter what rules temperature, CO2 is easily overruled by other effects, and this CO2-argument falls”. So we are left with graphs showing that CO2 follows temperatures, and no arguments that CO2 even so could be the main driver of temperatures. - Another thing: When examining the graph fig 1, I have not found a single situation where a significant raise of CO2 is accompanied by significant temperature rise- WHEN NOT PRECEDED BY TEMPERATURE RISE. If the CO2 had any effect, I should certainly also work without a preceding temperature rise?! wattsupwiththat.com/2009/01/30/co2-temperatures-and-ice-ages/
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Post by ebrainsh on Jan 31, 2009 19:44:24 GMT
Posted today from our friend Dan Hogan at ScienceDaily. Fewer Days Of Extreme Cold And More Days Of Extreme Heat In EuropeScienceDaily (Jan. 31, 2009) — Scientists from the Complutense University of Madrid (UCM) have selected 262 European observatories which analysed the series of minimum and maximum daily temperatures from 1955 to 1998 to estimate trend variations in extreme temperature events. According to the study, in Europe days of extreme cold are decreasing and days of extreme heat increasing. From 0.5ºC to 1ºC in the average minimum temperature, and from 0.5ºC to 2ºC in the average maximum temperature. An example of the effects of days of extreme heat, which will increase in frequency, is the heatwave that hit Europe in 2003. That summer record maximum temperatures were recorded in monthly, weekly and daily scales. For example, in Switzerland a temperature of 41.50ºC was recorded while in Portugal, 47.30ºC. Experts warn that excessive heat can cause stress, worsening of diseases and even death, such as in the summer of 2003, when over 30,000 people died throughout Europe from the high temperatures. Except for the scorcher in 2003, what happened to the rest of the decade? www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/01/090130084127.htm
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