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Post by walterdnes on Mar 2, 2009 3:54:45 GMT
The February data for UAH daily temperatures is all in, and I've run my regressions again. Last month, I did a "gut-feeling" adjustment, which was close for the monthly satellite anomalies, but I don't really like "hand waving". I noticed after the fact, that the actual results were very close to the average of the regressions for the UAH ChLT and the near surface layer (Ch 04). So I'm using the average of the 2 regressions for February, without any additional adjustment. Hey, if the AGW people can use ensembles, why not me? Anyhow, the Feb 2009 projections off the spreadsheet are... Hadley | GISS | UAH | RSS | 0.474 | 0.56 | 0.338 | 0.324 |
Last week, the UAH daily temperatures for this year crossed from above the previous year's temps to below the previous year's temps. This is the first time since mid-December. There's still a ways to go for David Archibald's May 2009 prediction, but it's not as far-fetched as it looked on January 12th.
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Post by neilhamp on Mar 8, 2009 7:27:26 GMT
Roy Spencer is showing 0.35 as the February Temperature on his site
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Post by tacoman25 on Mar 8, 2009 23:50:14 GMT
Still cooler than 6 of the past 7 Februaries.
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Post by glc on Mar 9, 2009 1:12:07 GMT
Still cooler than 6 of the past 7 Februaries.
Yes but ... we do have a borderline La Nina at the moment ... the PDO has supposedly shifted to it's cool phase .... and the sun is currently in a deep solar minimum. The much trumpeted global cooling is simply not happening.
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Post by icefisher on Mar 9, 2009 5:44:12 GMT
Still cooler than 6 of the past 7 Februaries. Yes but ... we do have a borderline La Nina at the moment ... the PDO has supposedly shifted to it's cool phase .... and the sun is currently in a deep solar minimum. The much trumpeted global cooling is simply not happening. And neither is the even more (factor of 10?) trumpeted global warming!
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Post by poitsplace on Mar 9, 2009 7:33:51 GMT
Still cooler than 6 of the past 7 Februaries. Yes but ... we do have a borderline La Nina at the moment ... the PDO has supposedly shifted to it's cool phase .... and the sun is currently in a deep solar minimum. The much trumpeted global cooling is simply not happening. And neither is the even more (factor of 10?) trumpeted global warming! Over the last decade there's usually a spike in temperatures around December/January/February and then a month or two later it starts to fall. Let's at least expect the yearly warming and cooling where they're to be expected...heh, just like we should have expected it to start getting cooler about 2005-2010 (with or without knowledge of the PDO) instead of everyone starting this stupid crusade against CO2.
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Post by neilhamp on Mar 9, 2009 7:45:45 GMT
Looking at Roy's data so far this year 2009 is heading for "the 8th. warmest year since records began." This is how it will be spun.
The UK met office predicts 2009 will be the 5th. warmest year. If the current pattern continues 2009 will still be warmer than all years, except 1998, in the last decade of the last century
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Post by tacoman25 on Mar 10, 2009 3:18:46 GMT
Still cooler than 6 of the past 7 Februaries. Yes but ... we do have a borderline La Nina at the moment ... the PDO has supposedly shifted to it's cool phase .... and the sun is currently in a deep solar minimum. The much trumpeted global cooling is simply not happening. This La Nina didn't get going until about 4 months after the 2007-08 La Nina. Therefore, the real cooling from that shouldn't be expected to show up until the Mar-May period. Also, it's weird but RSS actually show a sizable DROP in temperature for February, down to .230.
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Post by walterdnes on Mar 10, 2009 3:18:59 GMT
RSS is 0.350 and UAH is 0.230. I had called 0.338 on UAH which is close, but I was 0.094 too high on UAH. I'm getting to be almost as bad as Hathaway, overestimating sunspot numbers.
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Post by magellan on Mar 10, 2009 4:18:39 GMT
RSS is 0.350 and UAH is 0.230. I had called 0.338 on UAH which is close, but I was 0.094 too high on UAH. I'm getting to be almost as bad as Hathaway, overestimating sunspot numbers. You've got it transposed; were very close for UAH, off on RSS. UAH is .35 RSS is .23 A large divergence from January, and in the opposite direction.
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Post by glc on Mar 10, 2009 10:47:46 GMT
This La Nina didn't get going until about 4 months after the 2007-08 La Nina. Therefore, the real cooling from that shouldn't be expected to show up until the Mar-May period.
Yes - but SST anomalies in the NINO regions have not gone above zero since before the start 2007/08 La Nina. Although ENSO status has 'officially' been neutral over the last six months, we've effectively had La Nina type conditions for the past 18 months.
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Post by nautonnier on Mar 10, 2009 11:22:47 GMT
This La Nina didn't get going until about 4 months after the 2007-08 La Nina. Therefore, the real cooling from that shouldn't be expected to show up until the Mar-May period.Yes - but SST anomalies in the NINO regions have not gone above zero since before the start 2007/08 La Nina. Although ENSO status has 'officially' been neutral over the last six months, we've effectively had La Nina type conditions for the past 18 months. Its called a negative PDO
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Post by tacoman25 on Mar 10, 2009 18:35:55 GMT
This La Nina didn't get going until about 4 months after the 2007-08 La Nina. Therefore, the real cooling from that shouldn't be expected to show up until the Mar-May period.Yes - but SST anomalies in the NINO regions have not gone above zero since before the start 2007/08 La Nina. Although ENSO status has 'officially' been neutral over the last six months, we've effectively had La Nina type conditions for the past 18 months. The trimonthlies never went above 0, but the Nino SSTAs themselves actually did for a bit in the May/June period. Also, look at upper ocean heat content. It also spiked warmer than normal during early summer, then slowly cooled through the fall until a fast drop in Nov/Dec.
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Post by magellan on Mar 11, 2009 2:11:58 GMT
This La Nina didn't get going until about 4 months after the 2007-08 La Nina. Therefore, the real cooling from that shouldn't be expected to show up until the Mar-May period.Yes - but SST anomalies in the NINO regions have not gone above zero since before the start 2007/08 La Nina. Although ENSO status has 'officially' been neutral over the last six months, we've effectively had La Nina type conditions for the past 18 months. Where is the heat hiding? Oceans? Nope. Atmosphere? Nope. Where is the missing heat? There is no heat "in the pipeline".
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Post by glc on Mar 11, 2009 13:13:48 GMT
Where is the heat hiding? Oceans? Nope. Atmosphere? Nope.
Where is the missing heat?
There is no heat "in the pipeline".
How does this address my point. I never claimed there was any "missing heat". I have simply maintained (from the outset) that predictions of cooling were not only premature - but probably wrong. I stand by that. If I go back over previous posts I'm sure that a number of posters (including yourself) predicted plunging temperatures over the past NH winter - mainly due to reduced solar activity. I disputed this and suggested that the drop in 2008 was a result of the 2007/08 La Nina. Even then temperatures didn't drop any where the levels they had during previous La Nina episodes.
I've already stated on another thread that there is an unexplained underlying warming trend since ~1900. I don't see it as catastrophic but it is there and it will likely continue. I accept a PDO shift may cause the warming to stall but I don't believe we'll go back to the temperatures we saw in the 1970s.
The data is currently supporting my reading of the situation. Yes there may well be another La Nina but this willl not be as strong as the one in 2007/08, so I don't expect 2009 to be as cool as 2008. The future long term temperature trend will be gently upwards.
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