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Post by nautonnier on Oct 28, 2020 10:44:38 GMT
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Oct 28, 2020 15:44:55 GMT
It will be moving incredibly fast when it comes ashore, and it's pretty small. We have been told to expect fewer than 5 hours of TS force winds, even though we are just east of where the center will go.
The 9th Ward should be well protected by the levee and flood gate system built by the Corps since Katrina. In fact, this will be the first real test of that system. I think it will do fine with this storm. A bigger problem in New Orleans is that a major turbine generator for the Sewerage and Water Board pumps is offline. That will reduce the system's pumping capacity by 1/3 for this storm. There could be some street flooding, but then again the speed of the storm and the relatively small size of the rain shield should keep rain amounts below 5 inches in the City, which the pumps should be able to handle.
Here in Waveland, we've been told to expect an 8 to 9 foot surge. We will see. I'm fine in my place up to 20 feet. The sad thing is the County just finished rebuilding the beaches from the other summer storms. An 8 foot surge will overwhelm the dunes and choke off the beach road with sand. I have access to a road half mile north of the beach, so I won't be cut off by the closed beach road. Some of my neighbors' streets' end in cul de sacs to the north, so the beach road is their only way out.
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 28, 2020 16:26:21 GMT
It will be moving incredibly fast when it comes ashore, and it's pretty small. We have been told to expect fewer than 5 hours of TS force winds, even though we are just east of where the center will go. The 9th Ward should be well protected by the levee and flood gate system built by the Corps since Katrina. In fact, this will be the first real test of that system. I think it will do fine with this storm. A bigger problem in New Orleans is that a major turbine generator for the Sewerage and Water Board pumps is offline. That will reduce the system's pumping capacity by 1/3 for this storm. There could be some street flooding, but then again the speed of the storm and the relatively small size of the rain shield should keep rain amounts below 5 inches in the City, which the pumps should be able to handle. Here in Waveland, we've been told to expect an 8 to 9 foot surge. We will see. I'm fine in my place up to 20 feet. The sad thing is the County just finished rebuilding the beaches from the other summer storms. An 8 foot surge will overwhelm the dunes and choke off the beach road with sand. I have access to a road half mile north of the beach, so I won't be cut off by the closed beach road. Some of my neighbors' streets' end in cul de sacs to the north, so the beach road is their only way out. Good to hear it should be on the small side. As always, we're rooting for you Mr. Phy.
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Post by sigurdur on Oct 28, 2020 18:15:07 GMT
Only 3 Category 2 #hurricanes (and no major hurricanes) have made continental US landfall this late in the calendar year on record: Halloween Hurricane (1899), Yankee Hurricane (1935) and Kate (1985). #Zeta has just intensified to a Cat 2 hurricane as it bears down on Louisiana. GIF
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 30, 2020 2:58:01 GMT
Watchers News has a slightly different play on Zeta's historical relationship. Fast-moving Hurricane "Zeta" made landfall at its peak strength near Cocodrie in southeastern Louisiana at 21:00 UTC on October 28, 2020. Its maximum sustained winds of 175 km/h (110 mph) at the time of landfall placed it on the upper edge of a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale and made it the strongest hurricane to make landfall anywhere in the continental US this late in the calendar year since the Halloween Hurricane of 1899.In reference to 1899, y'all will remember what happened in 1899. In 1899, the Mississippi River froze over.
Now granted ... the 1899 hurricane was after the February freeze-over. But ... www.nola.com/archive/article_c502d458-cc64-5ab2-808b-8aedceb1e754.html
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 31, 2020 12:14:01 GMT
There is another tropical storm in the gulf but patio furniture is safe unless you are in Central America. It is hoovering up the last of the heat South of Cuba
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Post by nautonnier on Nov 2, 2020 22:11:28 GMT
There is only so much warm water available for ETA
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Post by missouriboy on Nov 3, 2020 15:40:43 GMT
If Hurricane Eta gets into the highlands of Honduras with "feet" of rain, then the effects might be similar to Hurricane Mitch in 1998 (also a La Nina year). en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Mitch
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Nov 3, 2020 17:42:36 GMT
So, Zeta turned out to be a lot worse than I thought. We got caught in the extreme eastern, and then southern, eyewalls for almost 2 hours. We never quite got into the eye at my place. While the prediction was for a weakening CAT 1, we actually got a strengthening CAT 2 at land fall. Winds at the yacht club a half mile east of me were sustained in the 90s, with a couple of gusts up to 110. Although the surge was clearly 10 feet, maybe a bit more, it didn't get to my house, but tore the hell out of the marinas and public piers in Hancock and Harrison Counties.
Bottom line for me was a tense hour or two hunkered down in the house, the need for a new roof, over 20 trees down (some broken, some torn up by the roots) and various more minor things (it's fascinating to see what a 90 mph wind does to an outdoor ceiling fan). Power was out until 4PM Monday. That's five days. While the outage was an inconvenience for sure, it was more tolerable because a front followed the storm, and temps were in the 60s days and 40s nights. No AC needed. We actually lit fires every night for both light and heat. Miss C. and I spent the days with the neighbors cleaning up tree limbs, roof tiles and fence parts in the neighborhood, and in the evening we all got together to grill and share whatever was in our freezers. We did not go hungry! Like most things in life, it could have been worse. my only regret is that FEMA didn't send AOC to the coast to see what almost a week without electricity is like. Might have done her some good.
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Post by nautonnier on Nov 3, 2020 17:51:16 GMT
So, Zeta turned out to be a lot worse than I thought. We got caught in the extreme eastern, and then southern, eyewalls for almost 2 hours. We never quite got into the eye at my place. While the prediction was for a weakening CAT 1, we actually got a strengthening CAT 2 at land fall. Winds at the yacht club a half mile east of me were sustained in the 90s, with a couple of gusts up to 110. Although the surge was clearly 10 feet, maybe a bit more, it didn't get to my house, but tore the hell out of the marinas and public piers in Hancock and Harrison Counties. Bottom line for me was a tense hour or two hunkered down in the house, the need for a new roof, over 20 trees down (some broken, some torn up by the roots) and various more minor things (it's fascinating to see what a 90 mph wind does to an outdoor ceiling fan). Power was out until 4PM Monday. That's five days. While the outage was an inconvenience for sure, it was more tolerable because a front followed the storm, and temps were in the 60s days and 40s nights. No AC needed. We actually lit fires every night for both light and heat. Miss C. and I spent the days with the neighbors cleaning up tree limbs, roof tiles and fence parts in the neighborhood, and in the evening we all got together to grill and share whatever was in our freezers. We did not go hungry! Like most things in life, it could have been worse. my only regret is that FEMA didn't send AOC to the coast to see what almost a week without electricity is like. Might have done her some good. Then when you get the power back on - the news doesn't cover it and it is like everyone forgot about the hurricane. Back 2004 after Charley went through I decided that there was no way I was going to sit for a few days with no power - so I got a generator and spur that off to the next door neighbors who are 15 years older ;-) Of course you are still cut off from everything as all the other power systems are down but you don't have to eat all the food in the freezer. Once star link is up and running then there will be no reason to be cut off again and all comms will work as long as you have terrestrial power. Hope you get your roof fixed and don't have to live under a tarp for too long.
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Post by nautonnier on Nov 3, 2020 17:54:02 GMT
There is just a chance that this could come North or even cross Florida and come here.
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Post by nautonnier on Nov 4, 2020 2:25:49 GMT
Joe agrees with the model above
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Post by nautonnier on Nov 4, 2020 12:55:04 GMT
And another model that brings the storm back North
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Post by nautonnier on Nov 4, 2020 19:46:14 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Nov 5, 2020 13:50:27 GMT
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