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Post by gahooduk on Apr 30, 2009 21:52:14 GMT
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Post by woodstove on Apr 30, 2009 22:09:23 GMT
Glaciers will weigh more in NH in September 2009 than they did in September 2008. There will be the occasional heat wave that the media pounces on. They will not report on Alaska's second-in-a-row cold summer, which I'm also predicting here. |
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Post by tacoman25 on Apr 30, 2009 22:43:52 GMT
The UK is just a tiny part of the NH anyway...I'm going with NH temps similar to last summer, maybe slightly cooler. |
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Post by gettingchilly on Apr 30, 2009 23:13:46 GMT
My prediction is an early mild summer, May, June, July and then rain and heading into a colder winter than last year starting early, probably late September.
Re-roof you sheds right now, else you might have to wait another year.
Just a prediction of course.
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Post by sigurdur on May 1, 2009 1:33:57 GMT
My prediction is for the NH summer to be .2C cooler than last year.
In my area of the world it would have to warm up to only be .2C cooler and we aren't warming.
But as a whole, with the PDO neg and solar 24 on vacation, I will stick to my prediction.
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Post by glc on May 4, 2009 22:42:25 GMT
I assume predictions are based on UAH satellite temperatures. Last year UAH anomalies for Jun, Jul & Aug were +0.01, +0.10 & +0.18 respectively giving an average for the summer of ~0.10 deg. I reckon the still slightly cool SSTs will hold temperatures back a bit over the coming months, but it will be warmer than last year.
I go for a JJA NH anomaly of +0.28 - or, to put it another way, about 0.2 deg warmer than 2008.
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Post by gahooduk on May 4, 2009 23:28:34 GMT
I assume predictions are based on UAH satellite temperatures. Last year UAH anomalies for Jun, Jul & Aug were +0.01, +0.10 & +0.18 respectively giving an average for the summer of ~0.10 deg. I reckon the still slightly cool SSTs will hold temperatures back a bit over the coming months, but it will be warmer than last year. I go for a JJA NH anomaly of +0.28 - or, to put it another way, about 0.2 deg warmer than 2008. although being a AWG sceptic, i must in some ways agree that so far 2009 in slightly warmer, the spring on my allotment and planting dates for vegtables is a few days behind but with no frosts ,so on average all the veg is ahead so far 2009 is warmer . but that is not objective, just a gut feeling....if it is warm i'll invite you to a BBQ in July...Markyate Herts |
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Post by Belushi TD on May 5, 2009 21:48:51 GMT
Hey all.
I'm going to go with cooler in the NH this summer, but not by a whole lot. Continuing the short two to three year trend.
However....
Over the last week, its been warmer here in Anchorage than it was ALL LAST YEAR. 75 I think, three or four days in a row. The high temp for last year was 72 or 73.
Great weather for my graduation, of course, so I'm not complaining.
MS in Applied Environmental Science and Technology, for those of you who might care.
Belushi TD
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Post by woodstove on May 5, 2009 21:51:57 GMT
Hey all. I'm going to go with cooler in the NH this summer, but not by a whole lot. Continuing the short two to three year trend. However.... Over the last week, its been warmer here in Anchorage than it was ALL LAST YEAR. 75 I think, three or four days in a row. The high temp for last year was 72 or 73. Great weather for my graduation, of course, so I'm not complaining. MS in Applied Environmental Science and Technology, for those of you who might care. Belushi TD Congrats, Belushi! Enjoy the warmth; y'all are due ... |
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Post by Belushi TD on May 5, 2009 23:01:31 GMT
Thanks, Woodstove!
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Post by walterdnes on May 6, 2009 4:55:04 GMT
Looking at a plot of monthly temperatures, there seems to be an approximately 2-year cycle recently (QBO ??)... - There was a local minimum in May of 2006 for the 4 global temperature anomaly series that I follow (Hadley/GISS/UAH/RSS).
- From there, they all turned upwards, until hitting a peak in January 2007
- From there, they all turned downwards. Hadley and GISS had "Ye Greate Januarie Surprise" in 2008, courtesy of la Nina. I'm ignoring that; La Nina isn't part of the cycle. However, UAH and RSS bottomed out in May of 2008. Hadley and GISS also had weaker local minimums that month.
Fast-forward 2 years... - There was a noticable local minimum in May of 2008 for UAH and RSS, and weaker ones for Hadley in April/May and GISS in June.
- From there, they all turned upwards; UAH/RSS peaked January or February of 2009. Hadley and GISS seem to have peaked in October or November of 2008.
If we extrapolate from there (yeah, I know it's a bit weak), then global anomalies should be trending downwards now through to May of 2010. So I expect a cooler summer than people became accustomed to in the 1990's, although not necessarily below long-term normals. Going beyond summer, even with neutral ENSO, I expect the winter of 2009/2010 to rival 2007/2008. With a strong La Nina, watch out for food and fuel shortages. |
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Post by boxman on May 7, 2009 15:16:00 GMT
The last few summers here in middle of Norway has been drier and with temperatures above average. I expect more or less the same this year but also believe that fall might come earlier which also has been the case for the last few summers.
A weak la nina seems to oddly enough have a positive effect on summers here. 1998 the year with the strong el nino was the wettest and coldest summer in my memory. The maximum temperatures never went over 25c and we also had very few days with above 20c temperatures.
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Post by sizzler on May 9, 2009 21:38:02 GMT
For the UK where I live, I predict that it will be generally cool with isolated warm periods thoughout the summer. The last 2 summers have been cool here because the jet stream has run on a path across the UK, bringing areas of low pressure and rain, whereas Scandinavia which normally gets rain from the jet stream has been dry (I went on a cruise to the Arctic 2 years ago when the UK weather was bad, and the weather as far north as Tromso was warm and sunny).
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Post by socold on May 10, 2009 13:50:30 GMT
The satellite records will show a large jump at the end of summer, about july/august time. The surface records will show it this month.
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Post by pidgey on May 10, 2009 17:22:13 GMT
The satellite records will show a large jump at the end of summer, about july/august time. The surface records will show it this month. MAV used to say stuff like that. |
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