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Post by walterdnes on Jun 4, 2009 6:02:46 GMT
Last month, I waited till RSS was in to adjust my raw projection based off UAH daily temps. For April, the adjusted projection versus reported temps were... # UAH projected 0.145 actual 0.091 # GISS projected 0.47 actual 0.44 # Hadley projected 0.383 actual 0.388 Not too shabby for GISS and Hadley, but UAH is a bit of a wildcard. Comparing this to election projections, I wait till 25% of the results come in before making a projection Now for May. The raw projections (these are *NOT* my May projections) and slopes are as follows RSS 0.156 ; 0.985 UAH 0.050 ; 1.089 GISS 0.56 ; 0.563 Hadley 0.433 ; 0.423 As others have already pointed out, RSS for May is 0.090 which is 0.066 cooler than the raw projection. Taking the 0.066, and the relative slopes, I get the following projections. These are my May projections. UAH = 0.050 - 0.066 * 1.089 / 0.985 = -0.023 GISS = 0.56 - 0.066 * 0.563 / 0.985 = 0.53 Hadley = 0.433 - 0.066 * 0.423 / 0.985 = 0.404 UAH seems to be the least reliable projection. We'll see what happens.
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Post by glc on Jun 4, 2009 13:38:58 GMT
UAH seems to be the least reliable projection. We'll see what happens.
UAH is +0.04. The use of different satellites for the source data does appear to make it more difficult to predict.
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Post by icefisher on Jun 4, 2009 19:55:05 GMT
UAH seems to be the least reliable projection. We'll see what happens.UAH is +0.04. The use of different satellites for the source data does appear to make it more difficult to predict. But we are at the cross roads. With cusp El Nino conditions and the sun showing signs of life the fact last May marked the nadir of last years temp drop, will temps start climbing at this point this year too? If so the question is do they climb enough to surpass Jan 2006 or do they decline below where the baseline is?
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Post by duwayne on Jun 5, 2009 2:58:16 GMT
UAH seems to be the least reliable projection. We'll see what happens.UAH is +0.04. The use of different satellites for the source data does appear to make it more difficult to predict. But we are at the cross roads. With cusp El Nino conditions and the sun showing signs of life the fact last May marked the nadir of last years temp drop, will temps start climbing at this point this year too? If so the question is do they climb enough to surpass Jan 2006 or do they decline below where the baseline is? My projection for the May UAH was +0.03C versus +0.04C actual. I think we'll move up from here reaching what I think is the trend line temperature of 0.27C by August. CFS continues to forecast a very significant EL Nino with an ONI of over 2.0 by year-end which could result in record monthly temperatures later this year, but all longer-term ENSO forecasts are notoriously unreliable.
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Post by neilhamp on Jun 6, 2009 6:10:16 GMT
The running mean UAH data for the first 5 months of each year
1998 0.65 1999 0.11* 2000 0.03* 2001 0.20* 2002 0.36 2003 0.31 2004 0.30 2005 0.38 2006 0.26 2007 0.38 2008 -0.02* 2009 0.20
So far, 2009 is cooler than 6 out of the last 7 years 0.13 degrees below the 2002/7 mean
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Post by walterdnes on Jun 12, 2009 4:20:54 GMT
GISS is in at +0.55.
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Post by tacoman25 on Jun 12, 2009 4:30:26 GMT
According to AMSU daily data, all of the lower/mid troposphere channels are now cooler than last year. Ch.5, which according to Roy Spencer is the closest representation of UAH trends, is currently .33F cooler than last year. Ch. 6, at 25,000 ft, is .53F cooler than last year. And June 2008 was quite cool, with a -.114 anomaly.
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Post by woodstove on Jun 12, 2009 13:20:57 GMT
So for May we have UAH declining by .05 and GISS increasing by .11 giving an increase in divergence between the two of .16 Something tells me that the divergence between the two will grow more for June as well, maybe dramatically.
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Post by jimcripwell on Jun 12, 2009 13:27:38 GMT
woodstove. May data from NOAA will be available on Monday 15th. HAD/CRU shortly thereafter. I suggest we wait until these figures are in before we pass judgement.
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Post by woodstove on Jun 12, 2009 14:09:57 GMT
woodstove. May data from NOAA will be available on Monday 15th. HAD/CRU shortly thereafter. I suggest we wait until these figures are in before we pass judgement. Hi Jim. I am not talking about NOAA and HAD/CRU. I'm talking about GISS and UAH. No royal we needed. Peace, Harold
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Post by jimcripwell on Jun 12, 2009 14:20:03 GMT
Harold, I am suggesting there may be a difference between the satellite data and ground based data. Surely it makes sense to look at all three ground based data sets before passing judgement.
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Post by woodstove on Jun 12, 2009 15:07:20 GMT
Harold, I am suggesting there may be a difference between the satellite data and ground based data. Surely it makes sense to look at all three ground based data sets before passing judgement. Hi Jim. One of the best aspects of a forum such as this is that every participant passes his/her own judgments. It sort of sounded like you didn't want me to form my own judgment. I am in the midst of writing a book for which I have done my own research into why these two competing anomalies so frequently diverge. I find the relationship between the two of them to be interesting. You are of course free to examine all the data you like and to make your own statements. And I will continue to read your comments with interest and respect.
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Post by socold on Jun 12, 2009 18:58:34 GMT
GISTEMP includes SST, UAH does not. It's as simple as that.
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Post by woodstove on Jun 12, 2009 19:09:35 GMT
Right you are, socold, except ... Oh, no, sorry, you are completely wrong. There are dozens of significant differences between the two products. The only one I'm going to mention here though is the Global Historical Climatology Network. If you think Hansen's personal knowledge of the surface station network in the United States is pitiful, and it is, you might want to contemplate how much he knows about the global network on which gistemp relies. The answer is next to nothing. As Gavin Schmidt has written, the idea that anyone at GISS has time to examine the data they receive more than superficially is "laughable." I promise you that it would be impossible to exaggerate the amount of questionable data provided by the GHCN. Impossible.
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Post by socold on Jun 12, 2009 19:12:27 GMT
Right I guess you are suggesting that in the past month millions of AC units got installed next to temperature sensors, or something equally ridiculous.
At least think about your arguments before you make them. That way you won't make silly arguments.
We are talking about a divergance in one single month between GISTEMP and UAH. The obvious answer for this is that SST have increased significantly in the past 3 months and this hasn't yet affected UAH due to lag time, but immediately affects GISTEMP. Yes we can expect UAH and RSS to jump up significantly in the next few months.
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