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Post by byz on Aug 6, 2009 17:45:48 GMT
I've been seeing very early signs of Autumn this year (it's only 6th August).
The spiders in my garden are webbing everywhere (normally we don't get this until September) I keep getting webs in my face when I go slug flinging at night and watering the plants in the morning (in September the morning dew alerts you to their presents).
We are now getting fully ripe blackberry clusters (normally the ends only ripen at this time of year).
Elderberries are ripening early.
My second early potatoes are ready (normally late August)
Worst of all my Tomatoes are only just ripening (this time last year we were drowning in them)
I'll put up a survey for different regions
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Post by alex4ever on Aug 6, 2009 20:46:50 GMT
We had unusually many thunderstorms (first historic appearance of Mammatus cloud) and colder than normal windy days (especially nights) in June lasting since 15 (exact numder) of July, 15 days of normally warm weather (as every year) followed lasting till yesterday. From now on- and as forecasts show- from Saturday a strongly unusual cool pattern will prevail for 5 days locked for sure clearly a sign of too early autumn (yes i can state that), though we still cant know if this weather pattern will continue till after mid august , what i can state easily is the too cool to be normal air masses which are about to prevail in the most part of South Europe. It may be the beggining of the more vivid "symptoms" also called as "Weather is not climate" facts ;D Though i dont like supporting an idea without having proof about it , i just speculate.
(And one note here, watch the concentration of strong cold water masses in north Atlantic and the "cold spot" appearing in pacific ocean near the el nino (sst maps) )
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Post by lyrch75 on Aug 6, 2009 21:44:11 GMT
A few of my decorative red oaks are starting to show some leaves in the brilllaint red that they take on in the fall.
My cayenne peppers are starting to red, but only about 1/3 - 1/2 the size of normal.
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Post by byz on Aug 7, 2009 8:00:04 GMT
Well after a muggy night I woke up this morning to thick fog (even the streetlights were on!)
Normally the rain that came up from France would have caused Thunderstorms but none happened.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 8, 2009 0:22:43 GMT
I've been seeing very early signs of Autumn this year (it's only 6th August). The spiders in my garden are webbing everywhere (normally we don't get this until September) I keep getting webs in my face when I go slug flinging at night and watering the plants in the morning (in September the morning dew alerts you to their presents). We are now getting fully ripe blackberry clusters (normally the ends only ripen at this time of year). Elderberries are ripening early. My second early potatoes are ready (normally late August) Worst of all my Tomatoes are only just ripening (this time last year we were drowning in them) I'll put up a survey for different regions I was in the UK last week and was surprised to see masses of berries on the Rowan trees - these are not normally around until mid-September
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Post by casador06 on Aug 8, 2009 3:34:51 GMT
First time for me , I have been reading and learning as much as I can in the last couple of months.... Here in LA, AKA, Lower Alabama. The summer has been on the cool side and my garden has produced 3 tomatoes so far!! I wish we were getting warmer!
Caz
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Post by snowguy716 on Aug 8, 2009 23:06:56 GMT
I never buy into these "early autumn spells this or that" theories anymore. Everybody was telling me in fall 1999 "wow... look at the deer, they've changed their color and are already getting ready for winter.. it's gonna be a tough one"
First of all, deer spend their entire lives outside of mating, getting ready for winter.
Secondly, that winter (1999/2000) was one of the warmest, driest, and shortest winters on record with particularly warm conditions in November, February, and March that brought record early ice-out dates to area lakes.
The summer of 2004 was particularly cool and everybody said "oh, we're going to have a cold, early fall" because a few of the maples began to change color in early August.
When trees change color in early August, it's because that individual tree has a stress of some kind, be it disease, drought, too much water, etc.
Fall 2004 was particularly pleasant and the fall colors were later (and much more vivid... probably the most beautiful fall I've ever experienced) than normal.
In fall 2006, my grandpa kept saying "we're not going to get any snow this winter... the ground squirrels have only built their mounds a few inches off the ground"... well, he was right until we got 3 feet of snow in late February.
I mean, this anecdotal stuff just doesn't add up. Also, animals can be tricked too. Their normal yearly patterns most certainly aren't always driven by year-to-year weather changes.
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Post by stevenotsteve on Aug 8, 2009 23:36:12 GMT
snowguy716. this anecdotal stuff just doesn't add up.
It's not really supposed to add up, it just for the gut feeling people. So far in my uk zone i can't really say that I've seen any autumn but I'm still waiting for summer to arrive (glass half full mode). It's not about science but if enough strange things happen you can be fairly sure something is changing.
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Post by woodstove on Aug 9, 2009 1:45:59 GMT
I never buy into these "early autumn spells this or that" theories anymore. Everybody was telling me in fall 1999 "wow... look at the deer, they've changed their color and are already getting ready for winter.. it's gonna be a tough one" First of all, deer spend their entire lives outside of mating, getting ready for winter. Secondly, that winter (1999/2000) was one of the warmest, driest, and shortest winters on record with particularly warm conditions in November, February, and March that brought record early ice-out dates to area lakes. The summer of 2004 was particularly cool and everybody said "oh, we're going to have a cold, early fall" because a few of the maples began to change color in early August. When trees change color in early August, it's because that individual tree has a stress of some kind, be it disease, drought, too much water, etc. Fall 2004 was particularly pleasant and the fall colors were later (and much more vivid... probably the most beautiful fall I've ever experienced) than normal. In fall 2006, my grandpa kept saying "we're not going to get any snow this winter... the ground squirrels have only built their mounds a few inches off the ground"... well, he was right until we got 3 feet of snow in late February. I mean, this anecdotal stuff just doesn't add up. Also, animals can be tricked too. Their normal yearly patterns most certainly aren't always driven by year-to-year weather changes. Winter 1999-2000 was vicious in the U.S. northeast. Pond skating in New England earlier and later than usual (by quite a measure). No shortage of snow. I guess it's surprising that you would attempt to suppress people's efforts to be witnesses to the natural world in their own vicinity and perhaps try to see patterns among the various postings. As for animals, I would say that most of them know more than you think they know. Perhaps your views will become more like your grandfather's as you get a few more winters under your belt.
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Post by solartrack on Aug 9, 2009 15:34:54 GMT
snowguy716 wrote: "I never buy into these "early autumn spells this or that... theories anymore. ... I mean, this anecdotal stuff just doesn't add up."
Early cultures spent a lot of effort on seasonal predictions for food production reasons. Farmers too, who gamble with each crop planting have to 'trust' something in selection and planting times other than just the calendar.
For us it may be a hobby now, but with huge crop losses looming this year due to short growing seasons in higher temperate regions this year you will begin to 'buy' into higher food prices shortly.
Urbanites generally have little awareness of set days, chill days, degree days, etc that impact crop output. The last 40 yrs have been kind. Cool summers and early autumn freezes have an impact that cannot be ignored locally. When these impact harvest time the risk is tremendous whether its a too wet field or an early freeze. The farmers (remember these guys that feed us?) have to rely on 'gut' calls several times a year to survive.
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Post by bender on Aug 9, 2009 16:36:11 GMT
Forecasters lower Atlantic hurricane outlook MIAMI — Government forecasters on Thursday lowered their outlook for the rest of the Atlantic hurricane season after a quiet start with no named storms in the first two months of the six-month stretch. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said it expects a near-normal to below-normal season with fewer named storms. The update to NOAA's May forecast comes after the climate pattern El Nino developed over the Pacific Ocean, acting as a damper to tropical storms in the Caribbean and neighboring Atlantic. But forecasters at NOAA's National Hurricane Center warned people to remain vigilant because the peak period for hurricanes runs from this month through October. The overall season lasts from June through November. The updated forecast calls for seven to 11 named tropical storms, down from a range of nine to 14 in the May forecast. Three to six storms could become hurricanes, down from four to seven in the earlier forecast. The new projection says one or two hurricanes could become major storms, instead of one to three major hurricanes. www.usatoday.com/weather/hurricane/2009-08-06-hurricane-outlook_N.htm
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 9, 2009 22:05:43 GMT
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Post by snowguy716 on Aug 10, 2009 21:43:18 GMT
That's Nov-Mar 1999-2000. Notice the scale with the red being 9˚F above normal. It was by far our warmest such period on record here in northern Minnesota... and it was a La Niña winter.. which are usually colder than average. It was just a fluke winter. But still.
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Post by snowguy716 on Aug 10, 2009 21:53:27 GMT
I can attest to that. I'm 100 miles east of Grand Forks in the Northwoods of northern MInnesota, where it has been even colder relative to average... and also much drier than normal since March. We had our coldest May-July period on record and our coldest July on record after a very cool May and June. If this El Niño holds on, we may see a cooler than normal autumn, as is often the case during El Niños. The weaker than normal polar jet gets overwhelmed by the cooling Arctic air earlier than normal because it can't hold it at bay, and so the air flushes southward in October and early November rather than December-January. By the time the jet has strengthened, much of that cold air has been exhausted and it results in a very zonal pattern during December which brings warm, cloudy, and dry conditions to the region from the Pacific ocean. October-December 2002 is a classic example. On the other end of hte spectrum, La Niñas often see very strong polar jets that keep the cold air at bay, so fall can be quite pleasant... but that cold air eventually overpowers the strong jet and it drops southward.. which is why November-December during La Niña years can be quite nasty up here. October-December 2008 is a good example of that.
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Post by woodstove on Aug 10, 2009 22:46:00 GMT
That's Nov-Mar 1999-2000. Notice the scale with the red being 9˚F above normal. It was by far our warmest such period on record here in northern Minnesota... and it was a La Niña winter.. which are usually colder than average. It was just a fluke winter. But still. www.crrel.usace.army.mil/ierd/tectran/IERD29.pdfNOAA temp maps are frequently way off. This one certainly is. Narragansett Bay froze nearly in toto in 1999-2000, something that doesn't happen very often anymore. Wickford Harbor froze earlier than in memory. My heating bill was, I hope, the highest that I will ever pay. I wonder what other parts of the country, besides the Northeast, the map has wrong?
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