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Post by gdfernan on Sept 7, 2009 4:28:01 GMT
I wanted the title to read "How to tell neighbor Joe/Jane why I dont believe in AGW" but there was no room in the title line ;D. Seriously I have been thinking of writing an article that could express in everyday terms the scientific reasons for being sceptical about AGW. Although it would not be a scientific article, I want to include citations to back up the points. I thought of identifying about 5 points and then expanding them into an article of about 1,500 words. This would be available in public for anyone who would want to discuss the issue with alarmist friends/acquaintances. I thought of some points to include. 1. The recent flatlining in global temperature even as CO2 continues to rise. 2. The failure of models to ex-ante predict temperature rises in the future. I thought of using Hansen's predictions of 20 years ago for this. 3. The absence of proof for positive feedback on which most of the hysterical alarmism rests. 4. The growing evidence for the medieval warm period and even to a certain extent for the roman warm period. (If temperatures rose to current levels previously without any SUVs or Big Coal, then maybe the current rise is also not due to SUVs) 5. Global warming observed on Mars? Please discuss the following A. Is there such an article already written? B. Can anyone suggest other points that may be more compelling C. Should 1 & 2 be part of the same point. D. Is the 5th point worthwhile? Let the games, I mean conversation begin
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Post by Ratty on Sept 7, 2009 7:16:14 GMT
On Point A, there is this which seems to go some way: joannenova.com.au/globalwarming/skepticshandbook1-4.pdfI find most people my age (>60) are VERY sceptical but not motivated to do research. Some of them have asked me to stop talking about GW because it's all too difficult to comprehend. (FWIW, I do not have a scientific background). Younger people KNOW it's our fault because that's all they hear from the media and at school.
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Post by dopeydog on Sept 7, 2009 11:52:42 GMT
Skeptics like Bill Gray can predict climate changes like PDO changes and their effect on the climate 10 years out. AGW'rs like Jim Hansen are cluesless about those changes.
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Post by curiousgeorge on Sept 7, 2009 12:11:25 GMT
I wanted the title to read "How to tell neighbor Joe/Jane why I dont believe in AGW" but there was no room in the title line ;D. Seriously I have been thinking of writing an article that could express in everyday terms the scientific reasons for being sceptical about AGW. Although it would not be a scientific article, I want to include citations to back up the points. I thought of identifying about 5 points and then expanding them into an article of about 1,500 words. This would be available in public for anyone who would want to discuss the issue with alarmist friends/acquaintances. I thought of some points to include. 1. The recent flatlining in global temperature even as CO2 continues to rise. 2. The failure of models to ex-ante predict temperature rises in the future. I thought of using Hansen's predictions of 20 years ago for this. 3. The absence of proof for positive feedback on which most of the hysterical alarmism rests. 4. The growing evidence for the medieval warm period and even to a certain extent for the roman warm period. (If temperatures rose to current levels previously without any SUVs or Big Coal, then maybe the current rise is also not due to SUVs) 5. Global warming observed on Mars? Please discuss the following A. Is there such an article already written? B. Can anyone suggest other points that may be more compelling C. Should 1 & 2 be part of the same point. D. Is the 5th point worthwhile? Let the games, I mean conversation begin If your goal is to "capture hearts and minds", you would be better served by focusing on changing the target audience behavior. Demonstrate to them that their current behavior ( as guided by their belief in AGW ) is not conducive to their future well being, and their beliefs will follow. And I would not bother with comparisons to Mars, Venus or any other extraterrestrial body.
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Post by poitsplace on Sept 7, 2009 16:57:10 GMT
Younger people KNOW it's our fault because that's all they hear from the media and at school. I agree. In general most sheeple that care about AGW simply "know" that the science is entirely established as if a god had handed them the law of AGW on golden tablets. They don't care that there is literally just ONE piece of evidence (which doesn't necessarily apply to earth's atmosphere) that would even suggest CO2 causes warming...and that everything else actually suggests CO2 doesn't. It doesn't mean I don't try...but look at socold there. He's literally said if we suddenly went into another little ice age he would believe that AGW was still there holding temperatures up.
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Post by socold on Sept 7, 2009 19:13:26 GMT
yes i did say that.
A little ice age caused by a severe drop in solar activity could not prove that doubling co2 causes little warming.
The existence of A cannot disprove the existence of B if A and B are independent. The effects of co2 are independent from the effects of the sun so I think this is the case.
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Post by socold on Sept 7, 2009 19:23:57 GMT
I wanted the title to read "How to tell neighbor Joe/Jane why I dont believe in AGW" but there was no room in the title line ;D. Seriously I have been thinking of writing an article that could express in everyday terms the scientific reasons for being sceptical about AGW. Although it would not be a scientific article, I want to include citations to back up the points. I thought of identifying about 5 points and then expanding them into an article of about 1,500 words. This would be available in public for anyone who would want to discuss the issue with alarmist friends/acquaintances. I thought of some points to include. 1. The recent flatlining in global temperature even as CO2 continues to rise. 2. The failure of models to ex-ante predict temperature rises in the future. I thought of using Hansen's predictions of 20 years ago for this. 3. The absence of proof for positive feedback on which most of the hysterical alarmism rests. 4. The growing evidence for the medieval warm period and even to a certain extent for the roman warm period. (If temperatures rose to current levels previously without any SUVs or Big Coal, then maybe the current rise is also not due to SUVs) 5. Global warming observed on Mars? Please discuss the following A. Is there such an article already written? B. Can anyone suggest other points that may be more compelling C. Should 1 & 2 be part of the same point. D. Is the 5th point worthwhile? Let the games, I mean conversation begin 1. A single volcanic eruption emits thousands of times more co2 than all the co2 ever emitted by human activity. Volcano big, SUV small. 2. Melt ice cubes in a glass, the water level in the glass will fall not rise. Therefore sea level rising from melting ice is a fraud perpetrated by communist UN subcommittees. 3. Buy a fire extinguisher full of co2 and spray it around the room asking them if they can feel it getting any warmer. Clearly co2 cannot cause warming. 4. Eskimos were growing wine in boats over a melted arctic ocean 10,000 years ago.
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Post by icefisher on Sept 7, 2009 20:42:53 GMT
yes i did say that. A little ice age caused by a severe drop in solar activity could not prove that doubling co2 causes little warming. The existence of A cannot disprove the existence of B if A and B are independent. The effects of co2 are independent from the effects of the sun so I think this is the case. You are mostly wrong Socold because we all live within the giant experiment. If all the warming becomes attributed to something else it proves that increasing CO2 does not cause warming. Little minds all think alike!
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Post by msphar on Sept 7, 2009 20:50:35 GMT
I just wonder if those Eskimos favored vinus vinifera or interspecific root stock ?
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Post by Ratty on Sept 7, 2009 21:43:48 GMT
Gdfernan, Check your private messages on this board. Ratty
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Post by gdfernan on Sept 7, 2009 22:07:03 GMT
Gdfernan, Check your private messages on this board. Ratty Oops, how do I do that?
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Post by kiwistonewall on Sept 7, 2009 22:32:39 GMT
I'm pretty much banned (by she who must be obeyed) from upsetting the neighbours!
For me its heads you win, tails I lose. If we really are facing a big freeze, it is going to be massively disruptive of our live styles & standard of living. If the world goes into the big warm, then it is going to be massively disruptive of our live styles & standard of living.
Of course, if we go into the big freeze, while preparing for the big warm, the effects will be much worse.
I think the BEST thing to do is focus on ethics: To survive, we need strong communities, liberty and faith. These things can be promoted with your neighbours.
Encourage them to grow productive gardens. (What, you are NOT doing this yourselves?) Motivation can be Healthy living/saving/etc. The reality is, you are giving them survival skills. While you may not NEED to live off your garden (yet), now is the time to learn. (I'm no guns & stored food survivalist btw! - that is just asking for trouble from the ptb or rioting mobs.)
Discuss Liberty - the need to be free of Government interference at all levels. (This is more practical than political - you need to learn to stand on your own two feet, and not expect Govt handouts- the Govt will not have the ability to help in a crisis except to hand out worthless paper- potatoes can be worth their weight in gold!)
Faith & community: I go to an old time Presbyterian church. (I am more liberal, but can't stand "liberal" or emotional churches). Good old scots hard work & the 10 commandments & no nonsense! But the real point is building connections with people you can trust & have faith in when the bad times come.
All these are just old fashioned values. No need to behave like a nut or some kind of Old Testament Prophet.
So - learn to grow food. (Get the tools & skills) - encourage others. Build friendships with your neighbours. Participate in your community - church/community organisations etc.
Prepare to answer questions - but let the questions come from them. Let them ask WHY you garden, etc etc. After all, if you are doing NOTHING to prepare, then ask yourself why you need to tell others!
She who must be obeyed has approved content ;D
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Post by Ratty on Sept 7, 2009 23:03:31 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 8, 2009 1:52:46 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Sept 8, 2009 2:18:47 GMT
I'm pretty much banned (by she who must be obeyed) from upsetting the neighbours! [SNIP] She who must be obeyed has approved content ;D After forty-two years of marriage, I know my place too ... May I say here and now that I have convinced my better half about AGW so I must be doing something right. Or, maybe, it's because she HATES politicians.
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