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Post by walterdnes on Sept 30, 2009 3:12:00 GMT
The CPC NOAA web site at www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/ has umpteen options. Go to the "Monthly-mean spatial anomalies" group and select the button where column "Anomaly" intersects row "T2m". The direct URL for that button is www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images/glbT2mMon.gif It has a 6-month anomaly forecast. If you believe that forecast, there will be a honking big El Nino during January/February/March 2010, and Western Canada (plus Alaska) will be well above normal temps. The 2010 Winter Olympics in the Greater Vancouver area may have problems with warm temps, lack of snow, and possibly even flooding. Edited to correct a typo; 2010, not 2009.
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Post by atra on Sept 30, 2009 5:02:12 GMT
We've had a week El Nino for a few months now, and the SOI has been positive in both the 30 and 90 day averages since September 13th. www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/30DaySOIValues/Looking at SST anomalies, this El Nino event looks strange, with warmer anomalies to the north, cooler to the south. The 2009 El Nino started around the same time as the 97 El Nino, but the 97 nino intensified much more rapidly. April 2, 2009: Sept 28, 2009: April 1, 1997: September 26, 1997 Conclusion: No super El Nino
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