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Post by Pooh on Oct 10, 2009 16:33:06 GMT
No, a realist is one who has a very open mind to data etc. A skeptic will cherry pick data to suit their needs. Agreed as to realist. As to cherry picking, I consider Dr. Richard Lindzen and Dr. Roy Spencer to be realists, and yet skeptical of attributing all global warming to anthropogenic emissions of CO 2. To reduce "cherry picking" to absurdity, a cherry-picker might argue that once the atmospheric concentration of CO2 reaches a "tipping point", the sign of CO2 "forcing" reverses and leads to cooling, which has been observed.
This would be the argument of an advocate (lawyer), not a scientist. |
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Post by socold on Oct 10, 2009 16:46:27 GMT
GISTEMP 0.65C
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Post by neilhamp on Oct 10, 2009 18:15:30 GMT
GISS is the highest so far this year
It will be interesting to see what HadCRU turns out to be
2009 is heading for the Met.Office prediction of fifth warmest year
HadCRU GISS (Difference)
J 0.38 0.53 +0.15
F 0.36 0.44 +0.08
M 0.36 0.47 +0.11
A 0.39 0.46 +0.07
M 0.4 0.56 +0.16
J 0.5 0.64 +0.14
J 0.5 0.6 +0.1
A 0.53 0.51 -0.02
S ?? 0.65 ??
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Post by sfbmikey on Oct 12, 2009 14:00:04 GMT
somebody who knows:
do the UAH figures contain only satellite atmospheric data, or do they add other stuff ? (like ocean surface, polar thermometers or somesuch)
there have been a lot of weird goings on in the ocean temperature front lately, wonder if that is having something to do with it.
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Post by neilhamp on Oct 21, 2009 5:47:13 GMT
We are still waiting for HadCRU3 September figures, but they will no doubt show further warming.
Earlier in the year the UK Met.Office claimed "2009 will be the fifth warmest year since records began"
HadCRU3 annual temperatures since 1998 have been: -
1998 0.54*
1999 0.29
2000 0.28
2001 0.41
2002 0.47*
2003 0.47*
2004 0.45*
2005 0.48*
2006 0.42
2007 0.41
2008 0.34
2009 0.44 (9months)
So far this year 2009 is heading for the sixth warmest year since records began.
Compared to their "Barbecue Summer" forcast it looks like the Met.Office have called this one about right.
Their UK winter forcast for this year is "temperatures near or above average and milder than last year"
I think this may cause them as much embarrasmement as the "barbecue summer"
They also predict "at least half of the years after 2009 will exceed the warmest year currently on record."
This means five of the next ten years must exceed 1998 which HADcru recorded as 0.526
Although I think this unlikely the anticipated period of "global cooling" predicted by the extended solar minimum and the reversal in the PDO is taking a long time to appear.
We haven't seen any WARMING in the past 10 years, but we haven't seen any significant COOLING either!
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Post by magellan on Oct 21, 2009 17:01:47 GMT
We are still waiting for HadCRU3 September figures, but they will no doubt show further warming. Earlier in the year the UK Met.Office claimed "2009 will be the fifth warmest year since records began" HadCRU3 annual temperatures since 1998 have been: - 1998 0.54* 1999 0.29 2000 0.28 2001 0.41 2002 0.47* 2003 0.47* 2004 0.45* 2005 0.48* 2006 0.42 2007 0.41 2008 0.34 2009 0.44 (9months) So far this year 2009 is heading for the sixth warmest year since records began. Compared to their "Barbecue Summer" forcast it looks like the Met.Office have called this one about right. Their UK winter forcast for this year is "temperatures near or above average and milder than last year" I think this may cause them as much embarrasmement as the "barbecue summer" They also predict "at least half of the years after 2009 will exceed the warmest year currently on record." This means five of the next ten years must exceed 1998 which HADcru recorded as 0.526 Although I think this unlikely the anticipated period of "global cooling" predicted by the extended solar minimum and the reversal in the PDO is taking a long time to appear. We haven't seen any WARMING in the past 10 years, but we haven't seen any significant COOLING either! HadCRU must average above .48 for the remainder of the year to place 2009 in the top 5. That there has been no warming for at least 9 years (conseratively), the trend down is actually exceeding the "long term" trend upward. Warmologists assume the "long term trend" is a linear function and since they necessarily attempted to eliminate the LIA and MWP from history must ignore any shorter trends that disagree with climate model predictions. Temperatures may very well rise in the future to reach the level of earlier warming periods, but don't be too excited that temperatures are not plummeting as that would be very bad news for all. "Significant cooling" is a subjective term, but statistically significant cooling is not. True Believers will continue to rely on whatever temperature record (I hesitate to say data) agrees with their preconceived conclusions. NOAA seems to be their favorite of late as it is the most warm biased.  |
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Post by neilhamp on Oct 22, 2009 8:01:38 GMT
Thanks for your comment magellan. With the seeming reviveal of the El Nino I can see the remaining months of 2009 averaging +0.480.
I agree that the warmists are placing a great deal of weight on NOAA. They don't seem to realize that the NOAA global trends are the odd one out in the four major sources of data.
The next 5 years should be of considerable interest. If the Met.Office prediction of half the years hotter than 1998 comes true, then "solar minimists", such as myself, may as well shut up. The downward trend in global temperatures from 2005 (0.482) to 2008 (0.326) was giving me some reassurance. A return to +0.450 is of concern.
A cold northern hemisphere winter this year will give me some heart but further recovery in the arctic next summer would be "the icing on the cake" (please forgive the pun)
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Post by glc on Oct 22, 2009 9:22:00 GMT
The next 5 years should be of considerable interest. If the Met.Office prediction of half the years hotter than 1998 comes true, then "solar minimists", such as myself, may as well shut up.
As I don't give much credence to the various solar theories I'm not surprised temperatures are not playing ball. However I do think ocean circulation is a factor and I'm a bit concerned because we're now supposedly in a negative PDO phase. I can actually see a possibility that 2010 will break the 1998 record (UAH - not GISS). I wouldn't go so far as to say it's probable but I reckon it's as high as 30%.
I'd certainly say the probability of warming is greater than that of cooling over the coming years.
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Post by woodstove on Oct 22, 2009 13:26:06 GMT
Your best hope for a warm year is this one.
The minor El Nino will buckle in early 2010. I share the opinion that it is likely to be followed by a La Nina and return to cool PDO (which is not very cool right now). As Joe Bastardi points out, the PDO is not warm or cool perpetually during its 30-year phases.
As for Met O's expectation of years warmer than 1998 becoming standard, I would say that the only thing that is standard is Met O's embarrassing itself with false predictions again and again.
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Post by magellan on Oct 22, 2009 13:30:01 GMT
The next 5 years should be of considerable interest. If the Met.Office prediction of half the years hotter than 1998 comes true, then "solar minimists", such as myself, may as well shut up. As I don't give much credence to the various solar theories I'm not surprised temperatures are not playing ball. However I do think ocean circulation is a factor and I'm a bit concerned because we're now supposedly in a negative PDO phase. I can actually see a possibility that 2010 will break the 1998 record (UAH - not GISS). I wouldn't go so far as to say it's probable but I reckon it's as high as 30%. I'd certainly say the probability of warming is greater than that of cooling over the coming years. I can actually see a possibility that 2010 will break the 1998 record (UAH - not GISS) Based on what? Surface temperature variations are tightly correlated with ENSO, and as the trend of Nino 3.4 has been steadily declining for the last several years, what do you base that on? Look at the numbers, they don't add up to 2010 going off the chart. NOAA, as usual, predicts El Nino will continue to strengthen, and again as usual predicts a warmer drier winter for the U.S. (gee, that sounds like AGW), but from what I've read the opposite will occur. Met O does not recognize PDO as a cyclical component of long term weather processes, hence their "predictions" must be based on something else. However, up until recently after their miserable failed predictions for 2007 to be the "hottest year on record", no mention of any cooling year can be found let alone decades long. Their 'new and improved' climate models miraculously replicated this past decade, after it happened. No, they, like the vast majority of AGW (caused by rising CO2 levels) proponents assumed a monotonical rise in surface temperatures onward and upward for 90 years. Of course now it is claimed "nobody ever said there wouldn't be cooling periods". The answer still appears to be in clouds and oceans, and as you don't give any credence to solar influences on these processes despite the recent published research, please explain what empirical evidence leads you to predict 2010 will exceed 1998. It is not impressive to have "predicted" 2009 would exceed 2008 as with virtually all ENSO events, the following year after La Nina and El Nino, temperatures rise and fall accordingly. |
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Post by glc on Oct 23, 2009 8:02:58 GMT
Your best hope for a warm year is this one.
The minor El Nino will buckle in early 2010. I share the opinion that it is likely to be followed by a La Nina and return to cool PDO (which is not very cool right now). As Joe Bastardi points out, the PDO is not warm or cool perpetually during its 30-year phases.
The "minor El Nino" is still producing higher tropospheric temperatures than during 1997, i.e. at a similar stage to the 1997/98 El Nino. It may well buckle but I still give it a ~30% chance that it will stengthen and extend into spring/summer 2010. That would be enough to push 2010 somewhere close to 1998. Remember the 1997/98 El Nino was over by May 1998.
Magellan:
It is not impressive to have "predicted" 2009 would exceed 2008 as with virtually all ENSO events, the following year after La Nina and El Nino, temperatures rise and fall accordingly.
I'm not saying it was impressive, but I don't recall too many other posters predicting a temperature rise in 2008. In fact, the common consensus on here and WUWT was that the solar minimum was responsible for the falling temperatures. The La Nina was barely mentioned. This was one of the reasons that prompted me to post on here. I always maintained that temperatures would recover and that there was no evidence of a sustained cooling trend.
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Post by neilhamp on Oct 23, 2009 9:23:35 GMT
Although I do not hold his "warmist" views, I have to agree with glc
Early in the year most people, myself included, were suggesting another "cool" year for 2009
glc told us all it would be warmer. He has proved correct.
He is now suggesting 2010 might (30% chance) be warmer than 1998
We can only wait and see.
I can only repeat my original statement. "The anticipated period of global cooling predicted by the extended solar minimum and the reversal in the PDO is taking a long time to appear."
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Post by socold on Oct 23, 2009 19:19:36 GMT
I think the chance that 2010 will be warmer than 1998 is very low, it would take a much bigger el nino that i don't think is going to happen
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Post by neilhamp on Oct 24, 2009 9:05:09 GMT
We are still waiting for HadCRUT3 Septemberglobal temperatures
For some reason they appear to have issued the September sea Temperature
0.275 0.220 0.245 0.307 0.355 0.500 0.511 0.496 0.360
I wonder if their global temperature will show a similar drop
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Post by magellan on Oct 26, 2009 17:03:42 GMT
Your best hope for a warm year is this one.
The minor El Nino will buckle in early 2010. I share the opinion that it is likely to be followed by a La Nina and return to cool PDO (which is not very cool right now). As Joe Bastardi points out, the PDO is not warm or cool perpetually during its 30-year phases. The "minor El Nino" is still producing higher tropospheric temperatures than during 1997, i.e. at a similar stage to the 1997/98 El Nino. It may well buckle but I still give it a ~30% chance that it will stengthen and extend into spring/summer 2010. That would be enough to push 2010 somewhere close to 1998. Remember the 1997/98 El Nino was over by May 1998. Magellan: It is not impressive to have "predicted" 2009 would exceed 2008 as with virtually all ENSO events, the following year after La Nina and El Nino, temperatures rise and fall accordingly. I'm not saying it was impressive, but I don't recall too many other posters predicting a temperature rise in 2008. In fact, the common consensus on here and WUWT was that the solar minimum was responsible for the falling temperatures. The La Nina was barely mentioned. This was one of the reasons that prompted me to post on here. I always maintained that temperatures would recover and that there was no evidence of a sustained cooling trend. You've also stated that either 2010 or 2011 would result in exceeding 1998, which they will not. Craig Loehle's analysis is that there is a definite cooling trend aloft. TREND ANALYSIS OF SATELLITE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE DATA www.ncasi.org/publications/Detail.aspx?id=3230What evidence again was there to support your notion temperatures would "recover" and switch back to warming? P.S. For neilhamp, I never suggested 2009 would be cooler than 2008. The most I've said is 2009 would not be in the "top 5" warmest, which for UAH and RSS it will not. Hadley is still out for lunch on that, and since they predicted it would, it wouldn't be surprising if somehow by pure coincidence and no influence on their part of course, 2009 ends up just squeaking by past 2004. No, I don't trust their "data". |
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