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Post by neilhamp on Oct 30, 2009 6:58:52 GMT
Sorry to repeat myself I wonder what is causing the delay in HadCRUT? It is normally out by 20th. of the month We are now almost in November and still no sign of their September anomoly I see WUWT has now spotted the delay We can only wait and see
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Post by glc on Nov 5, 2009 15:27:31 GMT
Hadley Sept Anomaly +0.46 which makes it quite a bit cooler than the satellite readings.
Note the Hadley base period is 1961-1990 while the satellite (RSS and UAH) is 1979-1998. Using the same base period as the satellites the Hadley anomaly would only be about +0.3 deg.
Using the 1979-1998 base period the GISS anomaly is +0.45.
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Post by neilhamp on Nov 5, 2009 19:04:02 GMT
Hadcrut mean to date for 2009 now running at 0.43 I think this would make it the 5th warmest year
Met Office forcast 2009 will be the fifth warmest year since records began Looks like they may have called this one right
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Post by socold on Nov 5, 2009 19:27:03 GMT
I always thought the met office prediction was lunacy. They could have said top 7 years or something to be safer of getting it right. But as it is they gambled something less likely and even now it will be a close call whether they get it right or not.
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Post by magellan on Nov 6, 2009 1:06:32 GMT
Hadcrut mean to date for 2009 now running at 0.43 I think this would make it the 5th warmest year Met Office forcast 2009 will be the fifth warmest year since records began Looks like they may have called this one right 5th warmest would be greater than .44. Currently the average for the year is .43. Using regression it is .404. Either way at the end of the year they'll converge. Oct-Dec must average (assuming no "adjustments") >.493 to end up in the "top 5 warmers years" according to HadCRUT's records.
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Post by neilhamp on Nov 6, 2009 2:35:32 GMT
Thank you magellan. I stand corrected
I see from a recent article at Climate Realists that Gavin Schmidt predicts "2010 may break a record, so a cooling trend will be never talked about again''.
This is a misquote. Checking Real Climate Gavin says he actually said that "2010 might break a record (given that it will start off with a reasonable sized El Nino), and that if it did, we'd stop hearing about the cooling from 1998 nonsense."
Has anyone seen a Met.Office prediction for 2010. The only Met.office claim I have seen is 5 of the next 10 years will be warmer than the hottest on record.
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Post by jurinko on Nov 6, 2009 19:23:27 GMT
UAH for October - 0.28 deg C.
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Post by neilhamp on Nov 24, 2009 21:22:36 GMT
I see the UK Met.Office are claiming 2009 is the 5th. warmest year on record. I am visiting my daughter in Boston at present and don't have access to my records I thought 6th. was more likely?
The Met.Office also claim:-
Next year we will see the influence of the warming El Nino current, and there is a 50% chance that global temperatures will hit an all-time high.
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Post by woodstove on Nov 24, 2009 22:24:44 GMT
I see the UK Met.Office are claiming 2009 is the 5th. warmest year on record. I am visiting my daughter in Boston at present and don't have access to my records I thought 6th. was more likely? The Met.Office also claim:- Next year we will see the influence of the warming El Nino current, and there is a 50% chance that global temperatures will hit an all-time high. I'll agree that there is a 50% chance that the Met O will experience a spending cut next year.
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Post by magellan on Nov 24, 2009 23:09:57 GMT
I see the UK Met.Office are claiming 2009 is the 5th. warmest year on record. I am visiting my daughter in Boston at present and don't have access to my records I thought 6th. was more likely? The Met.Office also claim:- Next year we will see the influence of the warming El Nino current, and there is a 50% chance that global temperatures will hit an all-time high. 2007 redux metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2007/pr20070104.html2007 - forecast to be the warmest year yet
2007 is likely to be the warmest year on record globally, beating the current record set in 1998, say climate-change experts at the Met Office.
Each January the Met Office, in conjunction with the University of East Anglia, issues a forecast of the global surface temperature for the coming year. The forecast takes into account known contributing factors, such as solar effects, El Niño, greenhouse gases concentrations and other multi-decadal influences. Over the previous seven years, the Met Office forecast of annual global temperature has proved remarkably accurate, with a mean forecast error size of just 0.06 °C.
Met Office global forecast for 2007
* Global temperature for 2007 is expected to be 0.54 °C above the long-term (1961-1990) average of 14.0 °C; * There is a 60% probability that 2007 will be as warm or warmer than the current warmest year (1998 was +0.52 °C above the long-term 1961-1990 average).
At least they dropped the probability by 10%, all purely for scientific reasons most assuredly.
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