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Post by flearider on May 3, 2015 22:44:20 GMT
"we have a pretty good idea how much temperatures have increased because of the increase in CO2" with the sun at max for 20+ yrs I don't think we do .. but we should do in another 20+ yrs either that or we'll all be dead.. then again maybe slaves ..
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Post by duwayne on May 4, 2015 16:21:26 GMT
"we have a pretty good idea how much temperatures have increased because of the increase in CO2" with the sun at max for 20+ yrs I don't think we do .. but we should do in another 20+ yrs either that or we'll all be dead.. then again maybe slaves .. Flearider, read the sentence I wrote again - all the way to the end - and see if you still still disagree.
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Post by flearider on May 4, 2015 16:46:39 GMT
earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-177.87,13.21,423 I'm sorry but when you look at this what do you see ? that's a question for everyone .. i'll tell you what I see. first the n/h they are just entering there winter but the seas are already cold. the pacific as well as the atlantic equator look ravaged to much cold on either side to warrant an el nino .. it's just like most of the heat well whats left is just being kept there .the only respite is the indian ocean .. we have the gulf stream and the Kuroshio Current weaning ..astro is saying 2 yrs till global cooling yet where I am in the uk it's very cool .. anyone else a little worried ??
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Post by flearider on May 4, 2015 16:53:22 GMT
"we have a pretty good idea how much temperatures have increased because of the increase in CO2" with the sun at max for 20+ yrs I don't think we do .. but we should do in another 20+ yrs either that or we'll all be dead.. then again maybe slaves .. Flearider, read the sentence I wrote again - all the way to the end - and see if you still still disagree. I'm sorry forgot the other reasons .. but you put the focus on co2 or you may have said just reasons . so it's either co2 or a combination of 100 things or we just don't know .. I'm happy with that answer ..
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Post by missouriboy on May 4, 2015 18:16:51 GMT
Hi Duwayne , just out of interest, what techniques do you use for your long range forecasting? Acidohm, In paragraphs 3 and 4 above I show how I calculated my predicted values. All you need are the historical values for the Hadcrut4 anomalies and the MVENSO and PDO. Past posts on this thread describe the rationale behind my forecasts. I'll post something in the next day or so when I get time which resummarizes my rationale. duwayne. I think the results of your forecast will be interesting. I now take my Hadcrud and Gistemp data with a sizeable portion of salt. As a comparison, you might consider a rerun of your method using the UAH Satellite-based temperatures (Roy Spencer). Perhaps less salt required . A strictly global ocean temperature timeseries would also be interesting. Having not found your exact methodology for incorporating AMO and PDO, I assume that their cold phases will tend to weight your least squares Hadcrud extrapolations downward. I'm always reminded of one line in a poem (I think it was called 'A Ballad to Ecological Awareness', or something to that effect). "No relationship in the world is linear for long!".
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Post by missouriboy on May 4, 2015 19:20:09 GMT
earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-177.87,13.21,423 I'm sorry but when you look at this what do you see ? that's a question for everyone .. i'll tell you what I see. first the n/h they are just entering there winter but the seas are already cold. the pacific as well as the atlantic equator look ravaged to much cold on either side to warrant an el nino .. it's just like most of the heat well whats left is just being kept there .the only respite is the indian ocean .. we have the gulf stream and the Kuroshio Current weaning ..astro is saying 2 yrs till global cooling yet where I am in the uk it's very cool .. anyone else a little worried ?? I was using the NOAA tool posted by Acidohm and looking at Atlantic SSTs. Looks like the 'cold-water blob' west of the British Isles and south of Iceland started showing up in ~September, 2014. It has since expanded to 'wall off' Northern Europe and Greenland from the warm waters of the Gulf Stream (at least in its surface expression). To use Nautonnier's lava lamp analogy, its seems that the 'warm-water blob' of the Norwegian Sea north of the British Isles and east of Iceland has been 'cut off' and is slowly cooling. That could account for your cool temps flearider. Surrounded by cold. www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/indicators/sea-temp-anom.php?begmonth=4&begday=1&begyear=2006&endmonth=4&endday=15&endyear=2015The last time the AMO started to cool, back around 1960 at the end of solar cycle 19, do we have any evidence of similar events taking place? Did the AMOC slow down or was it displaced eastward at a more southerly location? Can we get a 'Joe Bastardi' comparison? For that matter, was there a blob of warm water off California in the same general timeframe? Or...is something new going on?
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Post by duwayne on May 4, 2015 19:27:58 GMT
Duwayne the issue of other variables still sits in my mind. Solar cycles, Fe depletion of oceans and many other as yet undetermined issues. That's not say that I don't like your approach. The Hiatus indicates that other variables are significant but also agree that they should average out so long as we have an adequate time span and don't cherry pick start and finish dates. nonentropic, as you say, there are a lot of things to worry about when it comes to future global temperatures. A really big volcanic eruption or major meteor strike are 2 of the most feared. I focus pretty much on 1 variable, CO2, not because it is the most important, but because it is one of the most the talked about and one which can benefit from a different approach than the GC models.
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Post by nonentropic on May 4, 2015 19:36:45 GMT
PDF]“To Fe or not to Fe?” Iron fertilisation in the Southern Ocean There are many reference to the Fe link to CO2 sequestration or fish growth improvement. www.anta.canterbury.ac.nz/.../Turi%20McFarlane%20Review.pdfIts possible that this could feed the people and help fix the CO2 buildup in the atmosphere.
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Post by duwayne on May 4, 2015 20:22:30 GMT
Acidohm, In paragraphs 3 and 4 above I show how I calculated my predicted values. All you need are the historical values for the Hadcrut4 anomalies and the MVENSO and PDO. Past posts on this thread describe the rationale behind my forecasts. I'll post something in the next day or so when I get time which resummarizes my rationale. duwayne. I think the results of your forecast will be interesting. I now take my Hadcrud and Gistemp data with a sizeable portion of salt. As a comparison, you might consider a rerun of your method using the UAH Satellite-based temperatures (Roy Spencer). Perhaps less salt required . A strictly global ocean temperature timeseries would also be interesting. Having not found your exact methodology for incorporating AMO and PDO, I assume that their cold phases will tend to weight your least squares Hadcrud extrapolations downward. I'm always reminded of one line in a poem (I think it was called 'A Ballad to Ecological Awareness', or something to that effect). "No relationship in the world is linear for long!". Missouriboy, I use Hadcrut4 since it has the longest data record. It has led me to a methodolgy which can be applied to other anomalies. The one anomaly which didn't fit well with my methodology was UAH. Interestingly enough, there is a new updated version of UAH, version 6, which now fits. It looks more like RSS, the other satellite-based anomaly.
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Post by acidohm on May 4, 2015 20:31:39 GMT
duwayne. I think the results of your forecast will be interesting. I now take my Hadcrud and Gistemp data with a sizeable portion of salt. As a comparison, you might consider a rerun of your method using the UAH Satellite-based temperatures (Roy Spencer). Perhaps less salt required . A strictly global ocean temperature timeseries would also be interesting. Having not found your exact methodology for incorporating AMO and PDO, I assume that their cold phases will tend to weight your least squares Hadcrud extrapolations downward. I'm always reminded of one line in a poem (I think it was called 'A Ballad to Ecological Awareness', or something to that effect). "No relationship in the world is linear for long!". Missouriboy, I use Hadcrut4 since it has the longest data record. It has led me to a methodolgy which can be applied to other anomalies. The one anomaly which didn't fit well with my methodology was UAH. Interestingly enough, there is a new updated version of UAH, version 6, which now fits. It looks more like RSS, the other satellite-based anomaly. Hi Duwayne, firstly thankyou for taking the time to explain your methods, i really appreciate it. Secondly, apologies i have not had the time to digest your post, i've been away at a sporting event with the family all weekend (its a 3 day weekend here in UK) and it was an internet blackhole!! i'll get back on track and contribute soon
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Post by sigurdur on May 5, 2015 3:13:34 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on May 5, 2015 4:23:21 GMT
Excellent Sig! Now where would we find point or grid-specific ocean temperature data from which custom, historical 20th century, area-specific SSTs could be computed? Probably has already been mapped if one could find the digital data.
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Post by missouriboy on May 5, 2015 4:25:28 GMT
duwayne. I think the results of your forecast will be interesting. I now take my Hadcrud and Gistemp data with a sizeable portion of salt. As a comparison, you might consider a rerun of your method using the UAH Satellite-based temperatures (Roy Spencer). Perhaps less salt required . A strictly global ocean temperature timeseries would also be interesting. Having not found your exact methodology for incorporating AMO and PDO, I assume that their cold phases will tend to weight your least squares Hadcrud extrapolations downward. I'm always reminded of one line in a poem (I think it was called 'A Ballad to Ecological Awareness', or something to that effect). "No relationship in the world is linear for long!". Missouriboy, I use Hadcrut4 since it has the longest data record. It has led me to a methodolgy which can be applied to other anomalies. The one anomaly which didn't fit well with my methodology was UAH. Interestingly enough, there is a new updated version of UAH, version 6, which now fits. It looks more like RSS, the other satellite-based anomaly. duwayne. Is your technique very similar to this? wattsupwiththat.com/2010/09/30/amopdo-temperature-variation-one-graph-says-it-all/
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Post by acidohm on May 5, 2015 5:55:36 GMT
Excellent Sig! Now where would we find point or grid-specific ocean temperature data from which custom, historical 20th century, area-specific SSTs could be computed? Probably has already been mapped if one could find the digital data. But guess what Missouriboy, old sst data...has...been...adjusted... Old way of measuring sea temp was pull a bucket out with rope, put thermometer in. Powers that be have decided water in bucket on ship not the same temp as water in bucket in sea so...adjusted. ..
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Post by missouriboy on May 5, 2015 6:05:22 GMT
Excellent Sig! Now where would we find point or grid-specific ocean temperature data from which custom, historical 20th century, area-specific SSTs could be computed? Probably has already been mapped if one could find the digital data. But guess what Missouriboy, old sst data...has...been...adjusted... Old way of measuring sea temp was pull a bucket out with rope, put thermometer in. Powers that be have decided water in bucket on ship not the same temp as water in bucket in sea so...adjusted. .. I won't even try to act surprised! Bad for my blood pressure.
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