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Post by nautonnier on Dec 30, 2012 20:16:42 GMT
Joe Bastardi has already stated that this SSW will bring extreme cold to the Continental USA.
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Post by karlox on Dec 30, 2012 20:55:33 GMT
Joe Bastardi has already stated that this SSW will bring extreme cold to the Continental USA. Said something about Europe? I see a blocking high moving trough Iberian Peninsula and reaching UK in a few days (less rain will help this time) and about 6 of Jan a very deep-large polar vortex (474 at 500mb) centered west of northern Greenland and a polar high 534 right next to the vortex within polar circle... Source: www.aemet.es/es/eltiempo/prediccion/modelosnumericos/ceppm?opc2=hn&opc3=500
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Post by magellan on Dec 30, 2012 21:12:00 GMT
Sudden stratospheric warmings seen in MINOS deep underground muon dataThe rate of high energy cosmic ray muons as measured underground is shown to be strongly correlated with upperair temperatures during short-term atmospheric (10-day) events. The effects are seen by correlating data from the MINOS underground detector and temperatures from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts during the winter periods from 2003– 2007. This effect provides an independent technique for the measurement of meteorological conditions and presents a unique opportunity to measure both short and long-term changes in this important part of the atmosphere.
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andor
Level 2 Rank
Posts: 60
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Post by andor on Dec 31, 2012 15:06:04 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 31, 2012 18:31:23 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Dec 31, 2012 19:47:55 GMT
Well the jetstream is well south still - crossed southern Eire westbound in the jet, headwinds of 140 mph and stayed in it all the way to Virginia on a great circle. Temperatures minus 47C also seem a little cold for 32,000ft
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 1, 2013 2:55:15 GMT
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zaphod
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 210
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Post by zaphod on Jan 1, 2013 15:13:54 GMT
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Post by duwayne on Jan 5, 2013 0:29:02 GMT
Remember the Met Office decadal forecast that was posted here earlier? Well, they now have a new forecast. -which can be found here. www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/decadal-fcNotice how the white line which is supposed to represent prior forecasts has been totally changed. Only in climate science would that be permissible. Notice the forecast temperature by 2020 is only about 0.4C below the earlier forecast. In fact, it's close to the level I've been predicting here for several years. Clearly their new forecast will be much closer to reality, but there's no indication in the update of how bad their past forecasts were. I wonder if Anthony Watts is aware of this.
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Post by throttleup on Jan 5, 2013 1:04:46 GMT
Good catch, duwayne...
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Post by duwayne on Jan 5, 2013 2:41:34 GMT
throttleup, thanks. I can't resist repeating my comment from Reply # 786 earlier on this thread which was referring to the first forecast shown on my post immediately above. "The Met Office Forecast anomalies are far above actual - more than 0.3C too high for each of the last 2 years. This forecast and by extension the climate models would seem to have no scientific value." But here's the really sad thing. I also said this in Reply # 786. "I do, however, appreciate that the Met Office provide the historical forecasts as part of their forecast updates so one can judge their accuracy." Now, they have even abandoned this one positive attribute of their forecast by presenting false history in their new forecast.
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Post by throttleup on Jan 5, 2013 3:14:42 GMT
throttleup, thanks. I can't resist repeating my comment from Reply # 786 earlier on this thread which was referring to the first forecast shown on my post immediately above. "The Met Office Forecast anomalies are far above actual - more than 0.3C too high for each of the last 2 years. This forecast and by extension the climate models would seem to have no scientific value." But here's the really sad thing. I also said this in Reply # 786. "I do, however, appreciate that the Met Office provide the historical forecasts as part of their forecast updates so one can judge their accuracy." Now, they have even abandoned this one positive attribute of their forecast by presenting false history in their new forecast. Well duwayne, This means two things: 1. The Met Office reads this board; in particular... your posts!
2. The Met Office considers looking good more important than being accurate or historically accurate."He who controls the past, controls the future..." George Orwell 1984
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Post by magellan on Jan 5, 2013 4:00:04 GMT
throttleup, thanks. I can't resist repeating my comment from Reply # 786 earlier on this thread which was referring to the first forecast shown on my post immediately above. "The Met Office Forecast anomalies are far above actual - more than 0.3C too high for each of the last 2 years. This forecast and by extension the climate models would seem to have no scientific value." But here's the really sad thing. I also said this in Reply # 786. "I do, however, appreciate that the Met Office provide the historical forecasts as part of their forecast updates so one can judge their accuracy." Now, they have even abandoned this one positive attribute of their forecast by presenting false history in their new forecast. Met O have wholesale deleted pages and pages of earlier forecasts/predictions so nobody can dig back in time. There may be some saved somewhere, but unless someone took snapshots or find them on Wayback, it is 'he said she said'. How convenient.
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Post by karlox on Jan 5, 2013 10:25:33 GMT
The real Inconvenient Truth, I suggest
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Post by norpag on Jan 5, 2013 21:51:59 GMT
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