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Post by nautonnier on Sept 20, 2010 12:18:54 GMT
Personally I like observations as I believe that they tend to trump 'lines of reasoning'. Saying that observations showing the opposite of what you claim in the long term- have no impact on your long term reasoning - is a restatement of the 'its only weather' response. Presumably if the observations show the same lack of positive feedback for more than 30 years this might become more persuasive and be accepted as climate. in the mean time as it was mentioned Still the same warm spots around Greenland and to North of the Bering straights - but you can see the Atlantic is a little cooler even the tracks of the recent hurricanes. And the La Nina continues you can see why SoCal is feeling the cold.
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Post by poitsplace on Sept 21, 2010 4:06:31 GMT
Still the same warm spots around Greenland and to North of the Bering straights - but you can see the Atlantic is a little cooler even the tracks of the recent hurricanes. And the La Nina continues you can see why SoCal is feeling the cold. Indeed the La Nina does continue. I assume its just my visual cortex playing a continuity trick on me...but it looks almost like its so strong that its dragging cold water out of the southern atlantic as well. Since this is supposed to be a pretty big La Nina, I'm guessing it will probably cause temperatures to drop to those around 1999 plus or minus a few tenths of a degree. But it is the weather/climate system and it does crazy things sometimes.
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 21, 2010 11:16:02 GMT
Interestingly Hurricane Igor is expected to run right over the warm ocean up by the southern tip of Greenland and the NHC still think it will be a hurricane at that point. This is taking a lot of energy out of the oceans and may have an effect not only on the global (well NH) temperatures but also on the arctic with the wind and the energy extraction from the ocean North Atlantic Drift.
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Post by jimcripwell on Sept 21, 2010 14:36:35 GMT
The August number for HAD/CRU is out; 0.473 C. This is the lowest monthly anomaly for 2010. With the current La Nina, presumably, we can expect temperatures to go on dropping throughout the rest of 2010. The average YTD is 0.52 C, which is lower than 1998.
Smith et al, Science August 2007 forecast that, following 2009, half the years would have temperature anomalies greater than 1998, using the HAD/CRU data. The first year of this forecast now looks like this prediciton is not happening yet.
I wonder how long it will take for the scientific community to realize what I have known for years. It is impossible to validate climate models, so they are quite useless for any sort of prediciton.
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Post by steve on Sept 21, 2010 16:23:54 GMT
The August number for HAD/CRU is out; 0.473 C. This is the lowest monthly anomaly for 2010. With the current La Nina, presumably, we can expect temperatures to go on dropping throughout the rest of 2010. The average YTD is 0.52 C, which is lower than 1998. Smith et al, Science August 2007 forecast that, following 2009, half the years would have temperature anomalies greater than 1998, using the HAD/CRU data. The first year of this forecast now looks like this prediciton is not happening yet. I wonder how long it will take for the scientific community to realize what I have known for years. It is impossible to validate climate models, so they are quite useless for any sort of prediciton. You have to let the prediction play out. They predicted a couple of years of not much warming followed by more warming up to 1998 levels and beyond. So far temperatures are remaining just within their uncertainty bars. But what they are really testing is whether it is possible to improve on the previous quite good predictions of warming of about 0.1-0.2C per decade by assimilating the ocean data to give good initial conditions. Here's their latest effort - annoyingly the anomaly baseline is different from HadCRUT3 so it is hard to compare: Just to summarise some previous predictions, with a bit of reading between lines, we have: poitsplace going for 1999 levels in 2011 (0.263 +/- a few 10ths based on HadCRUT3). magellan stating that: Bastardi going for the biggest La Niña for 50-odd years. woodstove plays his cards close to his chest, but at the end of the cold 2008 (0.312C HadCRUT3), he said in a WUWT post "Ten years from now, when the cooling has begun in earnest..." - two years of warmer temperatures since then have made his work harder. I think it would take a very big La Niña indeed to bring us below 0.4C for 2011, but I don't trust the model La Niña forecasts and think the La Niña won't be as deep as some of them say, which is why I'm waiting a bit...
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Post by magellan on Sept 21, 2010 16:54:51 GMT
The August number for HAD/CRU is out; 0.473 C. This is the lowest monthly anomaly for 2010. With the current La Nina, presumably, we can expect temperatures to go on dropping throughout the rest of 2010. The average YTD is 0.52 C, which is lower than 1998. Smith et al, Science August 2007 forecast that, following 2009, half the years would have temperature anomalies greater than 1998, using the HAD/CRU data. The first year of this forecast now looks like this prediciton is not happening yet. I wonder how long it will take for the scientific community to realize what I have known for years. It is impossible to validate climate models, so they are quite useless for any sort of prediciton. You have to let the prediction play out. They predicted a couple of years of not much warming followed by more warming up to 1998 levels and beyond. So far temperatures are remaining just within their uncertainty bars. But what they are really testing is whether it is possible to improve on the previous quite good predictions of warming of about 0.1-0.2C per decade by assimilating the ocean data to give good initial conditions. Here's their latest effort - annoyingly the anomaly baseline is different from HadCRUT3 so it is hard to compare: Just to summarise some previous predictions, with a bit of reading between lines, we have: poitsplace going for 1999 levels in 2011 (0.263 +/- a few 10ths based on HadCRUT3). magellan going for very cold due to a massive La Niña. Bastardi going for the biggest La Niña for 50-odd years. woodstove plays his cards close to his chest, but at the end of the cold 2008 (0.312C HadCRUT3), he said in a WUWT post "Ten years from now, when the cooling has begun in earnest..." - two years of warmer temperatures since then have made his work harder. I think it would take a very big La Niña indeed to bring us below 0.4C for 2011, but I don't trust the model La Niña forecasts and think the La Niña won't be as deep as some of them say, which is why I'm waiting a bit... I like how you used Met O's latest "smoothing" technique Don't put words into my mouth. What I've said is 2011 will wipe out whatever "underlying trend" increase that will be attributed by warmologists to 2010 El Nino. I don't make predictions, but do follow patterns closely and calculate the probability based on the available data. Check my "prediction" for 2009 ; not bad for an denialist amateur. Nowhere in this forum can you locate anything other than my saying temperatures will not rise as advertised by climate modelers. For anyone to have said 2009 would be cooler than 2008 obviously don't follow patterns. A temperature crash is coming in the next 6 months that much is true. HadCRUT 2010 will most certainly not exceed 1998 unless they do another massive adjustment as was done in ~June. The average slope from 1979 onward is -.006/month during the the last five months of the year. During El Nino years (excluding volcano periods), it is -.040. As this is the fastest transition from El Nino to La Nina in recent history (50+ years), which is actually what Bastardi said, the slope increases to .070+. Only Hansen and his phony Arctic heat that nobody else can find will push 2010 into the "warmest year on record" headlines. January/February will be the telltale for 2011 once the ocean data is accumulated. There is a difference between now and 12 years ago, that being OHC is not increasing; the oceans are transitioning to a cool mode, and yes, that will include the Arctic as the AMO and NAO does the same. Hey, go back to the El Nino thread that Astromet started early in the year and see that I raked him over the coals about his 2010 El Nino predictions. Find anything I said that turned out wrong (edit: other than underestimated El Nino last year)
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Post by steve on Sept 21, 2010 17:11:33 GMT
Magellan, your rhetorical style made me remember your statement stronger than it was:
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Post by magellan on Sept 21, 2010 17:58:05 GMT
Magellan, your rhetorical style made me remember your statement stronger than it was: Yep, that's about right, and also that we'll see nary a post from graywolf about the "death spiral" that Mark Serreze keeps flipflopping on like a large carp. Why do you want others to make predictions without sticking your own neck out? Also, the model predictions for this La Nina had to be updated all summer to keep up with the observations. It was not forecast early on.
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Post by duwayne on Sept 21, 2010 18:25:09 GMT
Duwayne, it's a bit of fun to lighten the climate doom gloom. The 0.6C is a reversion to a 0.1-0.2C per decade current trend since the steady spell we're having is merely natural variability. Anyway, less discussion and more predictions/guesses please. Steve, the quote above is from early in this thread. It's your thread and apparently you frown on discussion, but I can't see how a jump in temperature of 0.2C in 1 year (your prediction of 0.4C in 2009 and 0.6C in 2010 without an El Nino) is consistent with a rise of 0.1-0.2C per decade. And speaking of 0.1-0.2C per decade, are you saying there is a real possibility of no significant AGW? There was a long term warming trend of 0.1C per decade before CO2 began rising significantly.
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Post by scpg02 on Sept 21, 2010 23:34:42 GMT
Duwayne, it's a bit of fun to lighten the climate doom gloom. The 0.6C is a reversion to a 0.1-0.2C per decade current trend since the steady spell we're having is merely natural variability. Anyway, less discussion and more predictions/guesses please. Steve, the quote above is from early in this thread. It's your thread and apparently you frown on discussion, but I can't see how a jump in temperature of 0.2C in 1 year (your prediction of 0.4C in 2009 and 0.6C in 2010 without an El Nino) is consistent with a rise of 0.1-0.2C per decade. And speaking of 0.1-0.2C per decade, are you saying there is a real possibility of no significant AGW? There was a long term warming trend of 0.1C per decade before CO2 began rising significantly. I start threads to spur discussion. As long as discussion is going on I'm happy. I could careless what the topic is.
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Post by poitsplace on Sept 22, 2010 1:00:03 GMT
I start threads to spur discussion. As long as discussion is going on I'm happy. I could careless what the topic is. "couldn't care less"...sorry, couldn't help myself www.youtube.com/watch?v=om7O0MFkmpw
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Post by scpg02 on Sept 22, 2010 6:48:48 GMT
I start threads to spur discussion. As long as discussion is going on I'm happy. I could careless what the topic is. "couldn't care less"...sorry, couldn't help myself www.youtube.com/watch?v=om7O0MFkmpwLOL well if that is my worst mistake for the day, I'll live.
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Post by steve on Sept 22, 2010 9:29:01 GMT
Duwayne, it's a bit of fun to lighten the climate doom gloom. The 0.6C is a reversion to a 0.1-0.2C per decade current trend since the steady spell we're having is merely natural variability. Anyway, less discussion and more predictions/guesses please. Steve, the quote above is from early in this thread. It's your thread and apparently you frown on discussion, but I can't see how a jump in temperature of 0.2C in 1 year (your prediction of 0.4C in 2009 and 0.6C in 2010 without an El Nino) is consistent with a rise of 0.1-0.2C per decade. And speaking of 0.1-0.2C per decade, are you saying there is a real possibility of no significant AGW? There was a long term warming trend of 0.1C per decade before CO2 began rising significantly. Hello duwayne, long time no read. I don't frown on discussion. Things were drifting off the topic of the thread, and maybe after 3 years of chatting I am getting a bit bored of the "cooling soon" meme from some people who won't give time-lines. Yes I have acknowledged that my 0.6C was (only) a little over-egged. My finger in the air thinking was that I was "assuming that the La Nina will weaken by the end of the year and we'll head towards average or El Nino conditions over the following 2 years." which didn't pan out. A bit more El Niño and a bit less La Niña and I might have got there. 0.1-0.2C warming is at the lower end of current projected warming which is projected to increase. Magellan, I agree with you that ENSO forecasting looks as good as financial forecasting at the moment. That's why I'm waiting a bit before my next guess. Remember my last guess of 30 months ago still has 4 months to run - my neck is still out (and being chopped, but only by sticks of celery).
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Post by steve on Sept 22, 2010 9:38:50 GMT
PS duwayne, I note that your original prediction of early 2008 assumed that 2007's 0.3 anomaly was some sort of baseline around which temperatures would vary. Do you want to change your baseline yet?
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Post by hunterson on Sept 22, 2010 9:42:43 GMT
Getting trapped into predicting an anomaly of 0.Xo per year as way to predict a climate- climate by definition being multi-decade in nature- is a silly game. Playing it with data that has error bars as large as those climate uses is even sillier.
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