Post by sigurdur on Feb 1, 2014 20:04:03 GMT
Duwayne:
My thinking was your forecast was potentially very close to correct, a slight warming bias perhaps, but well within my thought when I first read it.
Reason's I now think you are 0.6C too high, (yes, using the Hadcrut3).
1. Antarctica. Sea Ice continues to remain on the high side. And instead of loosing mass, the land ice also appears to be growing now that the satellite measurements have been fixed. A new low temp in Antarctica, and it hasn't warmed as Seig's paper tried to show.
2. The tie in of UV/EUV and jet streams. Dr. Svalgaard doesn't agree with this, but there are now too many papers published showing that there is most certainly some type of effect on jet stream placement to discount the cause/effect.
a. The result of the meandering jet streams is it allows warm air to get to the Arctic. The Arctic is NOT a good place to maintain warmth. It is like an open east window in a blizzard with a 50+mph north west wind. That huge sucking sound is heat leaving the earth, and leaving rapidly.
b. Hadley's have changed position a bit. Didn't pay much attention to this until I read the paper concerning monsoons and the tie in with the sun. The Hadley's drive the monsoons. Well, if the Sun is now driving the Hadley's...and they have expanded a bit north...then that is also pushing warm air north.
c. The rather unexpected lack of warming of the oceans. We know the surface air temp has been flat, water is always a laggard or a leader...depending on how you want to match the temp record. We know from Satellite measurements that the air on earth actually is clearer since 1993 than during the time of the 2nd WW and 45 years after. I had expected continued heating of surface air temps with a more pronounced heating of the oceans....OHC...as a result of more SW radiation actually getting to the surface of the water. ARGO data shows that idea didn't pan out. It is now long enough to realize that even with more SW radiation hitting the earth, that OHC isn't going up and surface temps flat.
3. AH of the atmosphere is not responding to the higher surface temps. Logically, it should have gone up substantially. It hasn't. That tells me that either our actual ability to record surface temps with thermometers is screwy.....(RSS shows a different picture, but that metric is NOT surface temps), or our ability to measure AH is screwy. With all the adjustments to surface temperature records, that leads me to think that the AH measurements for the past 15 years are somewhat reliable, but the surface temp records leave a lot to be desired. IF the AH are reliable, (AH has actually shown to have gone down a little bit)...then the actual heat content of the atmosphere has gone down. This kinda goes hand in hand with a clearer atmosphere. A little less pollution, a little less H2O vapor will result in a clearer atmosphere. Even with the clearer atmosphere, OHC isn't responding.
The above tells me that more heat is leaving the earth than is accumulating. Antarctica is so cold that this is not a good source of a "cooling" area. But if it is actually cooling(the few surface temps there show this)...even Antarctica has become an open window. Response....more sea ice area? Trying to conserve the warmth? (Ice covered water doesn't give up its heat easily).
A crap shoot at best on my part. But looking at the accelerating loss of heat from the planet....I just don't see how it will be replaced. The PDO should switch in another decade or so. (the cycle is NOT exact), The Arctic will prob continue to have slightly higher highs in summer sea ice area which will conserve warmth of the ocean. But as Magellan has pointed out, and Bob Tisdale shows, the Arctic Ocean etc is not gaining a lot of heat.
My thinking was your forecast was potentially very close to correct, a slight warming bias perhaps, but well within my thought when I first read it.
Reason's I now think you are 0.6C too high, (yes, using the Hadcrut3).
1. Antarctica. Sea Ice continues to remain on the high side. And instead of loosing mass, the land ice also appears to be growing now that the satellite measurements have been fixed. A new low temp in Antarctica, and it hasn't warmed as Seig's paper tried to show.
2. The tie in of UV/EUV and jet streams. Dr. Svalgaard doesn't agree with this, but there are now too many papers published showing that there is most certainly some type of effect on jet stream placement to discount the cause/effect.
a. The result of the meandering jet streams is it allows warm air to get to the Arctic. The Arctic is NOT a good place to maintain warmth. It is like an open east window in a blizzard with a 50+mph north west wind. That huge sucking sound is heat leaving the earth, and leaving rapidly.
b. Hadley's have changed position a bit. Didn't pay much attention to this until I read the paper concerning monsoons and the tie in with the sun. The Hadley's drive the monsoons. Well, if the Sun is now driving the Hadley's...and they have expanded a bit north...then that is also pushing warm air north.
c. The rather unexpected lack of warming of the oceans. We know the surface air temp has been flat, water is always a laggard or a leader...depending on how you want to match the temp record. We know from Satellite measurements that the air on earth actually is clearer since 1993 than during the time of the 2nd WW and 45 years after. I had expected continued heating of surface air temps with a more pronounced heating of the oceans....OHC...as a result of more SW radiation actually getting to the surface of the water. ARGO data shows that idea didn't pan out. It is now long enough to realize that even with more SW radiation hitting the earth, that OHC isn't going up and surface temps flat.
3. AH of the atmosphere is not responding to the higher surface temps. Logically, it should have gone up substantially. It hasn't. That tells me that either our actual ability to record surface temps with thermometers is screwy.....(RSS shows a different picture, but that metric is NOT surface temps), or our ability to measure AH is screwy. With all the adjustments to surface temperature records, that leads me to think that the AH measurements for the past 15 years are somewhat reliable, but the surface temp records leave a lot to be desired. IF the AH are reliable, (AH has actually shown to have gone down a little bit)...then the actual heat content of the atmosphere has gone down. This kinda goes hand in hand with a clearer atmosphere. A little less pollution, a little less H2O vapor will result in a clearer atmosphere. Even with the clearer atmosphere, OHC isn't responding.
The above tells me that more heat is leaving the earth than is accumulating. Antarctica is so cold that this is not a good source of a "cooling" area. But if it is actually cooling(the few surface temps there show this)...even Antarctica has become an open window. Response....more sea ice area? Trying to conserve the warmth? (Ice covered water doesn't give up its heat easily).
A crap shoot at best on my part. But looking at the accelerating loss of heat from the planet....I just don't see how it will be replaced. The PDO should switch in another decade or so. (the cycle is NOT exact), The Arctic will prob continue to have slightly higher highs in summer sea ice area which will conserve warmth of the ocean. But as Magellan has pointed out, and Bob Tisdale shows, the Arctic Ocean etc is not gaining a lot of heat.