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Post by Purinoli on Jan 2, 2010 18:25:05 GMT
My predictions for 2010 : max : 12.3.2010 : 14.6 mio km2 min : 9.9.2010 : 5.70 mio km2 Attachments:
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Post by hunter on Jan 2, 2010 18:49:35 GMT
I think the ice pack will be within one std. deviation of historical norms.
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Post by ron on Jan 4, 2010 1:57:26 GMT
The ice cap will be as cold, dark and thick as a Fribble in January during a blackout only more so.
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Post by kiwistonewall on Jan 5, 2010 22:57:52 GMT
Jaxa is back on after the break. My latest charts. I'll add the 2010 plot to the anomaly shortly, but the extent chart is showing the latest data. As I've noted before, when the winter ice extent is growing slowly, then a major snow storm is in action - There is only so much cold to go around! Attachments:
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Post by graywolf on Jan 5, 2010 23:14:06 GMT
Poor start to 2010 according to IJIS, how low can she go?, when you consider how little old perennial remains and how much easier 'fresh,salty ,ice is to melt the current Nino year has me a tad concerned about the durability of the pack come spring/early summer. Seeing as the remnants of the 'old perennial' are stacked behind Svalbard they are endanger of being fed, via the arctic gyre, into the currents taking it out into the N. Atlantic via East Greenland as soon as the 'thin ice' is shattered by the spring storms. I've also wondered about the impacts of the spring tide on a fragile pack. In the past I've noted fragmentation events around the equinox full moon (as Terra and Aqua show well) any info on what lifting thin ice actually does to it's integrity?
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 6, 2010 0:25:35 GMT
Graywolf: Read "Arctic Passion". I was amazed at how the ice would shatter even tho very thick.
These are 1st hand accounts of the Arctic and it is a great read.
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mason
New Member
Posts: 13
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Post by mason on Jan 6, 2010 6:34:28 GMT
Graywolf...
Banging the same old drum on here i see..... God your posts are drearily the same, almost word for word.
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Post by graywolf on Jan 6, 2010 7:11:14 GMT
Glad you liked it mason ;D The way I see summer panning out you'll be seeing a lot more of the same Thanks Sigurdur! shall do! I'd spent a few years watching the Antarctic and noticed many 'fragmentation events' post storm/full moon but most of the ice there is first year. It was 2005 when I noticed similar oop north.
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jtom
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 248
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Post by jtom on Jan 6, 2010 13:00:18 GMT
I read one article not too long ago about a scientist trolling around the Arctic in his huge ice breaker to examine the ice. He described the ice as 'rotten' when he saw enormous cracking taking place right after his arrival to a field.
I wonder if he ever considered that HE may have been responsible by destroying the integrity of the ice, allowing natural forces to wreak havoc on the ice. My initial thought was that the ship, as big as it was, was puny compared to the vastness of the region, but then I considered what often happens to a car's windshield after getting chipped by a relatively small pebble. Once the car hits a bump, a crack spreads over the whole of the glass.
If researchers have compromised the integrity of the Arctic, then normal winds and tides could lead to its destruction. Note that this obviously could not happen in the Antarctic. Perhaps that would explain why the Arctic seems to be falling apart while the Antarctic is healthy, or even growing.
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 6, 2010 13:13:52 GMT
Graywolf: Read "Arctic Passion". I was amazed at how the ice would shatter even tho very thick. These are 1st hand accounts of the Arctic and it is a great read. OOPs......that should be "Polar Passion"
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Post by hunter on Jan 6, 2010 16:57:32 GMT
Can the AGW alarmists and hypesters please find another drum to bang? "December (month end averages) NSIDC (sea ice extent)
30 yrs ago 1980 Southern Hemisphere = 11.1 million sq km 1980 Northern Hemisphere = 13.7 million sq km Total = 24.8 million sq km
Recorded Arctic min yr. 2007 Southern Hemisphere = 12.7 million sq km 2007 Northern Hemisphere = 12.4 million sq km Total = 25.1 million sq km
Last yr. 2008 Southern Hemisphere = 12.2 million sq km 2008 Northern Hemisphere = 12.5 million sq km Total = 24.7 million sq km
This yr. 2009 Southern Hemisphere = 11.4 million sq km 2009 Northern Hemisphere = 12.5 million sq km Total = 23.9 million sq km
1979-2000 Southern Hemisphere Dec. mean = 11.1 million sq km 1979-2000 Northern Hemisphere Dec. mean = 13.4 million sq km Total mean = 24.5 million sq km
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Post by kiwistonewall on Jan 7, 2010 6:04:15 GMT
My charts: Top Left: Jaxa Extent Magnified & spread over Dec/Jan for continuity. Top Right: Velocity (Ice growth per day, smoothed over 15 days) Older series start from mid January as I haven't wrapped all the series. Lower: Anomaly chart, with 2010 plot started Attachments:
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Post by jpowell on Jan 7, 2010 11:48:30 GMT
One of the reasons given the past couple of years for the low ice extent in the arctic is that the winds were sweeping the ice out into the Atlantic Ocean. I always understood this to be related to the Arctic Oscillation being positive. Now the AO is strongly negative. Is the low ice extent that we are seeing now because of the winds compressing the ice pack? As soon as the AO goes more positive are we going to see the ice extent dramatically increase?
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Post by hunter on Jan 7, 2010 13:45:38 GMT
jpowell, Look at the numbers I posted. There is no need for a dramatic recovery. There is a dramatic need for a reduction in hype by AGW promoters.
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Post by jpowell on Jan 7, 2010 16:23:13 GMT
Hunter,
I don’t believe in AGW. I follow the ice extent as a hobby. As of “today’s” date (Jaxa) the ice extent numbers are close to being the lowest since 2003. That’s not to imply that they won’t change radically next week. I agree with you that what we are seeing is nothing out of the ordinary 1 STD DEV. My question is whether or not the very extreme negative AO (-2 STD DEV) is influencing the ice extent this year?
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