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Post by matt on Oct 10, 2010 16:12:30 GMT
The smug banality of the AGW true believer is interesting. So are you saying that Arctic ice was, until CO2, always in a stable system, without significant fluctuation? I never saw any indication of that. You are building a strawman.
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Post by trbixler on Oct 11, 2010 13:51:01 GMT
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Post by thermostat on Oct 12, 2010 2:55:48 GMT
trbixler, We are observing the beginning of the 2010 freeze season. Last I looked, sea ice extent was well below recent historical levels for this date. I personally recall back in 1988 when some grey whales became trapped off of Point Barrow at this time of year. www.qsl.net/kg0yh/whales.htmEventually the Russians came and saved the whales. The ice has since melted, as we can all see.
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Post by magellan on Oct 12, 2010 3:05:55 GMT
trbixler, We are observing the beginning of the 2010 freeze season. Last I looked, sea ice extent was well below recent historical levels for this date. I personally recall back in 1988 when some grey whales became trapped off of Point Barrow at this time of year. www.qsl.net/kg0yh/whales.htmEventually the Russians came and saved the whales. The ice has since melted, as we can all see. What is your prediction for Arctic ice minimum in 2011? It should drop below 2007 shouldn't it? I recall just a few short years ago Australia was supposedly going to dry up and disappear in a ball of dust. In fact, I recall a lot of things global warming prognosticators have been saying for many years that turned out completely wrong, and it will continue to be so just as it always has in history when people think they can predict the future.
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Post by thermostat on Oct 12, 2010 3:17:38 GMT
trbixler, We are observing the beginning of the 2010 freeze season. Last I looked, sea ice extent was well below recent historical levels for this date. I personally recall back in 1988 when some grey whales became trapped off of Point Barrow at this time of year. www.qsl.net/kg0yh/whales.htmEventually the Russians came and saved the whales. The ice has since melted, as we can all see. What is your prediction for Arctic ice minimum in 2011? It should drop below 2007 shouldn't it? I recall just a few short years ago Australia was supposedly going to dry up and disappear in a ball of dust. In fact, I recall a lot of things global warming prognosticators have been saying for many years that turned out completely wrong, and it will continue to be so just as it always has in history when people think they can predict the future. Magellan, I don't predict anything unusual for this year's arctic sea ice maximum. I'm kind of a fan of Dirk Notz on this question. www.mpimet.mpg.de/en/mitarbeiter/dirk-notz/
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Post by magellan on Oct 12, 2010 3:50:08 GMT
What is your prediction for Arctic ice minimum in 2011? It should drop below 2007 shouldn't it? I recall just a few short years ago Australia was supposedly going to dry up and disappear in a ball of dust. In fact, I recall a lot of things global warming prognosticators have been saying for many years that turned out completely wrong, and it will continue to be so just as it always has in history when people think they can predict the future. Magellan, I don't predict anything unusual for this year's arctic sea ice maximum. I'm kind of a fan of Dirk Notz on this question. www.mpimet.mpg.de/en/mitarbeiter/dirk-notz/ So when ice extent increases next year significantly above 2010, what will be the cause? It's like Katrina when the major consensus government scientists told us that was the year natural variation was overtaken by AGW and hurricane activity would increase. What happened since 2005? The Arctic is the last refuge for AGW worshipers. It used to be Greenland was the 'canary in the coalmine', but that failed too. Earlier this year it was found that GRACE was grossly in error; oops, so much for "accelerating ice sheet loss". Sea level is also not accelerating. What is accelerating? Is one year, 2007, the smoking gun? I've yet to see one single shred of evidence to support the AGW version of Arctic ice melt cause and effect. As the AMO makes it's slow move back to the negative phase in the coming years, so shall the AO move to a more positive mode. As you have made it clear Appeal to Authority is an acceptable argument, perhaps you haven't been following the subject very closely. Mark Serreze is head cheese at NSIDC. Have you tracked his quotes? For example: tinyurl.com/ycs2ltl Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013′
Professor Wieslaw Maslowski told an American Geophysical Union meeting that previous projections had underestimated the processes now driving ice loss….”In the end, it will just melt away quite suddenly.
“I think Wieslaw is probably a little aggressive in his projections, simply because the luck of the draw means natural variability can kick in to give you a few years in which the ice loss is a little less than you’ve had in previous years. But Wieslaw is a smart guy and it would not surprise me if his projections came out.”
- Mark Serreze
It must be true because a "top scientist" said it. Personally, I'm not impressed. Are you? Serreze has made several unsubstantiated statements based on "the science" we keep hearing about, then when wrong his intended audience gets amnesia. Many of us don't and have long memories. All these predictions are based on models. Learned folks understand if one, just one, part of the model fails, the entire model fails. Have I ever developed a climate model? Nope, and don't need to. A model is a model is a model. Early experience with finite element analysis however taught me models are only as good as what is programmed into them. Climate models are simply an output of what the modelers expect based on what they program into them.
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Post by thermostat on Oct 12, 2010 3:53:08 GMT
Regarding general arctic sea ice conditions, a team of Norwegian sailors has been circumavigating the arctic; www.ousland.no/blog/They are now approaching Oslo in their sail boat.
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Post by trbixler on Oct 12, 2010 4:13:56 GMT
trbixler, We are observing the beginning of the 2010 freeze season. Last I looked, sea ice extent was well below recent historical levels for this date. I personally recall back in 1988 when some grey whales became trapped off of Point Barrow at this time of year. www.qsl.net/kg0yh/whales.htmEventually the Russians came and saved the whales. The ice has since melted, as we can all see. Did you notice the date that the slope changed. Might be missed amidst all the rhetoric.
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Post by poitsplace on Oct 12, 2010 4:30:05 GMT
Anyone else notice that a boat's SAFE passage is based on the ABSENCE of ice. Its always amusing to me that while the ice IS NOT doing what they expect, they're basically cheering for a return to an INHOSPITABLE arctic. Thermostat even mentioned the whales having problems with the ice...WHALES! These AGW types seem to have no concept of...well, anything. They want the world cold for the sake of cold. They just make up all kinds of BS predictions about how terrible it will be with warming....but seriously, almost all the REAL WORLD EVIDENCE points to cold being worse.
In the mean time...while I'll admit that this year isn't giving us any decisive information about the overall trend, it sure favors recovery more than continued loss.
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Post by lenardob on Oct 12, 2010 14:11:21 GMT
Anyone else notice that a boat's SAFE passage is based on the ABSENCE of ice. Its always amusing to me that while the ice IS NOT doing what they expect, they're basically cheering for a return to an INHOSPITABLE arctic. Thermostat even mentioned the whales having problems with the ice...WHALES! These AGW types seem to have no concept of...well, anything. They want the world cold for the sake of cold. They just make up all kinds of BS predictions about how terrible it will be with warming....but seriously, almost all the REAL WORLD EVIDENCE points to cold being worse. In the mean time...while I'll admit that this year isn't giving us any decisive information about the overall trend, it sure favors recovery more than continued loss. THE AGW worriers want "no more warming" the AGW dissenters want "no more money outta my pocket" - and for the science to be SCIENCE- and accurate science at that. and the ice...will be ice- it'll melt when the temps go up, it'll freeze when the temps go down and currently the ocean's currents and occilations are pointing - in my opinion- to the ice growing over this winter -highest in 30 years? no idea, getting to potentially above the running average at the peak of the freeze?- in my opinion yes i think it will. personally, I WANT WARMER. warmer = more water in the atmosphere warmer = more arable land warmer= better living conditions. however i Believe we ARE going to get Cooler- not a huge amount but enough to -hopefully- run roughshod over the pro CO2 camp.
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Post by trbixler on Oct 12, 2010 16:39:17 GMT
Sorry comparator does not include 11 October 2010 but they do have an image for 11 October 2010. I cannot see the death spiral.
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Post by hunterson on Oct 13, 2010 12:53:22 GMT
I hope our AGW alarmist friends will soon realize that 30 years is far too short a base line to judge anything with climate.
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Post by flyingmonkey on Oct 15, 2010 7:55:16 GMT
The Norgegian trimarin sailboat is making good progress at circumnavigating the Arctic Sea www.ousland.no/blog/They are in the home stretch now; circumnavigating the arctic ocean in one summer in a small sail boat. Comments on historical sea ice extent, especially given recent implications of a 60 yr natural cylcle would be helpful. Comments on how such a small, vulnerable boat could do this are especially useful. Given that these crazy Norwegians, how come noone ever did this before? They did. Most recently in 1944... the NW passage portion, anyway. The 2010 Norwegians are further south than the 1944 Norwegian , after reading the St Roch log, and skimming these 2010 sailors blog. ( St Roch captain , Henry Larsen was born in Norway in 1899 but took Canadian citizenship in 1924) RCMP Sgt. Henry Larsen's transit ; 7,295 miles Halifax to Vancouver via the northern NW passage route in 86 days, when the St Roch was rigged as a schooner-arrived in Vancouver Oct 16 1944. I was aboard the ship this June in the Vancouver maritime museum, and read the log-quite interesting. First vessel to complete the Northwest Passage in one season (1944), first to use the more northerly, deeper route and to complete the Passage in both directions. In 1944 on the Russian /Norwegian side,( the Russian Northern Route ) we hadn't sunk the German Battleships ( Tirpitz, Scheer and Hipper ) in the Norwegian Fjords yet, and the Nazi submarine wolf packs were more worrisome than ice. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convoy_PQ_17 The Northern route refroze pretty hard in a bitterly cold 1946 , according to a senior Russian naval officer ( I mislaid the link )-although Stalin didn't abandon the route-first transited in a single season in 1934; the Russian ships sailing the route ceased almost entirely in '93 or so, mainly for lack of funds following the break up of the Soviet Union. It looks like these these Viking fellows did it 800 years ago, if you scroll down to map 2C www.spirasolaris.ca/1aintro.htmlwww.amazon.com/Viking-America-Norse-Crossings-Legacy/dp/0385025858www.spirasolaris.ca/sbb4g1bv.html " ..As the twelfth century ended, the climate reversed. Ice crept southward, all over Europe snow fell lower on the mountain slopes, upland trees died. Pack-ice cluttered the coasts of Greenland, then tightened an Arctic noose to strangle movement. Moreover, in describing recent research carried out at an Inuit site on the Burnside River south of the Kent Peninsula, Bryan Gordon of the Museum of Civilization (Nadlok and the Origin of the Copper Inuit - Climate, Dating and Seasonality) provides data that suggest the Passage may have become difficult if not impractical by 1450 A.D: ...Nadlok's carbon-dated floors and levels show a 1450-1750 A.D. occupation in the Little Ice Age, a time of deteriorating climate when ocean temperature fell 1-3 deg. C and the Arctic summer front retreated 4-5 deg. of latitude. Sea ice stayed all year in sheltered Bathurst Inlet and east Coronation Gulf, inevitably disrupting sea-mammals and their hunters, but with little effect on caribou...."
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Post by thermostat on Oct 16, 2010 0:49:41 GMT
The Norgegian trimarin sailboat is making good progress at circumnavigating the Arctic Sea www.ousland.no/blog/They are in the home stretch now; circumnavigating the arctic ocean in one summer in a small sail boat. Comments on historical sea ice extent, especially given recent implications of a 60 yr natural cylcle would be helpful. Comments on how such a small, vulnerable boat could do this are especially useful. Given that these crazy Norwegians, how come noone ever did this before? They did. Most recently in 1944... the NW passage portion, anyway. The 2010 Norwegians are further south than the 1944 Norwegian , after reading the St Roch log, and skimming these 2010 sailors blog. ( St Roch captain , Henry Larsen was born in Norway in 1899 but took Canadian citizenship in 1924) RCMP Sgt. Henry Larsen's transit ; 7,295 miles Halifax to Vancouver via the northern NW passage route in 86 days, when the St Roch was rigged as a schooner-arrived in Vancouver Oct 16 1944. I was aboard the ship this June in the Vancouver maritime museum, and read the log-quite interesting. First vessel to complete the Northwest Passage in one season (1944), first to use the more northerly, deeper route and to complete the Passage in both directions. In 1944 on the Russian /Norwegian side,( the Russian Northern Route ) we hadn't sunk the German Battleships ( Tirpitz, Scheer and Hipper ) in the Norwegian Fjords yet, and the Nazi submarine wolf packs were more worrisome than ice. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convoy_PQ_17 The Northern route refroze pretty hard in a bitterly cold 1946 , according to a senior Russian naval officer ( I mislaid the link )-although Stalin didn't abandon the route-first transited in a single season in 1934; the Russian ships sailing the route ceased almost entirely in '93 or so, mainly for lack of funds following the break up of the Soviet Union. It looks like these these Viking fellows did it 800 years ago, if you scroll down to map 2C www.spirasolaris.ca/1aintro.htmlwww.amazon.com/Viking-America-Norse-Crossings-Legacy/dp/0385025858www.spirasolaris.ca/sbb4g1bv.html " ..As the twelfth century ended, the climate reversed. Ice crept southward, all over Europe snow fell lower on the mountain slopes, upland trees died. Pack-ice cluttered the coasts of Greenland, then tightened an Arctic noose to strangle movement. Moreover, in describing recent research carried out at an Inuit site on the Burnside River south of the Kent Peninsula, Bryan Gordon of the Museum of Civilization (Nadlok and the Origin of the Copper Inuit - Climate, Dating and Seasonality) provides data that suggest the Passage may have become difficult if not impractical by 1450 A.D: ...Nadlok's carbon-dated floors and levels show a 1450-1750 A.D. occupation in the Little Ice Age, a time of deteriorating climate when ocean temperature fell 1-3 deg. C and the Arctic summer front retreated 4-5 deg. of latitude. Sea ice stayed all year in sheltered Bathurst Inlet and east Coronation Gulf, inevitably disrupting sea-mammals and their hunters, but with little effect on caribou...." flyingmonkey You will be cheered to hear that the crew of the Northern Passage completed their circumnavgation of the arctic sea yesterday, when they crossed their wake and arrived back in Norway. www.ousland.no/2010/10/we%e2%80%99ve-crossed-our-wake-%e2%80%93-and-arrived-in-norway/This appears to be the first time in recorded human history that anyone has circumnavigated the arctic in a single season. (Implications for this discussion forum are obvious) There are many historical records describing the frozen conditions in the arctic and difficulties in navigation there. Are you claiming that conditions this year were nothing unusual?
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Post by thermostat on Oct 16, 2010 1:17:23 GMT
The Norgegian trimarin sailboat is making good progress at circumnavigating the Arctic Sea www.ousland.no/blog/They are in the home stretch now; circumnavigating the arctic ocean in one summer in a small sail boat. Comments on historical sea ice extent, especially given recent implications of a 60 yr natural cylcle would be helpful. Comments on how such a small, vulnerable boat could do this are especially useful. Given that these crazy Norwegians, how come noone ever did this before? They did. Most recently in 1944... the NW passage portion, anyway. The 2010 Norwegians are further south than the 1944 Norwegian , after reading the St Roch log, and skimming these 2010 sailors blog. ( St Roch captain , Henry Larsen was born in Norway in 1899 but took Canadian citizenship in 1924) RCMP Sgt. Henry Larsen's transit ; 7,295 miles Halifax to Vancouver via the northern NW passage route in 86 days, when the St Roch was rigged as a schooner-arrived in Vancouver Oct 16 1944. I was aboard the ship this June in the Vancouver maritime museum, and read the log-quite interesting. First vessel to complete the Northwest Passage in one season (1944), first to use the more northerly, deeper route and to complete the Passage in both directions. In 1944 on the Russian /Norwegian side,( the Russian Northern Route ) we hadn't sunk the German Battleships ( Tirpitz, Scheer and Hipper ) in the Norwegian Fjords yet, and the Nazi submarine wolf packs were more worrisome than ice. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convoy_PQ_17 The Northern route refroze pretty hard in a bitterly cold 1946 , according to a senior Russian naval officer ( I mislaid the link )-although Stalin didn't abandon the route-first transited in a single season in 1934; the Russian ships sailing the route ceased almost entirely in '93 or so, mainly for lack of funds following the break up of the Soviet Union. It looks like these these Viking fellows did it 800 years ago, if you scroll down to map 2C www.spirasolaris.ca/1aintro.htmlwww.amazon.com/Viking-America-Norse-Crossings-Legacy/dp/0385025858www.spirasolaris.ca/sbb4g1bv.html " ..As the twelfth century ended, the climate reversed. Ice crept southward, all over Europe snow fell lower on the mountain slopes, upland trees died. Pack-ice cluttered the coasts of Greenland, then tightened an Arctic noose to strangle movement. Moreover, in describing recent research carried out at an Inuit site on the Burnside River south of the Kent Peninsula, Bryan Gordon of the Museum of Civilization (Nadlok and the Origin of the Copper Inuit - Climate, Dating and Seasonality) provides data that suggest the Passage may have become difficult if not impractical by 1450 A.D: ...Nadlok's carbon-dated floors and levels show a 1450-1750 A.D. occupation in the Little Ice Age, a time of deteriorating climate when ocean temperature fell 1-3 deg. C and the Arctic summer front retreated 4-5 deg. of latitude. Sea ice stayed all year in sheltered Bathurst Inlet and east Coronation Gulf, inevitably disrupting sea-mammals and their hunters, but with little effect on caribou...." Flyingmonkey, Modern technology has also been an issue here. The Northern Passage is a fragile vessel; not the sort of craft that would fair well if it was banging into chunks of ice. As you expound on recent historical navigations of the arctic I would be curious about your insights regarding how such a physically fragile vessel could have possibly sailed such waters in the past.
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