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Post by aj1983 on Dec 27, 2009 13:38:30 GMT
I haven't seen any research lately showing that this is likely to happen. However, if it does, it will get cold, but probably not as cold as in North Dakota in winter (-60 F ), because we have such a large body of water so nearby.
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 27, 2009 14:20:00 GMT
In pondering AGW, I think it should be a requirement that anyone who is in favor of cold rather than warm should have to live in ND for at least 2 years.
This would bring sense to them, as they would actually recognize climate, and that there is nothing static about it.
Being in ND, they would observe how important warmth is, verses cold. Food, which is a foundation of life, is produced here in copious quantities. That production does much better on the warm side than the cold side.
I do think living here, and being a farmer, heightens my awareness. While cooling would make me rich, it would also cause very widespread disruption to the world in that hunger would prevail all over. I just don't want that to happen.
When I look at reliable grow lines in the US, I just don't see any shift north. Those grow lines are the real thermometers of the world. I live far enough north that I can drive for a few hours further north to see the ag grow line stop. That line in Manitoba just hasn't changed.
I realize that temp is a worldwide phenomina, but somehow, I don't think my area should be immune to warming if it is actually occuring.
I will have you note that I indicated "reliable" grow lines. There are always going to be flucuations on a yearly basis. The long term trend has not moved that I can discern.
Just my humble 2 cents worth.
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Post by billlee49 on Dec 27, 2009 14:56:44 GMT
I don't post much, preferring just to read others' comments, however, I have to agree with sigurdur. I lived in ND for almost six years, and while not a farmer, and while some winters were certainly colder than others, the temperatures, averaged out over those years, were pretty consistent with no noticeable trend up or down. One year, we had snow in June and a hard freeze in the middle of August. A friend of mine who grew corn had practically no yield that year, whereas in years with warmer springs, his crop was much more mature. I'm sure that many northern-tier farmers, like my friend, would ardently hope for global warming, as it would certainly put money in their bank accounts and add some assurance to their growing season. As it stands, though, a relatively static trend in temperatures means that they will continue to contend with late spring snows, late summer/early fall freezes, and snowstorms with 10 foot drifts in December.
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Post by aj1983 on Dec 27, 2009 15:40:53 GMT
I can understand you both very well. My opinion is (even though I know it is not reasonable because local weather is not global climate) is also probably still somewhat based on the weather here. It is interesting that you don't see those changes in the US. Partly, I believe that might be because you are much further south than Europe, so changes are likely to be smaller. Also, climate variations are much larger in the US, so any change is maybe more difficult to observe (this does not have to be that way though). It could also be something completely else. Some regions will see warming, others might experience warming, and this pattern might change any moment.
Here, (Western Europe) we do see changes in growth season. Those are not minor. Here, the spring growing season starts 6 weeks earlier. Although there is variability, the leaf fall has also delayed by a month on average. The temperature has risen almost a degree in 20 years, and almost 2 C in 50 years. We have such a relatively mild climate with little temperature extremes that a 2 degree warming makes a noticable difference. We are currently experiencing the climate was average for central France, about 800 km south of here. Subtropical and warmth loving species are migrating into our area, and species which have been doing better in a colder climate are migrating north.
If you talk to older people, or even my dad, read old newspapers etc. you see what a large climatic shift has been taking place here. The 2 weeks or relatively cold weather was considered as very special, also this cold period has been considered very special. This is because we haven't experienced such "cold" since 1996. Even though 1996 can be considered a cold winter year, it was hardly comparable to many other cold winters we used to have. The cold periods we have now are very short and relatively warm if you compare it to 1996. Also we are experiencing many warmth related records (temperature, and to a lesser extend precipitation), and hardly any or almost no cold related records (temperature, and to a (much) lesser extend snowfall).
Just local observations though...
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Post by scpg02 on Dec 27, 2009 18:41:14 GMT
You guys make me glad I live in California!
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Post by boxman on Dec 27, 2009 19:39:37 GMT
I can understand you both very well. My opinion is (even though I know it is not reasonable because local weather is not global climate) is also probably still somewhat based on the weather here. It is interesting that you don't see those changes in the US. Partly, I believe that might be because you are much further south than Europe, so changes are likely to be smaller. Also, climate variations are much larger in the US, so any change is maybe more difficult to observe (this does not have to be that way though). It could also be something completely else. Some regions will see warming, others might experience warming, and this pattern might change any moment. Here, (Western Europe) we do see changes in growth season. Those are not minor. Here, the spring growing season starts 6 weeks earlier. Although there is variability, the leaf fall has also delayed by a month on average. The temperature has risen almost a degree in 20 years, and almost 2 C in 50 years. We have such a relatively mild climate with little temperature extremes that a 2 degree warming makes a noticable difference. We are currently experiencing the climate was average for central France, about 800 km south of here. Subtropical and warmth loving species are migrating into our area, and species which have been doing better in a colder climate are migrating north. If you talk to older people, or even my dad, read old newspapers etc. you see what a large climatic shift has been taking place here. The 2 weeks or relatively cold weather was considered as very special, also this cold period has been considered very special. This is because we haven't experienced such "cold" since 1996. Even though 1996 can be considered a cold winter year, it was hardly comparable to many other cold winters we used to have. The cold periods we have now are very short and relatively warm if you compare it to 1996. Also we are experiencing many warmth related records (temperature, and to a lesser extend precipitation), and hardly any or almost no cold related records (temperature, and to a (much) lesser extend snowfall). Just local observations though... I think most AGW skeptics agree that earth has warmed. I myself live in Scandinavia where warming has been apparent as well. I still beliee it is mostly natural as it was even more warm here back in MWP.
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Post by spaceman on Dec 28, 2009 0:20:49 GMT
I agree with sigurdur, growing lines are the only things that matter. BTW, the growing line of wheat in Canada had advanced 100 miles further north form the end of WWII till 1978. I am puzzled though, that was supposed to be a cooling trend during the 1970's. When you get that far north, the growing season becomes 'if'. While Sigurdur weather is harsh, being outside all day everyday in much warmer weather 40's F, takes a toll.
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Post by Pooh on Dec 28, 2009 18:41:19 GMT
sigurdur writes: "In pondering AGW, I think it should be a requirement that anyone who is in favor of cold rather than warm should have to live in ND for at least 2 years."
South Dakota may do as well:
Giants in the Earth: A Saga of the Prairie, Ole Edvart Rolvaag. 1927, Harper & Brothers
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Post by boxman on Dec 28, 2009 20:46:26 GMT
sigurdur: it is actually a lot more windy and rainy now, so I prefer the "cold". However, you would consider it relatively warm on our coldest days (warm gulf stream has great influence, considering that I am at 53 degrees north). Last two weeks temperatures were usually hovering around 0 C (32F) during the day and a few degrees colder during the night. We had one or two "cold" days, when temperature reached 0 F/-18C locally at night (we only reached 12 F (-11) here), and it was -8 C (18F) during the day. Usually when it freezes here it does not rain, it is sunny and the frost is not too bad, so that's why I prefer "cold" here, because it never gets REALLY cold (the record is -27 C I believe). The record is only -27C? Heck....that is a warm spell at times! It has been -60F near here. I have observed -43F........that issss a bit nippy. The lowest recorded here in trondheim, norway was -26.1c in 1899. Some town "ålesund" on the west coast has a record low of only -11c. I am more surprised it has been that cold in the neterlands.
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