Snowfall in Great Britain will soon be a memory!

[glc]

A 2C colling trend would be a dramatic cooling by 2030 more than enough to convince people the ice age is coming.

Even 0.5C would be adequate proof that CO2 is not that important.

I'd go along with that. Natural variation can't account for much more than ~0.5 deg over a 30 year period on a global scale. I suppose we could get a rush of La Ninas and volcanic eruptions in the 2020s, but the CO2 forcing should be giving a 0.2 deg per decade warming trend, so if the world is 0.5 deg cooler in 2030 then climate sensitivity to CO2 forcing would have to be reviewed - certainly at the IPCC level (~0.75 deg per w/m2) and possibly at the 'basic' level (~0.25 deg per w/m2).

[Purinoli]

Jan 1, 2010 4:46:15 GMT aj1983 said:

I don't care what the winters look like in local areas, even if we'd get an Elfstedentocht here in the Netherlands this year. The chance of one becomes increasingly lower (although rather slowly), but does not rule out anything. Global projections are global yearly averages. If we'd see a prolonged trend of cooling or strong deviation of the projected AGW trend, things would start to get interesting. Maybe in 50 years we'll think what the heck were we talking about back then, but currently, I wouldn't bet on it.

Which relations do not work anymore??? Why??? The only deviation I see currently is a slower or halted warming trend the last few years, which would be strange ONLY if you assume that the temperature MUST rise exactly 0.2 degrees every decade (actually if you look at the actual global decadal averages it still fits this trend quite well!). I don't think this is what AGW projects, does anybody? The current temporary "halt" is however interesting, because we can analyse natural variability and the magnitude of other forcings besides CO2.

Personally, I would reconsider AGW if we'd get another globally cold period (as projected by many skeptics, a global cooling of about 2 C by 2030). Then CO2 forcing is probably weaker than thought, or natural variability much stonger or both. Or if there would be some really convincing research showing a major flaw in the AGW CO2 absorption physics, or climate sensitivity.

The problem is that it is all very uncertain because we simply don't understand in details anything, nor CO2 influence nor magnitude of natural variability.

But here in EU we have a very real and high CO2 taxes which came upon us by algoroidic stupid EU polititians. If there will be GW or GC, we will not be sure what is the real cause for many years, but money from CO2 taxes will be spent for stupid things rather than used by ourselves.

[aj1983]

Ok, true, a 0.5 degree cooling (for at least a substantial time) would be needed to review AGW and natural variability, but many skeptics are forecasting around 2 C cooling by 2030, so we might want to review that as well. There was a link posted somewhere here of somebody showed that a deviation of the trend would likely be visible around 2015, because by then the AGW trend would exceed the recent natural variability.

[icefisher]

Jan 1, 2010 4:46:15 GMT aj1983 said:

Personally, I would reconsider AGW if we'd get another globally cold period (as projected by many skeptics, a global cooling of about 2 C by 2030).

Good Gravy! 2C is about 13 times the amount it got warmer in the last 20 years. In fact, 2C is more than all the warming since the instrument record began.

Jan 1, 2010 4:46:15 GMT aj1983 said:

Then CO2 forcing is probably weaker than thought, or natural variability much stonger or both. Or if there would be some really convincing research showing a major flaw in the AGW CO2 absorption physics, or climate sensitivity.

Fact is I figured I would wait until somebody showed me the entire set of calculations than have some idiot like Gavin Schmidt argue instead that the calculations are right because they have 35 independent models that roughly show the same result.

I would wager all 35 models have some funding that can be traced back to Al Gore using his VP powers to gild the lilly.

[nautonnier]

Al Gore doesn't fund anyone - he ensured funds were provided from taxpayers to Hansen when he was VP. The funding in the background for all this appears to be George Soros who funds Michael Mann's RealClimate.

[Ratty]

"But here in EU we have a very real and high CO2 taxes which came upon us by algoroidic stupid EU polititians. If there will be GW or GC, we will not be sure what is the real cause for many years, but money from CO2 taxes will be spent for stupid things rather than used by ourselves. "

Purinoli, how much effect have the taxes had on the EU climate so far?

[scpg02]

Jan 1, 2010 23:44:52 GMT nautonnier said:

Al Gore doesn't fund anyone - he ensured funds were provided from taxpayers to Hansen when he was VP. The funding in the background for all this appears to be George Soros who funds Michael Mann's RealClimate.

Don't forget the links to Enron.

A good portion of the grants come from the Pew Foundation.

[ab6pn]

We wish you some global warming, we wish you some global warming, we wish you some global warming and a happy New Year! Meanwhile I'm going to the beach near San Diego.

Remember the famous quote from Dr. Viner."Children just aren't going to know what snow is." All of these AGW activist need to have their past apocalyptic predictions come back to haunt them.

2009-2010 winter will be a cold one.

www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/6921281/Britain-facing-one-of-the-coldest-winters-in-100-years-experts-predict.html

[sigurdur]

It would seem that people throughout the world have adapted to "warmer" temps.
Now, when the temps dip down to what was "common" during the 1950-60 time period, it is creating headlines.

Does this tell us anything about man's ability to adapt and what to expect?

Even tho some say it is a rapid rise in temps, it would appear that the rise is overall welcome compared to the recent past.

Here in the US, Oklahoma is still struggling with ice/snow as they have, I believe, 11 plows etc for the whole state. Further north we have the equipment, but don't like to use it....

There is still 600-700 million bushels of corn to be harvested in the US. The return to 1900 mid century weather has caught lots of folks.

IN summary, I still desire warmer temps as mankind flourishes moreso with warmth than with cold. I know there are a few here that love cold temps, I am not one of them. But of course, what is cold to them is a balmy day to me....LOL.

[Purinoli]

Jan 2, 2010 5:27:39 GMT Ratty said:

"But here in EU we have a very real and high CO2 taxes which came upon us by algoroidic stupid EU polititians. If there will be GW or GC, we will not be sure what is the real cause for many years, but money from CO2 taxes will be spent for stupid things rather than used by ourselves. "

Purinoli, how much effect have the taxes had on the EU climate so far?

I realy hope so you didn't missunderstood me. Maybe my poor English contributed a little. I think so CO2 taxes had a big affect on nice feelings of our polititians who are loughing because once you implement taxes on air ( CO2 is definetely a part of air we are breathing) than anything is possible.

I have a lot of ideas : tax on physical/sport activities ( double double d...exhaust of CO2), tax on talking ( needs intake of O2 and product is CO2 among others), tax on sex acivities ( deep breathing=>CO2 polution), tax on learning/studying ( brains are one of the the biggest consumer of energy in our body=>CO2 polution...) ....etc

[trbixler]

Purinoli
How about a tax on dogs, one dog has the carbon footprint of a SUV. How about a tax on cats maybe 1/2 a SUV. Our political masters do not need more suggestions as so far chairman Brown and Chairman skyrocket energy prices have done considerable damage that will cost lives with the governments inability to cope with such simple things as plowing the roads.

[hairball]

Here in Ireland it's all gone pear shaped. They've run out of salt for the roads - 'cos they planned for global warming - not to worry though, they have 7,000 tons arriving on, erm, Tuesday. Until then the busiest motorway and several major roads are highly dangerous and many people are marooned in their houses. Dublin airport was closed for hours and one of the 4 runways couldn't be opened at all because of a veritable avalanche of a whopping 1 centimeter of snow.

I don't really care whether AGW is true or not anymore. The daft propaganda is already doing damage. We really should have a tax on alarmism. Preferably paid in flesh and collected via lobotomy.

[scpg02]

Jan 2, 2010 16:52:54 GMT hairball said:

We really should have a tax on alarmism. Preferably paid in flesh and collected via lobotomy.

Now there is an idea!

[ab6pn]

Jan 2, 2010 5:27:39 GMT Ratty said:

"But here in EU we have a very real and high CO2 taxes which came upon us by algoroidic stupid EU polititians. If there will be GW or GC, we will not be sure what is the real cause for many years, but money from CO2 taxes will be spent for stupid things rather than used by ourselves. "

Purinoli, how much effect have the taxes had on the EU climate so far?

Exactly right! Its not about climate its about politicians mining our wallets and purses to fund their out of control spending. The EPA in the states have declared C02 a toxic pollutant. Once you have the power to regulate C02 you have the power to control and regulate every aspect of our lives. First they create a nonexistant crisis and then tell us of the dire consequences of AGW if nothing is done.

If you don't believe this then just look at the delegates who attended Copenhagen. Left wing radicals, socialists, marxists, and excommunist who gave "enviromentalists" like Hugo Chavez a three minute standing ovation when he said that capitalism must be destroyed worldwide. One corrupt country after another like Zimbabwe asking for hundreds of billions of dollars to fight climate change because its all the fault of developing countries.
If you believe that one penny of that money would have be used for climate change then I have a bridge in Brooklyn I can sell to you.

Don't get me wrong. I have always supported laws that work in giving us clean air, clean water and a clean environment. But now the environmental movement has been taken over by the far left and their goal is total control of our lives.

[pacman]

This interview of John Hirst, head honcho of the British Met Office by the Beeb's Andrew Neal is worth a watch - and a laugh.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8BCnX8LIIY