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Post by steve on Dec 29, 2009 13:17:56 GMT
This is a ridiculous thread. Viner was talking about 20 years time. Even so, already this bit is true:
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Post by aj1983 on Dec 29, 2009 13:47:05 GMT
Well, that's certainly has been a good prediction.
We've actually seen a few extreme snowfall events here in the Netherlands, even in record warm years.
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Post by nautonnier on Dec 29, 2009 17:19:36 GMT
This is a ridiculous thread. Viner was talking about 20 years time. Even so, already this bit is true: Steve the fact that snow, even half a flake, will cause chaos in UK is not news - it has always been that way. As you will no doubt remember from the chaos in the winter of 1963. Nevertheless, many ski resorts in Europe were told around 2000 that they should change to something else as there would not be sufficient snow for them to continue. This has not been borne out. But then that was in the time when AGW was still called Global Warming and not the hedged Climate Change However, as you are the expert - perhaps you could forecast a time when there will no longer be snow in the UK in winter.
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Post by glc on Dec 29, 2009 20:38:06 GMT
Steve the fact that snow, even half a flake, will cause chaos in UK is not news - it has always been that way. As you will no doubt remember from the chaos in the winter of 1963.
Was there chaos in 1963?
I had to catch 2 buses to get to school in the 1960s and I didn't miss one day during the 1962/63 winter. I don't remember schools or factories closing and we got our milk and post every day. That's not to say there weren't problems but everything didn't grind to a halt like last year.
The only thing that was seriously affected was football. The large number of postponements (no undersoil heating in those days) meant there was huge backlog of fixtures.
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Post by byz on Dec 29, 2009 21:04:17 GMT
Steve the fact that snow, even half a flake, will cause chaos in UK is not news - it has always been that way. As you will no doubt remember from the chaos in the winter of 1963.Was there chaos in 1963? I had to catch 2 buses to get to school in the 1960s and I didn't miss one day during the 1962/63 winter. I don't remember schools or factories closing and we got our milk and post every day. That's not to say there weren't problems but everything didn't grind to a halt like last year. The only thing that was seriously affected was football. The large number of postponements (no undersoil heating in those days) meant there was huge backlog of fixtures. But glc you keep telling us that when we get loads of snow i.e. February 2009, Dec 2009 that you have had hardly any so in 1963 you probably only had one snowflake ;D In the 60's and 70's people were better prepared my father used to put winter tyres on in October and in 1963 my brother was taken to school by sledge in Tooting Bec in London (less than 10 miles from the centre).
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Post by nautonnier on Dec 29, 2009 21:35:42 GMT
Steve the fact that snow, even half a flake, will cause chaos in UK is not news - it has always been that way. As you will no doubt remember from the chaos in the winter of 1963.Was there chaos in 1963? I had to catch 2 buses to get to school in the 1960s and I didn't miss one day during the 1962/63 winter. I don't remember schools or factories closing and we got our milk and post every day. That's not to say there weren't problems but everything didn't grind to a halt like last year. The only thing that was seriously affected was football. The large number of postponements (no undersoil heating in those days) meant there was huge backlog of fixtures. But glc you keep telling us that when we get loads of snow i.e. February 2009, Dec 2009 that you have had hardly any so in 1963 you probably only had one snowflake ;D In the 60's and 70's people were better prepared my father used to put winter tyres on in October and in 1963 my brother was taken to school by sledge in Tooting Bec in London (less than 10 miles from the centre). Looks like we were somewhat close to each other - I can remember watching a bus (a big red double decker for those outside UK) sliding sideways down Convent Hill in Norwood (which is only about 2 miles from Tooting Bec) and queues of stationary traffic at the bottom of Knights Hill as buses failed to move and blocked the roads. Ending up with me walking the 4 miles into Kennington from upper Norwood . Depends where you were I suppose. But then glc appears to be in a favored location
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Post by raveninghorde on Dec 29, 2009 22:53:59 GMT
Steve the fact that snow, even half a flake, will cause chaos in UK is not news - it has always been that way. As you will no doubt remember from the chaos in the winter of 1963.Was there chaos in 1963? Yes www.bbc.co.uk/london/weather/big_freeze.shtml/quote Road and rail transport was severely disrupted, the airports closed and the Thames froze over. The Navy managed to keep Chatham dockyard open by using an icebreaker but the other London docks remained closed with ice floes and mini icebergs on the river. The knock on effect was around a 30% increase in the price of fresh foods and millions of milk bottles disappeared. To add to the misery power cuts became the norm, refuse remained uncollected and people had to get water from road tankers as the mains supply froze as well. /end quote www.mtullett.plus.com/1962-63/23-24JanG-1963.htm/quote 24th January 1963 "There was more chaos on the railways as diesel fuel, coal, points and water troughs froze. Passengers travelling in one train from St.Pancras to Manchester took only ten minutes short of twelve hours to cover the 189 miles. They were lucky. Many trains didn't run at all. Fifty families were evacuated from a block of flats in Streatham because they were too hot; there was a fault in the central-heating system. On the other side of London bonfires were lit in the streets of Paddington to prevent water freezing in the stand pipes. Cabinet met to discuss emergency measures" /end quote
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ab6pn
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Post by ab6pn on Dec 30, 2009 0:02:28 GMT
Let the readers read the entire article from march of 2000. Is the article simply alarmist propaganda or an uncanny accurate prediction. Personally I think its a lot of hot air.
Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past
By Charles Onians
Monday, 20 March 2000 .
Britain's winter ends tomorrow with further indications of a striking environmental change: snow is starting to disappear from our lives.
Sledges, snowmen, snowballs and the excitement of waking to find that the stuff has settled outside are all a rapidly diminishing part of Britain's culture, as warmer winters - which scientists are attributing to global climate change - produce not only fewer white Christmases, but fewer white Januaries and Februaries.
The first two months of 2000 were virtually free of significant snowfall in much of lowland Britain, and December brought only moderate snowfall in the South-east. It is the continuation of a trend that has been increasingly visible in the past 15 years: in the south of England, for instance, from 1970 to 1995 snow and sleet fell for an average of 3.7 days, while from 1988 to 1995 the average was 0.7 days. London's last substantial snowfall was in February 1991.
Global warming, the heating of the atmosphere by increased amounts of industrial gases, is now accepted as a reality by the international community. Average temperatures in Britain were nearly 0.6°C higher in the Nineties than in 1960-90, and it is estimated that they will increase by 0.2C every decade over the coming century. Eight of the 10 hottest years on record occurred in the Nineties.
However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event".
"Children just aren't going to know what snow is," he said.
The effects of snow-free winter in Britain are already becoming apparent. This year, for the first time ever, Hamleys, Britain's biggest toyshop, had no sledges on display in its Regent Street store. "It was a bit of a first," a spokesperson said.
Fen skating, once a popular sport on the fields of East Anglia, now takes place on indoor artificial rinks. Malcolm Robinson, of the Fenland Indoor Speed Skating Club in Peterborough, says they have not skated outside since 1997. "As a boy, I can remember being on ice most winters. Now it's few and far between," he said.
Michael Jeacock, a Cambridgeshire local historian, added that a generation was growing up "without experiencing one of the greatest joys and privileges of living in this part of the world - open-air skating".
Warmer winters have significant environmental and economic implications, and a wide range of research indicates that pests and plant diseases, usually killed back by sharp frosts, are likely to flourish. But very little research has been done on the cultural implications of climate change - into the possibility, for example, that our notion of Christmas might have to shift.
Professor Jarich Oosten, an anthropologist at the University of Leiden in the Netherlands, says that even if we no longer see snow, it will remain culturally important.
"We don't really have wolves in Europe any more, but they are still an important part of our culture and everyone knows what they look like," he said.
David Parker, at the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in Berkshire, says ultimately, British children could have only virtual experience of snow. Via the internet, they might wonder at polar scenes - or eventually "feel" virtual cold.
Heavy snow will return occasionally, says Dr Viner, but when it does we will be unprepared. "We're really going to get caught out. Snow will probably cause chaos in 20 years time," he said.
The chances are certainly now stacked against the sortof heavy snowfall in cities that inspired Impressionist painters, such as Sisley, and the 19th century poet laureate Robert Bridges, who wrote in "London Snow" of it, "stealthily and perpetually settling and loosely lying".
Not any more, it seems.
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Post by glc on Dec 30, 2009 0:25:29 GMT
Yes
www.bbc.co.uk/london/weather/big_freeze.shtmlSo nothing like the chaos nowadays, then. No schools were closed. People got to work. The post got delivered. All this in the coldest winter in over 300 years. I do notice, though, that most of the 'chaos' refers to London and the SE, so I suppose things haven't changed that much.
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Post by glc on Dec 30, 2009 1:03:26 GMT
Re: 1963
I've just checked our local weather station data. The mean temperatures for the 1962/63 winter are as follows:
Dec +1.6 Jan -2.1 Feb -1.0
Which suggests we had it harder than the poor souls in the the SE. Meanwhile we carried on making cars, tractors and aircraft. The local football team was involved in the most postponed English cup-tie (15 times) - an indication that the freezing conditions were longer lasting in the midlands.
Could someone just remind me of the temperature statistics for the "bitterly cold" winter of 2008/09.
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Post by magellan on Dec 30, 2009 7:33:49 GMT
Re: 1963 I've just checked our local weather station data. The mean temperatures for the 1962/63 winter are as follows: Dec +1.6 Jan -2.1 Feb -1.0 Which suggests we had it harder than the poor souls in the the SE. Meanwhile we carried on making cars, tractors and aircraft. The local football team was involved in the most postponed English cup-tie (15 times) - an indication that the freezing conditions were longer lasting in the midlands. Could someone just remind me of the temperature statistics for the "bitterly cold" winter of 2008/09. Did you figure in the UHI factor?
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Post by steve on Dec 30, 2009 11:51:24 GMT
Given that our climate is strongly dependent on heat being pumped from the tropics, and at a whim we can be assailed by cold continental or polar air meeting this warm moist air, predicting the end of snow in the UK seems unwise (and Viner did not do so).
Chaos is was and will be caused by snow because councils set their budgets according to "normal" conditions. When I were a lad you would have guys clearing all the pavements (sidewalks) with mini-snow ploughs - it snowed most years and the snow could lay for weeks, so the effort was worth it.
Yesterday in Yorkshire there was thick frozen snow on all the pavements in my home town some 3 or 4 days after the snow fall (and it would have been the case whether or not it had been Christmas). In Devon, many accidents were caused by driver incompetence in, for them, unusual conditions. And in February, the London Bus service was cancelled due to a mere 4 inches of snow.
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Post by poitsplace on Dec 30, 2009 12:26:42 GMT
I think the met office is going to find that their models aren't modeling the most important thing. With the PDO in a cold mode, the behavior of the weather changes. If the destabilization of the polar vortex continues for the entire cold period...not only will we continue to get more snow, it's likely the glacial balances will shift substantially (possibly even tipping them all the way back into an advancing mode).
Oh well, I guess we'll find out in the coming years.
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ab6pn
New Member
Posts: 33
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Post by ab6pn on Dec 30, 2009 19:50:23 GMT
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Post by steve on Dec 31, 2009 11:57:20 GMT
He's a bit excitable isn't he! As it happens, I and many others followed the "drumbeat of warmth" after the extremely cold January and very cold February of 2008, and ignored the doomsayers of a cold world. As we expected, the warmth returned then. I do note that the Bastardi comments seem to relate very clearly to cold where people live, and/or north of 30N. So given that is a small fraction of the earth, it is still a short term, relatively local forecast that says little about the global temperature no matter how much he tries to big it up.
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