Post by AstroMet on Jan 5, 2010 13:21:19 GMT
ENSO 2010/2011: Astromet Teleconnections
Long-Range Climate Outlook & 2010 Forecast
Region: North America
The Sun Completes Global Warming Phase With Powerful ENSO
By Theodore White; astrometeorologist.S
Forecast Issued: December 2008
*Updated: December 23, 2009
[*Included: Spring 2010 Flood Warnings For Mississippi River & Tributaries*]
Comments on El Nino -
My forecast for the coming El Nino to arrive in mid-2009 will soon be verified by the appearance of rising sea temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Astronomic indications confirm that the new celestial cycles, mainly those of the Sun, and the planets in April/May 2009, clearly reveal that a new ENSO was on the horizon.
NOAA and other global climatologists continue to see rising temperatures in the eastern Pacific, now about 1-degree Celsius above normal, with receding trade winds. This is a standard sign of a coming ENSO.
Updates On El Nino - www.elnino.noaa.gov/ani.html
Some forecasters had been wary in 2008-09 as competing computer models that forecast climate conditions differed; as some indicated an El Nino is on the way, and others continue to show neutral ENSO conditions.
Many forecasts still are not certain of the strength and length of the coming ENSO. However, many forecasters will have to revise their outlooks sooner rather than later.
From my long-range astronomical calculations for North America, I've forecasted 2010-11 to be a very strong El Nino year. This is caused mainly by the activity of the Sun, which will undergo an historic solar maximum that will bring to an end the 36-year global warming phase that began in the year 1980 while opening a new global cooling phase that will get underway by the year 2017.
In the meantime, I am also forecasting that the years of late 2009 to 2016 will feature some of the world's wildest climate and weather events of the early 21st century that, by the mid-2010s, will have seen the close of the current 36-year phase of global warming that Earth has experienced since 1980.
By 2010, in my estimation, we will have entered the 30th year of Solar-forced global warming. These last six-to-seven-and-a-half years, from 2010 to about 2017, will likely feature some of the warmest global temperatures recorded in the entire 36th year global warming cycle.
This cycle, like that of global cooling on its way in the decades ahead - is directly caused by the Sun.
The next 6-7 years, from this outlook, shows the next several winters will be brief with the seasons showing three (3) early and short seasons, and one extended long season.
For example, I see 2010 seasonally this way for North America - these are general guidelines from my astronomical calculations on our nation's long-range climate next year -
*Winter 2010 - early - active, done by March 2010.
*Spring 2010 - early - active, widespread floods, warmer than normal temperatures. My biggest concern is the potential flooding of the Mississippi in early Spring 2010. For more, see my forecast below.
*Summer 2010 - early, hotter than normal, but a short summer. It seems to zip right by, coming early in May 2010 like it did - so that after the first 10 days of August, one should be able to detect a "late September-like chill" in the air in the August nights. By mid-September, for certain, brisk autumn like days, with cooler than average temperatures felt across a third of the country. It appears that summer isn't going to stick around for long, and there are wetter months ahead, more than usual for the strange fall season of 2010 just ahead.
**Fall 2010 - the season starts off with what "appears" to be another early Indian summer, but then Fall turns into a very wet, extended, and warmer-than-normal season w/ tropical air, torrential rains. This is going to be a longer-than-normal fall season that extends right into January 2011.
By this time in fall 2010, the Mid-Atlantic should be well within the throes of El Nino, with above average rainfall, and warmer than average temperatures.
The earlier brisk air of August/September 2010 will by the end of September give way to warmer than average temperatures, and increased precipitation. Rains continue through October, November, December 2010 and into early January 2011. By the time the fall season is over, it will be early February 2011, and winter will have arrived two months later than normal.
From my calculations, fall like conditions, but much wetter and warmer than normal will last for nearly six months (beginning in August 2010 and ending by early February 2011.) Precipitation of rains in autumn 2010 are above average, as is the temperature, for the eastern third of the nation.
Make best friends with all your rain gear, and umbrellas next fall. It's going to be a longer stretch of warm and wet than most people will have expected. Enjoy that previous summer because it's going to be a rather quick summer, and you will need all the sunshine you can soak up before the long wet and stormy fall of 2010.
*Winter 2011 - arrives late, not starting until early Feb. 2011, colder than normal, La Nina phase. Mid-winter conditions will exist through March, and winter conditions will persist into April 2011, making for a colder, and later than normal Spring of 2011.
*Spring 2011 - looks like what I call a "Frosted Spring." Ever see a time in early spring where some flowers and trees have begun to bloom and then cold temperatures and a winter storm hits? Then, the next day you get up, the storm has passed over, the skies are clearing and everything that has slightly bloomed is frozen and glittering in the sunlight in the chill of the cold air?
That's what the start of late Spring of 2011 looks like to me.
The lightly budding trees are frozen with ice and it appears as if the early planting season will be delayed in March/April 2011 because of late winter storms, and colder than normal temperatures.
The ground soil is still quite frozen due to the late arrival of the winter season that previous February. Budding trees and plants along with crop losses are possible due to the interference of the late winter season storms of 2011.
It appears as if the La Nina phase has kicked in with these late winter storms and colder than normal temperatures. March 2011 is a particularly brutal month of arctic temperatures, and winter storms across North America.
I've analyzed astronomical transits relating to the climate, and combined them with the expected condition of the Sun to form my forecast and climate outlook.
My findings below is generally for the United States and the northern hemisphere. I do include brief mention of various international locations.
SOLAR CYCLE #24
It is important not to take this particular El Nino lightly. The Sun is beginning to pick up activity, a sure sign of coming climate changes on Earth.
In 2008, out of the year's 365 days, the Sun was blank (no sunspots) 73% of the year, about 266 days. The Sun has been in the longest known solar minimum recorded since 1901 and 1913.
All that ended in 2009, and going into 2010, the Sun is seeing a continued pickup in sunspot activity which signals the start of Solar Cycle #24.
Recent measurements by NASA show a direct correlation to the Sun's minimum to cooler global temperatures. The opposite of what has been forecasted by man-made global warming advocates.
I have continued to state that the causes of all climate change is astronomical - global warming and global cooling - and is solar-forced.
NASA recently stated December 17, 2009 that -
"New measurements from a NASA satellite show a dramatic cooling in the upper atmosphere that correlates with the declining phase of the current solar cycle. For the first time, researchers can show a timely link between the Sun and the climate of Earth’s thermosphere, the region above 100 km, an essential step in making accurate predictions of climate change in the high atmosphere."
A new sunspot imaged on September 23, 2008, is in the expected location to signal the start of Solar Cycle #24, see -
www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/soho/sunspot_20080923.html
A new sunspot group issuing frequent solar flares was detected December 14, 2009 on the Sun's surface. Stretching the length of nine Earths, this new sunspot group continues to signal that the Sun's three-year minima cycle is coming to an end -
See - soho.esac.esa.int/pickoftheweek/
I also expect this new Solar maximum cycle to grow stronger into the early-to-mid-2010s, which will mean a very active several years of climate changes, featuring intense weather patterns on the Earth.
This will be an historic solar maximum lasting to about the year 2015-16 - three years longer than expected by most scientists.
In my estimation, since the Cycle of The Sun began in May 1980 causing the eruption of Mount St. Helen's and opening up the current 36-year phase of global warming.
I expect the Sun's new maximum to close on its cycle with a very active series of sunspot activity to rival many previous maximums and cause the Earth's climate to react powerfully between 2010 through to the year 2016.
Because of this, we are facing a strong six-to-seven-year series of climate events that will close the door on global warming and open up a new global cooling cycle, but the damaging effects of global warming caused by the Sun's activity since 1980 will last into the 2020s.
However, according to my longer-range calculations, the earth should begin to see signs and increasing frequencies of colder La Nina phases with weaker El Nino events into the late 2010s. These cooler anomalies will indicate stronger signals that a new era of global cooling will begin in about the year 2016-17.
This globally cooler era should peak in the mid-2030s and last to about the year 2052 - a 36-year climate cycle of global cooling.
EL NINO 2010/2011
For over two years, I continued to forecast that a new El Nino was on the way from my astronomic calculations. This ENSO will dominate the world's weather events through all of 2010, into 2011 and 2012, via very strong teleconnections when the world can expect increased flooding from powerful storms with resulting mudslides from torrential rains to the coasts of Ecuador and Peru and to the coasts of southern California.
Droughts can spread through the countries of Australia, China, India, Indonesia, India, Philippines, and Africa. One region of the world - South Asia - will see an powerful series of climate-related disasters as a result from the Sun's activity and effects on the world's coverall climate. It is calculated that world's population at risk from ENSO-related disasters is somewhere between 187 to 250 million people globally.
Forecasters, climatologists, meteorologists, and those who are weather and climate spotters and watchers will have their hands very full dealing with ENSO-related weather patterns from now through to June 2012, according to my forecast.
This summer and autumn is a good time to get your weather equipment set and tuned up. It is also essential for those living in regions where El Nino is known to have particular weather effects to prepare your emergency plans and store supplies for the latter half of 2009 and all through the year 2010, 2011, and 2012. Further preventive plans will need to be made for additional damaging weather events related to the impacts of ENSO in the years 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016.
The shifts in storm tracks from El Nino (2010-2012) and precipitation patterns will greatly affect seasonal forecasts during these years to the extent where forecasters will have to use ENSO models to adjust their seasonal forecasts for annual rain, drought, and snowfall amounts in North America, and elsewhere.
Because ENSO conditions are not regulated to calendar years, and often extend beyond one year, through to three or four years in length at times, the best conventional models not based on astronomic calculations on the causes, but those related to building readings of the effects would be Sea-Surface Temperature (SST) readings; the Southern Oscillation Model (SOI) and the Multi-Variate ENSO Index (MEI) for large position values (El Nino) and to read for coming large negative values (La Nina.)
At this time in July 2009, scientists are already seeing the precursor signs of the onset phase of ENSO with seasonal warming off the coasts of Peru persisting.
By late August 2009, sea-surface temperatures will continue to rise, and we should see changes in the SOI models further confirming ENSO with negative values, along with recording of pressure increases at Darwin station in Australia matched by pressure decreases at the Tahiti climate station.
La Nina Anomaly in 2011?
Although I have forecasted the return of El Nino in 2009, into 2010, and 2011, I am also forecasting a La Nina event to follow in the Northern Hemispheric Winter of 2011 to take place in the months of February, March, and April of that year.
My analysis of astronomical motions correlating to a La Nina shows that the 2010 El Nino will be followed by the cooler La Nina phase.
For more on La Nina, see - www.elnino.noaa.gov/lanina.html
There is a very strong potential of heavier than normal snowfalls along the eastern seaboard of the United States at that time especially affecting the Southeastern, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeastern states with drought spreading from southern Texas along to the Gulf states and into parts of the central Midwest.
The spring of 2011 looks surprising sluggish again, and reminds me slightly of the spring of 2009 - but with ENSO climate impacts. The month of February 2011 is particularly odd, as the month of January 2011 seems to be warmer and windier than usual for many regions in the United States - with one exception - there appears to be more snow for the Eastern and Southeastern U.S. with the heaviest snows falling in the month of March 2011.
Drought is also one my biggest concerns from this particular ENSO. Because of certain astronomic indications, some of the world's regions other than the southern to Midwestern United States will see a the spread of droughts and dust storms that may last into the year 2015 at varying intensities along the way - leading to starvation from the year-after-year lack of rains, particularly in parts of eastern and central Africa, all of India, northern & southern China, Indonesia, northern and central Australia, the Philippines, and Japan.
I expect drought conditions to lead to increasing threat of food shortages, and large brush fires in countries like Sumatra, with another air-pollution alert in the neighboring countries of Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia and Singapore.
Another concern are water-born diseases like cholera and malaria resulting from heavy rainfall and increased precipitation along with the warmer temperatures associated with El Nino years. This will be particularly the case in central America where intense hurricanes in the southern and central Pacific will rage in 2010. Typhoons will also be active in the eastern region of northwestern Pacific.
I've been forecasting a warmer and wetter winter for most of North America in Winter 2010, plus, just before this coming winter arrives, increasing rains for the Far West, stretching into the Inter-mountain west, and the Pacific Northwest, heavy rains in the Southwestern Desert states and Southeastern U.S.
The U.S. East Coast will experience a warmer winter, but with enough precipitation and humidity to produce decent snow during winter 2010. According to my estimation, the winter season will arrive earlier than normal, and give way to an early spring of 2010.
No two El Ninos are the same, this is because although there are similar astronomical configurations, several bodies of these configurations often vary, producing multiple levels of length and intensities to both El Nino and La Nina types that affect the world's weather.
From National Geographic's report on the 1997-1998 El Nino event, "Nature's Vicious Cycle", we read -
""Peru was where it all began, but El Niño’s abnormal effects on the main components of climate—sunshine, temperature, atmospheric pressure, wind, humidity, precipitation, cloud formation, and ocean currents—changed weather patterns across the equatorial Pacific and in turn around the globe.
Indonesia and surrounding regions suffered months of drought. Forest fires burned furiously in Sumatra, Borneo, and Malaysia, forcing drivers to use their headlights at noon. The haze traveled thousands of miles to the west into the ordinarily sparkling air of the Maldive Islands, limiting visibility to half a mile [0.8 kilometer] at times.
Temperatures reached 108°F [42°C] in Mongolia; Kenya’s rainfall was 40 inches [100 centimeters] above normal; central Europe suffered record flooding that killed 55 in Poland and 60 in the Czech Republic; and Madagascar was battered with monsoons and cyclones.
In the U.S. mudslides and flash floods flattened communities from California to Mississippi, storms pounded the Gulf Coast, and tornadoes ripped Florida.
By the time the debris settled and the collective misery was tallied, the devastation had in some respects exceeded even that of the El Niño of 1982-83, which killed 2,000 worldwide and caused about 13 billion dollars in damage."
**ASTROMETEOROLOGICAL 2010 CLIMATE FORECAST**
The astronomical conditions that affect the Humboldt Current in the Pacific are not used by conventional scientists who still have difficulty understanding why the trade winds die down, and with air pressure flipping towards southern oscillation, or what is called ENSO.
In forecasting ENSO, statistical data is not reliable for this particular kinds of climate condition - which affects 50% of the planet when ENSO's are underway. Often the data scales used do not provide the reasons for the causes of El Nino and La Nina cycles, or their variations in strength and length.
In astrometeorology, the causes are known to be the activity of the Sun, and the magnetic modulating influences of the planets relative to the Earth. In 2009, there are astronomical conditions now building that strongly indicate that the Sun is about to emerge out of its minima state it entered in 2006.
The resulting increased sunspot activity signals that a warming of the Humboldt Current is about to begin in earnest as the Earth arrives at perihelion (orbits closer to the Sun) in early January 2010.
The year 1980, in astrometeorology, indicated that new configurations of astronomic activity called the "Cycle of the Sun" would begin with global warming, and extend for 36 years to about the year 2016, when a new cooling climate cycle would begin to emerge with record drops in world temperatures.
In my estimation, I have forecasted that this will occur by the year 2017, and from that year on, the world will emerge out of its earlier flood/drought state caused by the ENSO of 2010/2011, as well as closed off the 36-year period of global warming (1980-2016) and enter into a cooler climate featuring lessening El Ninos with increasing La Nina anomalous states into the 2020s, and peaking by the mid-2030s.
I have been forecasting for several years now that while the Earth will see another very strong El Nino, what we should really be concerned about longer-range is the increasing appearances of La Ninas, which often follow in the tracks of El Nino years, and produce the opposite effect - signs of a cooling global climate.
In my calculations, a new global cooling climate is on the way for the world, and will begin in the year 2017 with record temperature drops, continuing with cooler climate anomalies increasing in the 2020s, and coming to a peak by the mid-2030s.
The world is about to enter a long global cooling climate phase. Though the effects of the previous 36-year global warming will be with the Earth for many years to come, it will have officially come to an end by 2016-2017.
Records of El Ninos in the 20th century have shown that over the past 100 years there may have been at least 23 El Ninos and 15 La Ninas. Out of the most powerful 10 El Ninos of the last century, four (4) of the most damaging El Ninos have occurred since the year 1980 - the first year of global warming caused by the Cycle of the Sun (1980-2016.)
The coming ENSO in 2009 will emerge from neutral to moderate, but will still not be strong enough yet to harm Australia's wheat crops this year, however, the years 2010 and beyond to the mid-2010s will be a very different matter. In addition, we will begin to see more climate events associated with the Sun's activity through El Nino at the end of September 2009, and surely by the second week of January 2010.
I have calculated that by the time Jupiter emerges from the far side of the Sun on February 28, 2010, that the Sun will officially begin to increase and multiply its sunspot development for its new solar maximum cycle with additional coronal mass ejections through 2010 and 2011.
The effects of the coming El Nino will be nearly as substantial as the last one in 1997-98, according to my calculations, and will come close to rivaling that climate event, with lingering weather problems as a result beginning in the latter half of 2009 through to about June 2012. From the astronomical configurations, it appears that the ENSO of 2010-2012 will be a combination of the ENSO climate events of 1982-83 and that of 1997-1998.
However, 2010-11 is the big year for ENSO conditions. From my estimation, the year 2010 will be the year of the flood because of large storms with frequent and heavy precipitation.
TELECONNECTIONS: 2010/2011
In my ENSO 2010-11 forecast, I am seeing astronomic configurations that show this particular El Nino's warm temperatures will extend from the Humboldt Current in the Pacific, into coastal California, striking further south into the Antarctic.
This will have brought torrential rains into southern California as forecasted for the autumn of 2009. These rains signal the coming ENSO state forecasted to extend into 2010 and 2011.
The year 2010 has some of the strangest, and varied climate conditions I've seen in a quite a while. It is a year of many transitions - from brief, but powerful winter storms for the central Midwest and Eastern U.S., to a very wet climate in the far West, Southwest, Deep South, parts of the Midwest, and Southeastern U.S., featuring constant rains and torrential downpours with other regions on the other side of the world experiencing severe droughts, and praying for rain while back on the other side of the world, people are praying for the constant rains and flooding to stop.
Spring 2010: Warmer Temperatures & Floods
April, May, June 2010
I am forecasting a strong potential of the Mississippi River to flood in 2010 affecting the Deep South, Gulf regions, Central Midwest and the Southeast. Astronomical transits show ENSO conditions will bring heavy precipitation stretching from the frequency of the Pacific flow off the coast of Southern California through the Southwest and into the Deep Southern states, the lower Central Midwestern states, and into the Southeast, including Georgia and Florida.
**Astromet Spring 2010 Flood Forecast**
Regions Highlighted: Southern California, the Southwest, Deep South, Gulf of Mexico states, Central & Lower Midwest, and Southeastern U.S.
I am issuing a long-range forecast outlook for those living in the regions below to take precautions this winter for potentially powerful spring floods to occur in 2010.
Due to astronomical transits, I am issuing a heavy precipitation and flood warning for states that border the Mississippi River - stretching from the Great Lakes through the Heartland of the United States to the Gulf states and Deep South.
Tributaries of the Mississippi River should be monitored for rising water levels during the winter of 2010 and into early spring 2010.
There will be localized heavy flooding that also stretches into Alabama, Georgia, and Florida. The main states highlighted are Kansas, Arkansas, Northern Texas along the Red River; northeastern Oklahoma; southern Indiana & Illinois; the tip of western Kentucky; Southern Missouri; western Tennessee; and the state of Louisiana.
This covers an area of about 27,000 square miles.
In my estimation, because of the rains of autumn 2009, astronomical transits indicate that ENSO-induced rains will maintain a western Pacific flow though the southern U.S. and saturate rivers and ground soil. City planners may want to closely monitor water rise levels along the tributaries of the Mississippi during the
Rivers to watch are -
* The Ohio River
* The Arkansas River – stretching from central Kansas into the tip of northeastern Oklahoma through the state of Arkansas where the Arkansas River meets with the Mississippi River flowing through the state of western Mississippi
* The Red River – stretching from the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle
* The Mississippi River
River and stream levels should be carefully monitored, and Levee emergency plans reviewed to strengthen during the fall of 2009 into the winter months of 2010.
Homeowners in these regions should take prudent precautions in listening carefully to their local authorities and monitoring weather reports and alerts in their regions for potentially widespread, and early spring floods.
Winter 2010: Signs Of El Nino -
Winter 2010, as expected, is earlier than normal for most of the continental U.S. The season will feature a mostly active month of December 2009 of heavy cloud cover and snowstorms affecting two-thirds of the country. Southern California continues to feel the early stages of El Nino - featuring tropical like-rains and warmer than average temperatures.
January 2010 features colder than average temperatures stretching from the Rockies towards east of the Mississippi. Combined flows from the gulf with northwestern cold fronts and Alberta clippers will bring the snowfall into the Midwestern and eastern states as far as the Mid-Atlantic.
There is a threat of heavy snowfall, freezing rains and particularly ice storms affecting parts of the Great Lakes, Upper to Central Midwest, into the Ohio Valley, parts of the Mid-Atlantic states, and New England in mid-January 2010. The storms could be a repeat of the 1998 ice storm that struck these regions into Quebec.
The storms and torrential rains in the U.S. Southwestern and Desert Southeastern states will lead to localized flooding of rivers, and give the climate a very tropical, and wetter feel in 2010. Record rainfall is expected for these regions of the United States beginning in late 2009 and extending through all of 2010.
There are radical temperature variations and shifts, high gusting winds, then, giving way to increasing precipitation once more, to warm and muggy conditions, then, suddenly cooler and crisp weather conditions.
Then, back to cold and very wet conditions in the autumn of 2010 to a shortened Winter of 2011 that doesn't start until early February of that year, and which ends in March 2011 almost as soon as the winter got started in North America, leading to a very odd spring of 2011, that is at once cold, wet, then much warmer than normal almost at the same time.
Finally, by the summer of 2011 - we get a traditional summer season, and then a traditional fall season leading to a traditional winter season in North America, only to head into one of the earliest spring seasons in recent memory in the month of February 2012.
The year of 2010 into 2011 seems to have a very wide assortment of many varieties of climate conditions for everyone packed into one year - clearly a unique ENSO climate year for the world if there ever was one.
Moreover, the regions of India, Australia, Indonesia and China will be severely tested by a drought that will last into the mid-2010s when all is said and done.
The lack of rains in this region of the planet will make worldwide news, and cause a great amount of suffering if steps are not taken immediately to stock up food reserves before the worst of this El Nino has done its damage.
According to my calculations, the year 2010 will go down as one of the warmest and wettest years in recent memory in North and South America, and Europe - affecting about 50-percent of the planet. I expect major floods on those continents in 2010.
For regions in the United States, including the Southeastern, and Mid-Atlantic states, El Nino conditions will feature heavy rains and winds starting in the second half of the month November 2009, continuing to about December 10, 2009.
The onset of colder temperatures will arrive at the end of December, but with below average snowfall for many regions, excepting parts of the Inter-mountain west, and Upper Plains states.
The second half of December 2009 continues to see the shift from windy, warmer than average temperatures from much of December, then turning colder, and continued windy after Christmas Day and with potential snow falling during the daylight hours of New Year's Eve in New York.
January 2010 features colder than average temperatures starting off on January 1, 2010, with temperatures continuing to remain below average through the month, and featuring negligible snowfall for two-thirds of the nation, but with colder temperatures striking as far south as Texas and as far east as New England.
Mid-to-late January 2010 [/b]continues to be very cold throughout most of the United States with below normal average temperatures. The air is particularly biting cold, and sometimes wet to the bone with the threat of freezing rains and ice storms developing.
I am looking at the potential for ice storm conditions for the Northeastern U.S., also affecting New England and Southeastern Canada in mid-January 2010. The dates are Jan. 20,21,22,23,24,25. Resident should carefully watch freezing rains in January, and take precautions against the development of ice storms at that time.
After January 25, 2010, the climate, though very cold for two-thirds of the country, will begin a warming trend that will speed up in the month of February, and lead to warmer than average temperatures by late February and into March 2010.
In February 2010, the climate continues to be windy and very cold with ice events occurring during the month, but temperatures begin to warm by February 15 in the Eastern and mid-western states.
The Wyoming and Colorado Rockies continues to be colder than average in January and February with Chinook-like gusting winds, and blizzard like conditions with above average amounts of snowfall for the entire winter 2010. The best conditions for skiing in the nation will be in the Colorado Rockies in the entire winter of 2010.
The second half of February 2010's climate turns warmer east of the Rockies and leads to increasing precipitation of rain, mixed with snow showers through to the end of the month. Winter will effectively will come to an end on February 28, 2010.
The temperatures continue to warm into March 2010, with increasing precipitation in the Southeastern and Mid-Atlantic states. Most of the month of March is very wet, with warmer than average temperatures in North America.
Spring 2010 is early in my forecast, and will fueled by a strong, wet, and warmer Pacific flow into the United States by March 2010. The U.S. will have fully entered an ENSO state in 2010.
The real threat from this strong Pacific jet flow will be the tropical like rains falling on the Great Mississippi Valley states. There is a strong potential for heavy rains leading to floods on soil already saturated from the heavy rains of autumn 2009.
Farmers are urged to prepare for potential floods in the states noted above, and to expect an early harvest in 2010 after the long, delayed harvest of 2009 that stretched into January 2010 for many family farms.
By late April/early May 2010, it will effectively be summer already in the eyes of many. Spring will have hardly had a chance to mature before the summer climate intrudes with much warmer than average temperatures. Yet, the flood-ravaged states will continue to dig out of El Nino's spring storms.
The climate for North America turns downright muggy, stormy and much wetter than normal in June 2010. Summer has arrived much earlier than expected with summer thunderstorms and heavy rains typically seen in late late summer occurring for most of June.
The June 2010 climate is warmer than normal, wetter than normal with radical temperatures shifts from developing cold fronts meeting warm fronts and resulting in bouts of torrential downpours with large-sized hail, and thunderstorms. The downpours end about July 3, 2010, with a return to warmer than average, and humid temperatures for the month of July.
Drought regions will be further south, in Texas, and stretch to the Southwestern U.S., and into regions of Nevada, and eastern California will have been relieved from the heavy precipitation allowing for some relief to plant crops. I advise quick crops to be planted this year due to my forecast for increasing rains to extend during the 2010 harvest season.
Earlier spring rains and a saturated soil in parts of the Central Midwest, Deep South, and Southeast see spring flooding that could delay the planting season in 2010.
Increasing precipitation will be featured for coastal areas along California and stretching as far as the Gulf of Alaska, where fishing routes will see more warmer species being found as far as Alaska.
July and August 2010 sees fair summer weather, much like that of June, as temperatures begin to moderate from warm, humid, and muggy, to sometimes crisp and cool late September-like temperatures more common of the fall season than August, although August 2010 is more sultry in temperatures than the previous month of July, with partly cloudy skies, and most days seeing September-like weather in early August.
September 2010's skies are mostly clear, but stormy at times. September will actually feel to be warmer than the previous month of August felt to be. A rainy season in North America begins with a preview of what is to come in autumn 2010- a warm and tropical like September 2010 that gives ways to a rainy, cloudy, misty, and fog-shrouded October.
Mid-October 2010 sees some of the most dense fogs encountered for some years throughout regions of the country; especially on the West and East coasts, and in the Southeastern U.S., and Upper Great Lakes region. Air temperatures are warmer than average in October and the fall rainy season arrives earlier than normal.
October 2010's El Nino climate for the East U.S. Coast is wet, windy, with warmer than average temperatures. Tropical temperatures with near constant precipitation shows localized flooding in the months of October and November 2010 for the Mid-Atlantic states. The fall months of 2010 are long, wetter than normal, warmer than normal and mostly cloudy for the eastern third of the U.S.
Wet, foggy, and clammy climate continues into November 2010, with moderate to above average warm temperatures, with a combination of very wet, warm, and sometimes windy conditions pervading through the month. The second half of November sees clearing skies, above average temperatures but with increasingly windy conditions.
The wet weather since October becomes less common after November 16, 2010, giving way to bright blue skies sometimes interrupted by sudden rains and gusting winds frequently during the month. The last three (3) days of November 2010 is colder, wet, with damaging winds, and very stormy.
December 2010 continues the stormy, wet, and windy weather across regions of the nation; especially for the Mid-Atlantic, Southeastern U..S., and the central Midwestern states. There are rare tornado activity at the end of November, and into early December stretching from the Central Midwestern states into the Ohio Valley and parts of western Pennsylvania.
The last 2-3 days of November, and the first week of December 2010 is particularly stormy across the nation; stormy seas in the Gulf of Alaska; torrential rains stretching from the Great Lakes through the central Midwest and extending down into the Gulf of Mexico.
Dense fogs in the valleys of the Great Plains lead to below average cold temperatures and snowfall in the Desert Southwest; snow also falls in the Pocono Mountains of Pennsylvania, in Appalachia, and in the central Texas/Oklahoma panhandle, where winds, heavy rains lead to flooding.
The month of December 2010 is a very stormy month for most of the United States and offers a bit of everything from damaging winds, heavy torrential rains, blizzards, dense fogs, and thunder snow.
Radical and sudden temperatures shifts due the interplay between large warm and cold pressure systems that track through the country led by a powerful jet stream raging storms from the west to the southwest and then into southeastern U.S., and from the Northwest into the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and the Northeastern U.S.
December 2010 will turn out to be one of the more significant weather months of the year before the climate weather settles down across most of the nation significantly by December 28, 2010.
Winter 2011, in my estimation, arrives later than normal (starting early February 2011 and ending late April 2011) for much of the U.S. The late winter 2011 season will have been due to the previous extended fall season, which is wetter and warmer than normal lasting in my estimation, through to late January 2011.
I will publish my 2011 general long-range forecast in early 2010.
All in all - the impact of ENSO on the United States, and half the globe will be very newsworthy by the end of the common year of 2010.
Comments on 2010 Climate -
A stormy year is ahead for many countries in 2010. According to my forecast the year will be warmer and much wetter than normal leading to widespread floods on three continents; parts of Asia, the Americas, and Europe.
Flooding of regions has been recorded in late December 2009 in parts of the Americas and Europe and continues into early January. Heavy rains have led to widespread floods in Argentina, Spain, and Portugal. This will become more common in other regions as 2010 progresses.
I expect many more regions to experience significant flooding in a year dominated by El Nino.
This particular El Nino, from my analysis, appears to be a combination of the 1982-83 ENSO and the 1997-98 ENSO, but will exhibit unusual features not seen in previously recorded ENSO states.
This will make the developing ENSO state not only an historic one, but also an unusual climate phenomena worthy of lengthy study after all is said and done.
{END}
Theodore White; astrometeorologist.S
Re-issued: December 23, 2009
Long-Range Climate Outlook & 2010 Forecast
Region: North America
The Sun Completes Global Warming Phase With Powerful ENSO
By Theodore White; astrometeorologist.S
Forecast Issued: December 2008
*Updated: December 23, 2009
[*Included: Spring 2010 Flood Warnings For Mississippi River & Tributaries*]
Comments on El Nino -
My forecast for the coming El Nino to arrive in mid-2009 will soon be verified by the appearance of rising sea temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Astronomic indications confirm that the new celestial cycles, mainly those of the Sun, and the planets in April/May 2009, clearly reveal that a new ENSO was on the horizon.
NOAA and other global climatologists continue to see rising temperatures in the eastern Pacific, now about 1-degree Celsius above normal, with receding trade winds. This is a standard sign of a coming ENSO.
Updates On El Nino - www.elnino.noaa.gov/ani.html
Some forecasters had been wary in 2008-09 as competing computer models that forecast climate conditions differed; as some indicated an El Nino is on the way, and others continue to show neutral ENSO conditions.
Many forecasts still are not certain of the strength and length of the coming ENSO. However, many forecasters will have to revise their outlooks sooner rather than later.
From my long-range astronomical calculations for North America, I've forecasted 2010-11 to be a very strong El Nino year. This is caused mainly by the activity of the Sun, which will undergo an historic solar maximum that will bring to an end the 36-year global warming phase that began in the year 1980 while opening a new global cooling phase that will get underway by the year 2017.
In the meantime, I am also forecasting that the years of late 2009 to 2016 will feature some of the world's wildest climate and weather events of the early 21st century that, by the mid-2010s, will have seen the close of the current 36-year phase of global warming that Earth has experienced since 1980.
By 2010, in my estimation, we will have entered the 30th year of Solar-forced global warming. These last six-to-seven-and-a-half years, from 2010 to about 2017, will likely feature some of the warmest global temperatures recorded in the entire 36th year global warming cycle.
This cycle, like that of global cooling on its way in the decades ahead - is directly caused by the Sun.
The next 6-7 years, from this outlook, shows the next several winters will be brief with the seasons showing three (3) early and short seasons, and one extended long season.
For example, I see 2010 seasonally this way for North America - these are general guidelines from my astronomical calculations on our nation's long-range climate next year -
*Winter 2010 - early - active, done by March 2010.
*Spring 2010 - early - active, widespread floods, warmer than normal temperatures. My biggest concern is the potential flooding of the Mississippi in early Spring 2010. For more, see my forecast below.
*Summer 2010 - early, hotter than normal, but a short summer. It seems to zip right by, coming early in May 2010 like it did - so that after the first 10 days of August, one should be able to detect a "late September-like chill" in the air in the August nights. By mid-September, for certain, brisk autumn like days, with cooler than average temperatures felt across a third of the country. It appears that summer isn't going to stick around for long, and there are wetter months ahead, more than usual for the strange fall season of 2010 just ahead.
**Fall 2010 - the season starts off with what "appears" to be another early Indian summer, but then Fall turns into a very wet, extended, and warmer-than-normal season w/ tropical air, torrential rains. This is going to be a longer-than-normal fall season that extends right into January 2011.
By this time in fall 2010, the Mid-Atlantic should be well within the throes of El Nino, with above average rainfall, and warmer than average temperatures.
The earlier brisk air of August/September 2010 will by the end of September give way to warmer than average temperatures, and increased precipitation. Rains continue through October, November, December 2010 and into early January 2011. By the time the fall season is over, it will be early February 2011, and winter will have arrived two months later than normal.
From my calculations, fall like conditions, but much wetter and warmer than normal will last for nearly six months (beginning in August 2010 and ending by early February 2011.) Precipitation of rains in autumn 2010 are above average, as is the temperature, for the eastern third of the nation.
Make best friends with all your rain gear, and umbrellas next fall. It's going to be a longer stretch of warm and wet than most people will have expected. Enjoy that previous summer because it's going to be a rather quick summer, and you will need all the sunshine you can soak up before the long wet and stormy fall of 2010.
*Winter 2011 - arrives late, not starting until early Feb. 2011, colder than normal, La Nina phase. Mid-winter conditions will exist through March, and winter conditions will persist into April 2011, making for a colder, and later than normal Spring of 2011.
*Spring 2011 - looks like what I call a "Frosted Spring." Ever see a time in early spring where some flowers and trees have begun to bloom and then cold temperatures and a winter storm hits? Then, the next day you get up, the storm has passed over, the skies are clearing and everything that has slightly bloomed is frozen and glittering in the sunlight in the chill of the cold air?
That's what the start of late Spring of 2011 looks like to me.
The lightly budding trees are frozen with ice and it appears as if the early planting season will be delayed in March/April 2011 because of late winter storms, and colder than normal temperatures.
The ground soil is still quite frozen due to the late arrival of the winter season that previous February. Budding trees and plants along with crop losses are possible due to the interference of the late winter season storms of 2011.
It appears as if the La Nina phase has kicked in with these late winter storms and colder than normal temperatures. March 2011 is a particularly brutal month of arctic temperatures, and winter storms across North America.
I've analyzed astronomical transits relating to the climate, and combined them with the expected condition of the Sun to form my forecast and climate outlook.
My findings below is generally for the United States and the northern hemisphere. I do include brief mention of various international locations.
SOLAR CYCLE #24
It is important not to take this particular El Nino lightly. The Sun is beginning to pick up activity, a sure sign of coming climate changes on Earth.
In 2008, out of the year's 365 days, the Sun was blank (no sunspots) 73% of the year, about 266 days. The Sun has been in the longest known solar minimum recorded since 1901 and 1913.
All that ended in 2009, and going into 2010, the Sun is seeing a continued pickup in sunspot activity which signals the start of Solar Cycle #24.
Recent measurements by NASA show a direct correlation to the Sun's minimum to cooler global temperatures. The opposite of what has been forecasted by man-made global warming advocates.
I have continued to state that the causes of all climate change is astronomical - global warming and global cooling - and is solar-forced.
NASA recently stated December 17, 2009 that -
"New measurements from a NASA satellite show a dramatic cooling in the upper atmosphere that correlates with the declining phase of the current solar cycle. For the first time, researchers can show a timely link between the Sun and the climate of Earth’s thermosphere, the region above 100 km, an essential step in making accurate predictions of climate change in the high atmosphere."
A new sunspot imaged on September 23, 2008, is in the expected location to signal the start of Solar Cycle #24, see -
www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/soho/sunspot_20080923.html
A new sunspot group issuing frequent solar flares was detected December 14, 2009 on the Sun's surface. Stretching the length of nine Earths, this new sunspot group continues to signal that the Sun's three-year minima cycle is coming to an end -
See - soho.esac.esa.int/pickoftheweek/
I also expect this new Solar maximum cycle to grow stronger into the early-to-mid-2010s, which will mean a very active several years of climate changes, featuring intense weather patterns on the Earth.
This will be an historic solar maximum lasting to about the year 2015-16 - three years longer than expected by most scientists.
In my estimation, since the Cycle of The Sun began in May 1980 causing the eruption of Mount St. Helen's and opening up the current 36-year phase of global warming.
I expect the Sun's new maximum to close on its cycle with a very active series of sunspot activity to rival many previous maximums and cause the Earth's climate to react powerfully between 2010 through to the year 2016.
Because of this, we are facing a strong six-to-seven-year series of climate events that will close the door on global warming and open up a new global cooling cycle, but the damaging effects of global warming caused by the Sun's activity since 1980 will last into the 2020s.
However, according to my longer-range calculations, the earth should begin to see signs and increasing frequencies of colder La Nina phases with weaker El Nino events into the late 2010s. These cooler anomalies will indicate stronger signals that a new era of global cooling will begin in about the year 2016-17.
This globally cooler era should peak in the mid-2030s and last to about the year 2052 - a 36-year climate cycle of global cooling.
EL NINO 2010/2011
For over two years, I continued to forecast that a new El Nino was on the way from my astronomic calculations. This ENSO will dominate the world's weather events through all of 2010, into 2011 and 2012, via very strong teleconnections when the world can expect increased flooding from powerful storms with resulting mudslides from torrential rains to the coasts of Ecuador and Peru and to the coasts of southern California.
Droughts can spread through the countries of Australia, China, India, Indonesia, India, Philippines, and Africa. One region of the world - South Asia - will see an powerful series of climate-related disasters as a result from the Sun's activity and effects on the world's coverall climate. It is calculated that world's population at risk from ENSO-related disasters is somewhere between 187 to 250 million people globally.
Forecasters, climatologists, meteorologists, and those who are weather and climate spotters and watchers will have their hands very full dealing with ENSO-related weather patterns from now through to June 2012, according to my forecast.
This summer and autumn is a good time to get your weather equipment set and tuned up. It is also essential for those living in regions where El Nino is known to have particular weather effects to prepare your emergency plans and store supplies for the latter half of 2009 and all through the year 2010, 2011, and 2012. Further preventive plans will need to be made for additional damaging weather events related to the impacts of ENSO in the years 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016.
The shifts in storm tracks from El Nino (2010-2012) and precipitation patterns will greatly affect seasonal forecasts during these years to the extent where forecasters will have to use ENSO models to adjust their seasonal forecasts for annual rain, drought, and snowfall amounts in North America, and elsewhere.
Because ENSO conditions are not regulated to calendar years, and often extend beyond one year, through to three or four years in length at times, the best conventional models not based on astronomic calculations on the causes, but those related to building readings of the effects would be Sea-Surface Temperature (SST) readings; the Southern Oscillation Model (SOI) and the Multi-Variate ENSO Index (MEI) for large position values (El Nino) and to read for coming large negative values (La Nina.)
At this time in July 2009, scientists are already seeing the precursor signs of the onset phase of ENSO with seasonal warming off the coasts of Peru persisting.
By late August 2009, sea-surface temperatures will continue to rise, and we should see changes in the SOI models further confirming ENSO with negative values, along with recording of pressure increases at Darwin station in Australia matched by pressure decreases at the Tahiti climate station.
La Nina Anomaly in 2011?
Although I have forecasted the return of El Nino in 2009, into 2010, and 2011, I am also forecasting a La Nina event to follow in the Northern Hemispheric Winter of 2011 to take place in the months of February, March, and April of that year.
My analysis of astronomical motions correlating to a La Nina shows that the 2010 El Nino will be followed by the cooler La Nina phase.
For more on La Nina, see - www.elnino.noaa.gov/lanina.html
There is a very strong potential of heavier than normal snowfalls along the eastern seaboard of the United States at that time especially affecting the Southeastern, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeastern states with drought spreading from southern Texas along to the Gulf states and into parts of the central Midwest.
The spring of 2011 looks surprising sluggish again, and reminds me slightly of the spring of 2009 - but with ENSO climate impacts. The month of February 2011 is particularly odd, as the month of January 2011 seems to be warmer and windier than usual for many regions in the United States - with one exception - there appears to be more snow for the Eastern and Southeastern U.S. with the heaviest snows falling in the month of March 2011.
Drought is also one my biggest concerns from this particular ENSO. Because of certain astronomic indications, some of the world's regions other than the southern to Midwestern United States will see a the spread of droughts and dust storms that may last into the year 2015 at varying intensities along the way - leading to starvation from the year-after-year lack of rains, particularly in parts of eastern and central Africa, all of India, northern & southern China, Indonesia, northern and central Australia, the Philippines, and Japan.
I expect drought conditions to lead to increasing threat of food shortages, and large brush fires in countries like Sumatra, with another air-pollution alert in the neighboring countries of Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia and Singapore.
Another concern are water-born diseases like cholera and malaria resulting from heavy rainfall and increased precipitation along with the warmer temperatures associated with El Nino years. This will be particularly the case in central America where intense hurricanes in the southern and central Pacific will rage in 2010. Typhoons will also be active in the eastern region of northwestern Pacific.
I've been forecasting a warmer and wetter winter for most of North America in Winter 2010, plus, just before this coming winter arrives, increasing rains for the Far West, stretching into the Inter-mountain west, and the Pacific Northwest, heavy rains in the Southwestern Desert states and Southeastern U.S.
The U.S. East Coast will experience a warmer winter, but with enough precipitation and humidity to produce decent snow during winter 2010. According to my estimation, the winter season will arrive earlier than normal, and give way to an early spring of 2010.
No two El Ninos are the same, this is because although there are similar astronomical configurations, several bodies of these configurations often vary, producing multiple levels of length and intensities to both El Nino and La Nina types that affect the world's weather.
From National Geographic's report on the 1997-1998 El Nino event, "Nature's Vicious Cycle", we read -
""Peru was where it all began, but El Niño’s abnormal effects on the main components of climate—sunshine, temperature, atmospheric pressure, wind, humidity, precipitation, cloud formation, and ocean currents—changed weather patterns across the equatorial Pacific and in turn around the globe.
Indonesia and surrounding regions suffered months of drought. Forest fires burned furiously in Sumatra, Borneo, and Malaysia, forcing drivers to use their headlights at noon. The haze traveled thousands of miles to the west into the ordinarily sparkling air of the Maldive Islands, limiting visibility to half a mile [0.8 kilometer] at times.
Temperatures reached 108°F [42°C] in Mongolia; Kenya’s rainfall was 40 inches [100 centimeters] above normal; central Europe suffered record flooding that killed 55 in Poland and 60 in the Czech Republic; and Madagascar was battered with monsoons and cyclones.
In the U.S. mudslides and flash floods flattened communities from California to Mississippi, storms pounded the Gulf Coast, and tornadoes ripped Florida.
By the time the debris settled and the collective misery was tallied, the devastation had in some respects exceeded even that of the El Niño of 1982-83, which killed 2,000 worldwide and caused about 13 billion dollars in damage."
**ASTROMETEOROLOGICAL 2010 CLIMATE FORECAST**
The astronomical conditions that affect the Humboldt Current in the Pacific are not used by conventional scientists who still have difficulty understanding why the trade winds die down, and with air pressure flipping towards southern oscillation, or what is called ENSO.
In forecasting ENSO, statistical data is not reliable for this particular kinds of climate condition - which affects 50% of the planet when ENSO's are underway. Often the data scales used do not provide the reasons for the causes of El Nino and La Nina cycles, or their variations in strength and length.
In astrometeorology, the causes are known to be the activity of the Sun, and the magnetic modulating influences of the planets relative to the Earth. In 2009, there are astronomical conditions now building that strongly indicate that the Sun is about to emerge out of its minima state it entered in 2006.
The resulting increased sunspot activity signals that a warming of the Humboldt Current is about to begin in earnest as the Earth arrives at perihelion (orbits closer to the Sun) in early January 2010.
The year 1980, in astrometeorology, indicated that new configurations of astronomic activity called the "Cycle of the Sun" would begin with global warming, and extend for 36 years to about the year 2016, when a new cooling climate cycle would begin to emerge with record drops in world temperatures.
In my estimation, I have forecasted that this will occur by the year 2017, and from that year on, the world will emerge out of its earlier flood/drought state caused by the ENSO of 2010/2011, as well as closed off the 36-year period of global warming (1980-2016) and enter into a cooler climate featuring lessening El Ninos with increasing La Nina anomalous states into the 2020s, and peaking by the mid-2030s.
I have been forecasting for several years now that while the Earth will see another very strong El Nino, what we should really be concerned about longer-range is the increasing appearances of La Ninas, which often follow in the tracks of El Nino years, and produce the opposite effect - signs of a cooling global climate.
In my calculations, a new global cooling climate is on the way for the world, and will begin in the year 2017 with record temperature drops, continuing with cooler climate anomalies increasing in the 2020s, and coming to a peak by the mid-2030s.
The world is about to enter a long global cooling climate phase. Though the effects of the previous 36-year global warming will be with the Earth for many years to come, it will have officially come to an end by 2016-2017.
Records of El Ninos in the 20th century have shown that over the past 100 years there may have been at least 23 El Ninos and 15 La Ninas. Out of the most powerful 10 El Ninos of the last century, four (4) of the most damaging El Ninos have occurred since the year 1980 - the first year of global warming caused by the Cycle of the Sun (1980-2016.)
The coming ENSO in 2009 will emerge from neutral to moderate, but will still not be strong enough yet to harm Australia's wheat crops this year, however, the years 2010 and beyond to the mid-2010s will be a very different matter. In addition, we will begin to see more climate events associated with the Sun's activity through El Nino at the end of September 2009, and surely by the second week of January 2010.
I have calculated that by the time Jupiter emerges from the far side of the Sun on February 28, 2010, that the Sun will officially begin to increase and multiply its sunspot development for its new solar maximum cycle with additional coronal mass ejections through 2010 and 2011.
The effects of the coming El Nino will be nearly as substantial as the last one in 1997-98, according to my calculations, and will come close to rivaling that climate event, with lingering weather problems as a result beginning in the latter half of 2009 through to about June 2012. From the astronomical configurations, it appears that the ENSO of 2010-2012 will be a combination of the ENSO climate events of 1982-83 and that of 1997-1998.
However, 2010-11 is the big year for ENSO conditions. From my estimation, the year 2010 will be the year of the flood because of large storms with frequent and heavy precipitation.
TELECONNECTIONS: 2010/2011
In my ENSO 2010-11 forecast, I am seeing astronomic configurations that show this particular El Nino's warm temperatures will extend from the Humboldt Current in the Pacific, into coastal California, striking further south into the Antarctic.
This will have brought torrential rains into southern California as forecasted for the autumn of 2009. These rains signal the coming ENSO state forecasted to extend into 2010 and 2011.
The year 2010 has some of the strangest, and varied climate conditions I've seen in a quite a while. It is a year of many transitions - from brief, but powerful winter storms for the central Midwest and Eastern U.S., to a very wet climate in the far West, Southwest, Deep South, parts of the Midwest, and Southeastern U.S., featuring constant rains and torrential downpours with other regions on the other side of the world experiencing severe droughts, and praying for rain while back on the other side of the world, people are praying for the constant rains and flooding to stop.
Spring 2010: Warmer Temperatures & Floods
April, May, June 2010
I am forecasting a strong potential of the Mississippi River to flood in 2010 affecting the Deep South, Gulf regions, Central Midwest and the Southeast. Astronomical transits show ENSO conditions will bring heavy precipitation stretching from the frequency of the Pacific flow off the coast of Southern California through the Southwest and into the Deep Southern states, the lower Central Midwestern states, and into the Southeast, including Georgia and Florida.
**Astromet Spring 2010 Flood Forecast**
Regions Highlighted: Southern California, the Southwest, Deep South, Gulf of Mexico states, Central & Lower Midwest, and Southeastern U.S.
I am issuing a long-range forecast outlook for those living in the regions below to take precautions this winter for potentially powerful spring floods to occur in 2010.
Due to astronomical transits, I am issuing a heavy precipitation and flood warning for states that border the Mississippi River - stretching from the Great Lakes through the Heartland of the United States to the Gulf states and Deep South.
Tributaries of the Mississippi River should be monitored for rising water levels during the winter of 2010 and into early spring 2010.
There will be localized heavy flooding that also stretches into Alabama, Georgia, and Florida. The main states highlighted are Kansas, Arkansas, Northern Texas along the Red River; northeastern Oklahoma; southern Indiana & Illinois; the tip of western Kentucky; Southern Missouri; western Tennessee; and the state of Louisiana.
This covers an area of about 27,000 square miles.
In my estimation, because of the rains of autumn 2009, astronomical transits indicate that ENSO-induced rains will maintain a western Pacific flow though the southern U.S. and saturate rivers and ground soil. City planners may want to closely monitor water rise levels along the tributaries of the Mississippi during the
Rivers to watch are -
* The Ohio River
* The Arkansas River – stretching from central Kansas into the tip of northeastern Oklahoma through the state of Arkansas where the Arkansas River meets with the Mississippi River flowing through the state of western Mississippi
* The Red River – stretching from the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle
* The Mississippi River
River and stream levels should be carefully monitored, and Levee emergency plans reviewed to strengthen during the fall of 2009 into the winter months of 2010.
Homeowners in these regions should take prudent precautions in listening carefully to their local authorities and monitoring weather reports and alerts in their regions for potentially widespread, and early spring floods.
Winter 2010: Signs Of El Nino -
Winter 2010, as expected, is earlier than normal for most of the continental U.S. The season will feature a mostly active month of December 2009 of heavy cloud cover and snowstorms affecting two-thirds of the country. Southern California continues to feel the early stages of El Nino - featuring tropical like-rains and warmer than average temperatures.
January 2010 features colder than average temperatures stretching from the Rockies towards east of the Mississippi. Combined flows from the gulf with northwestern cold fronts and Alberta clippers will bring the snowfall into the Midwestern and eastern states as far as the Mid-Atlantic.
There is a threat of heavy snowfall, freezing rains and particularly ice storms affecting parts of the Great Lakes, Upper to Central Midwest, into the Ohio Valley, parts of the Mid-Atlantic states, and New England in mid-January 2010. The storms could be a repeat of the 1998 ice storm that struck these regions into Quebec.
The storms and torrential rains in the U.S. Southwestern and Desert Southeastern states will lead to localized flooding of rivers, and give the climate a very tropical, and wetter feel in 2010. Record rainfall is expected for these regions of the United States beginning in late 2009 and extending through all of 2010.
There are radical temperature variations and shifts, high gusting winds, then, giving way to increasing precipitation once more, to warm and muggy conditions, then, suddenly cooler and crisp weather conditions.
Then, back to cold and very wet conditions in the autumn of 2010 to a shortened Winter of 2011 that doesn't start until early February of that year, and which ends in March 2011 almost as soon as the winter got started in North America, leading to a very odd spring of 2011, that is at once cold, wet, then much warmer than normal almost at the same time.
Finally, by the summer of 2011 - we get a traditional summer season, and then a traditional fall season leading to a traditional winter season in North America, only to head into one of the earliest spring seasons in recent memory in the month of February 2012.
The year of 2010 into 2011 seems to have a very wide assortment of many varieties of climate conditions for everyone packed into one year - clearly a unique ENSO climate year for the world if there ever was one.
Moreover, the regions of India, Australia, Indonesia and China will be severely tested by a drought that will last into the mid-2010s when all is said and done.
The lack of rains in this region of the planet will make worldwide news, and cause a great amount of suffering if steps are not taken immediately to stock up food reserves before the worst of this El Nino has done its damage.
According to my calculations, the year 2010 will go down as one of the warmest and wettest years in recent memory in North and South America, and Europe - affecting about 50-percent of the planet. I expect major floods on those continents in 2010.
For regions in the United States, including the Southeastern, and Mid-Atlantic states, El Nino conditions will feature heavy rains and winds starting in the second half of the month November 2009, continuing to about December 10, 2009.
The onset of colder temperatures will arrive at the end of December, but with below average snowfall for many regions, excepting parts of the Inter-mountain west, and Upper Plains states.
The second half of December 2009 continues to see the shift from windy, warmer than average temperatures from much of December, then turning colder, and continued windy after Christmas Day and with potential snow falling during the daylight hours of New Year's Eve in New York.
January 2010 features colder than average temperatures starting off on January 1, 2010, with temperatures continuing to remain below average through the month, and featuring negligible snowfall for two-thirds of the nation, but with colder temperatures striking as far south as Texas and as far east as New England.
Mid-to-late January 2010 [/b]continues to be very cold throughout most of the United States with below normal average temperatures. The air is particularly biting cold, and sometimes wet to the bone with the threat of freezing rains and ice storms developing.
I am looking at the potential for ice storm conditions for the Northeastern U.S., also affecting New England and Southeastern Canada in mid-January 2010. The dates are Jan. 20,21,22,23,24,25. Resident should carefully watch freezing rains in January, and take precautions against the development of ice storms at that time.
After January 25, 2010, the climate, though very cold for two-thirds of the country, will begin a warming trend that will speed up in the month of February, and lead to warmer than average temperatures by late February and into March 2010.
In February 2010, the climate continues to be windy and very cold with ice events occurring during the month, but temperatures begin to warm by February 15 in the Eastern and mid-western states.
The Wyoming and Colorado Rockies continues to be colder than average in January and February with Chinook-like gusting winds, and blizzard like conditions with above average amounts of snowfall for the entire winter 2010. The best conditions for skiing in the nation will be in the Colorado Rockies in the entire winter of 2010.
The second half of February 2010's climate turns warmer east of the Rockies and leads to increasing precipitation of rain, mixed with snow showers through to the end of the month. Winter will effectively will come to an end on February 28, 2010.
The temperatures continue to warm into March 2010, with increasing precipitation in the Southeastern and Mid-Atlantic states. Most of the month of March is very wet, with warmer than average temperatures in North America.
Spring 2010 is early in my forecast, and will fueled by a strong, wet, and warmer Pacific flow into the United States by March 2010. The U.S. will have fully entered an ENSO state in 2010.
The real threat from this strong Pacific jet flow will be the tropical like rains falling on the Great Mississippi Valley states. There is a strong potential for heavy rains leading to floods on soil already saturated from the heavy rains of autumn 2009.
Farmers are urged to prepare for potential floods in the states noted above, and to expect an early harvest in 2010 after the long, delayed harvest of 2009 that stretched into January 2010 for many family farms.
By late April/early May 2010, it will effectively be summer already in the eyes of many. Spring will have hardly had a chance to mature before the summer climate intrudes with much warmer than average temperatures. Yet, the flood-ravaged states will continue to dig out of El Nino's spring storms.
The climate for North America turns downright muggy, stormy and much wetter than normal in June 2010. Summer has arrived much earlier than expected with summer thunderstorms and heavy rains typically seen in late late summer occurring for most of June.
The June 2010 climate is warmer than normal, wetter than normal with radical temperatures shifts from developing cold fronts meeting warm fronts and resulting in bouts of torrential downpours with large-sized hail, and thunderstorms. The downpours end about July 3, 2010, with a return to warmer than average, and humid temperatures for the month of July.
Drought regions will be further south, in Texas, and stretch to the Southwestern U.S., and into regions of Nevada, and eastern California will have been relieved from the heavy precipitation allowing for some relief to plant crops. I advise quick crops to be planted this year due to my forecast for increasing rains to extend during the 2010 harvest season.
Earlier spring rains and a saturated soil in parts of the Central Midwest, Deep South, and Southeast see spring flooding that could delay the planting season in 2010.
Increasing precipitation will be featured for coastal areas along California and stretching as far as the Gulf of Alaska, where fishing routes will see more warmer species being found as far as Alaska.
July and August 2010 sees fair summer weather, much like that of June, as temperatures begin to moderate from warm, humid, and muggy, to sometimes crisp and cool late September-like temperatures more common of the fall season than August, although August 2010 is more sultry in temperatures than the previous month of July, with partly cloudy skies, and most days seeing September-like weather in early August.
September 2010's skies are mostly clear, but stormy at times. September will actually feel to be warmer than the previous month of August felt to be. A rainy season in North America begins with a preview of what is to come in autumn 2010- a warm and tropical like September 2010 that gives ways to a rainy, cloudy, misty, and fog-shrouded October.
Mid-October 2010 sees some of the most dense fogs encountered for some years throughout regions of the country; especially on the West and East coasts, and in the Southeastern U.S., and Upper Great Lakes region. Air temperatures are warmer than average in October and the fall rainy season arrives earlier than normal.
October 2010's El Nino climate for the East U.S. Coast is wet, windy, with warmer than average temperatures. Tropical temperatures with near constant precipitation shows localized flooding in the months of October and November 2010 for the Mid-Atlantic states. The fall months of 2010 are long, wetter than normal, warmer than normal and mostly cloudy for the eastern third of the U.S.
Wet, foggy, and clammy climate continues into November 2010, with moderate to above average warm temperatures, with a combination of very wet, warm, and sometimes windy conditions pervading through the month. The second half of November sees clearing skies, above average temperatures but with increasingly windy conditions.
The wet weather since October becomes less common after November 16, 2010, giving way to bright blue skies sometimes interrupted by sudden rains and gusting winds frequently during the month. The last three (3) days of November 2010 is colder, wet, with damaging winds, and very stormy.
December 2010 continues the stormy, wet, and windy weather across regions of the nation; especially for the Mid-Atlantic, Southeastern U..S., and the central Midwestern states. There are rare tornado activity at the end of November, and into early December stretching from the Central Midwestern states into the Ohio Valley and parts of western Pennsylvania.
The last 2-3 days of November, and the first week of December 2010 is particularly stormy across the nation; stormy seas in the Gulf of Alaska; torrential rains stretching from the Great Lakes through the central Midwest and extending down into the Gulf of Mexico.
Dense fogs in the valleys of the Great Plains lead to below average cold temperatures and snowfall in the Desert Southwest; snow also falls in the Pocono Mountains of Pennsylvania, in Appalachia, and in the central Texas/Oklahoma panhandle, where winds, heavy rains lead to flooding.
The month of December 2010 is a very stormy month for most of the United States and offers a bit of everything from damaging winds, heavy torrential rains, blizzards, dense fogs, and thunder snow.
Radical and sudden temperatures shifts due the interplay between large warm and cold pressure systems that track through the country led by a powerful jet stream raging storms from the west to the southwest and then into southeastern U.S., and from the Northwest into the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and the Northeastern U.S.
December 2010 will turn out to be one of the more significant weather months of the year before the climate weather settles down across most of the nation significantly by December 28, 2010.
Winter 2011, in my estimation, arrives later than normal (starting early February 2011 and ending late April 2011) for much of the U.S. The late winter 2011 season will have been due to the previous extended fall season, which is wetter and warmer than normal lasting in my estimation, through to late January 2011.
I will publish my 2011 general long-range forecast in early 2010.
All in all - the impact of ENSO on the United States, and half the globe will be very newsworthy by the end of the common year of 2010.
Comments on 2010 Climate -
A stormy year is ahead for many countries in 2010. According to my forecast the year will be warmer and much wetter than normal leading to widespread floods on three continents; parts of Asia, the Americas, and Europe.
Flooding of regions has been recorded in late December 2009 in parts of the Americas and Europe and continues into early January. Heavy rains have led to widespread floods in Argentina, Spain, and Portugal. This will become more common in other regions as 2010 progresses.
I expect many more regions to experience significant flooding in a year dominated by El Nino.
This particular El Nino, from my analysis, appears to be a combination of the 1982-83 ENSO and the 1997-98 ENSO, but will exhibit unusual features not seen in previously recorded ENSO states.
This will make the developing ENSO state not only an historic one, but also an unusual climate phenomena worthy of lengthy study after all is said and done.
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Theodore White; astrometeorologist.S
Re-issued: December 23, 2009