low geomagnatic flux

[nofreewind]

So the sun is quiet and the geomagnetic flux died, and that is supposed to allow more cosmic rays, but how long do it take for that effect to reach planet earth in the form of more cosmic rays. Although I know that cosmic rays are very high right now, are they going much higher and in how long?
cosmicrays.oulu.fi/

wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/07/suns-magnetic-index-reaches-unprecedent-low-only-zero-could-be-lower-in-a-month-when-sunspots-became-more-active/

while we are at it, what part of this goes with above?
isccp.giss.nasa.gov/climanal7.html

[scpg02]

I heard from one scientist that the satellites have not detected any change in cosmic radiation.

[bxs]

And upon this field, the future may hinge.

The solar system is passing through a region of the Milky Way filled with cosmic rays and interstellar clouds. The magnetic field of our own sun, inflated by the solar wind into a bubble called the "heliosphere," substantially protects us from these things. However, the bubble itself is vulnerable to external fields. A strong magnetic field just outside the solar system could press against the heliosphere and interact with it in unknown ways. Will this strengthen our natural shielding—or weaken it? No one can say.

science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2010/15jan_ibex2.htm

[sentient]

Jan 8, 2010 6:43:30 GMT scpg02 said:

I heard from one scientist that the satellites have not detected any change in cosmic radiation.

Attachments:

[boxman]

Jan 8, 2010 6:43:30 GMT scpg02 said:

I heard from one scientist that the satellites have not detected any change in cosmic radiation.

I am sure that is wrong.. More cosmic rays are definitely hitting us: cosmicrays.oulu.fi/webform/query.cgi?startdate=1964/12/16&starttime=00:00&enddate=2010/01/16&endtime=05:04&resolution=Automatic%20choice&picture=on
Not only has the cosmic rays increased, but they are the highest since they started recording them in 60s. Even nasa announced earlier this year that cosmic rays are highest since at least the start of space age.
You can also easily see that they are modulated by the solar cycles. There is absolutely no doubt that solar activity affect cosmic rays.

Edit: Seems like one must copy & paste the link as it does not seem to work to click on such long links.

[glc]

I heard from one scientist that the satellites have not detected any change in cosmic radiation.

Not strictly true. He probably means there has been no long term trend in CR. CR count varies over the course of a solar cycle, but the trend has remained flat.

However, I wouldn't get too focused on cosmic rays or any other solar-related data. The world is continuing to warm. A fact that will become evident over the next few months.

Consider the recent UAH satellite record:

September 2009 - near record for Sept
November 2009 - record for November
January 2010 - 90% chance of a record for January

If the El Nino sticks around 2010 will be a record warm year.

[Ratty]

"However, I wouldn't get too focused on cosmic rays or any other solar-related data. "

What if the cosmic rays have something to do with the warming?

[boxman]

Jan 16, 2010 11:44:08 GMT glc said:

I heard from one scientist that the satellites have not detected any change in cosmic radiation.

Not strictly true. He probably means there has been no long term trend in CR. CR count varies over the course of a solar cycle, but the trend has remained flat.

What is a long term trend in your eyes?? The trend is definitely not flat if you look at the trend for the last 5 decades. It has been high for the last few years than ever measured.

[boxman]

Jan 16, 2010 12:36:10 GMT Ratty said:

"However, I wouldn't get too focused on cosmic rays or any other solar-related data. "

What if the cosmic rays have something to do with the warming?

I know one thing at least.. When sun was having a fit back in end of 1800-beginning of 1900 we had some of the highest summer temps recorded, while we also at same time had the lowest and most chilly winters in ages. Maybe the short term effect could be in both end of the extremes.

I think it makes kinda sense if jet streams and such are affected like some people believe.

[william]

The AGU 2009 fall meeting had an interesting presentation on Solar cycle 24.

Consequences of an Unusually Long and Deep Solar Minimum

eventcg.com/clients/agu/fm09/U34A.html

[trbixler]

Jan 16, 2010 16:30:03 GMT william said:

The AGU 2009 fall meeting had an interesting presentation on Solar cycle 24.

Consequences of an Unusually Long and Deep Solar Minimum



eventcg.com/clients/agu/fm09/U34A.html

Thanks for the link. Not quick banter for sure. Interesting not to be quoted but Dalton.

[nautonnier]

Jan 16, 2010 11:44:08 GMT glc said:

I heard from one scientist that the satellites have not detected any change in cosmic radiation.

Not strictly true. He probably means there has been no long term trend in CR. CR count varies over the course of a solar cycle, but the trend has remained flat.

However, I wouldn't get too focused on cosmic rays or any other solar-related data. The world is continuing to warm. A fact that will become evident over the next few months.

Consider the recent UAH satellite record:

September 2009 - near record for Sept
November 2009 - record for November
January 2010 - 90% chance of a record for January

If the El Nino sticks around 2010 will be a record warm year.

From Joe Bastardi European Weather Blog

"This is how you should combat any nonsense that comes out. What should raise the eyebrows at the Hadley center and I am throwing you guys a bone to CONSIDER before you keep yelling about how warm it is. Is that the peak of this nino seems to a) have been reached earlier than normal and b) did not reach the peak of 06-07, when it Jim Hansen who went nuts on hottest ever.....

<snip>

So lets be clear here... I dont believe I KNOW THE FUTURE but I believe no man or no model knows it either. But you have to sit up and take notice as the why the reason you gave for it being warm is actually a reason why others in my field knew it would be cold! The el nino is not like it was in the warm cycle years in the Pacific. In addition you have some interesting problems going on in the atlantic and I pointed that out earlier.. the atlantic tripole was great for blocking"

www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp

[glc]

What is a long term trend in your eyes?? The trend is definitely not flat if you look at the trend for the last 5 decades. It has been high for the last few years than ever measured.

There is no trend over the last 5 decades (up to ~2005) but we have had strong warming over the last 3 decades.

It is true that the CR count has been higher recently but this appears to have had no effect (yet) on tropospheric or surface temperatures.

[glc]

From Joe Bastardi European Weather Blog

I said that if the El Nino sticks around 2010 will be a record warm year. I'm not sure what Joe Bastardi's self congratulatory guff has got to do with that statement.

[trbixler]

From william's link We have just finished with a grand maximum event for 50 or so years not unusual in the greater scheme of things but certainly high for the last 2000 or so years. From Solanki.