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Post by Bob k6tr on Oct 2, 2011 5:59:31 GMT
Leif are you awareof/follow what these guys are doing regarding this project of calculating "Effectivr Sunspot Number" ? www.nwra.com/spawx/ssne24.htmlIf so do you have any comments/observations ?
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Post by Bob k6tr on Oct 2, 2011 5:25:08 GMT
@bob/k6tr > Regarding NOAA and GOES the > heliosphysics part of the mission is secondary ... Yet GOES seems to be the sole arbiter of whether a solar flare occurred or not. I don't understand why there aren't back-ups for this mission. There are other ways to determine if a flare occurred and get an estimate of its intensity. Of course, the Nobeyama radioheliograph has a much bigger 'eclipse' problem than GOES, since it's ground based. It's only up about 8 hrs a day. :-| The USAF is the "sole arbiter" of Solar Information. They have their own network of ground based observatories which were online in the last solar cycle but dropped offline in 2005 when SOHO proved it could do nearly as good. Have you poked around MLSO's (Mauna Loa Solar Observatory) Website to see if anything shows up there ? They were in pretty good position to capture such an event. And speaking of the USAF's monitoring of the sun check this out : the.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/2001/Jun/24/ln/ln10a.html
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Post by Bob k6tr on Sept 29, 2011 14:12:46 GMT
Stefan CME are capable of accelleration after the depart the sun. Both in a linear manner causing an increase in speed but also in a tangential manner resulting in a change of direction.
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Post by Bob k6tr on Sept 27, 2011 0:55:43 GMT
From NASA :
0000 Utc 27-Sept 6 groups 54 spots for a total spot of 114
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Post by Bob k6tr on Sept 26, 2011 20:21:12 GMT
So is the current flux readings gonna blow this current smooth trend of #24 out of the box? We hit 190 recently and still up at 160+. It's all about averages. Right now the Mean Solar Flux for September is 132. And if the numbers drop-off slightly in the next few days we might hit 135. If the numbers crater we will be around 130. If they maintain as they are now or increase we will be at 140 for the month. The previous high monthly reading was 115 back in March. Re sunspot numbers the same holds true. This month's Raw Count is at 108 and will likely finish between 112 and 115. After correction is applied the number will wind up between 75 and 80. Last month it was at 50 and the previous peak was 56 in March. On both accounts it would appear that October should have at least the same number if not higher. How much higher ? Who knows ?
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Post by Bob k6tr on Sept 26, 2011 4:48:51 GMT
Why does it need to be reduced? Are the numbers too high or something? It just means to be converted from 'raw' readings of voltages of the instrument to magnetic field units that we can relate to. Did Bill Livingston comment or make any remarks regarding AR 11302 ?
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Post by Bob k6tr on Sept 25, 2011 15:03:59 GMT
When will be the next time that Bill Livingston scheduled for telescope time ? He just had. I was with him. Give him a few days to reduce the data. There will be plenty of people consumed with anticipation over this one. This ought to be interesting !
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Post by Bob k6tr on Sept 25, 2011 2:07:10 GMT
What would be the base value? Do you avg the measurements through the day? 176/190/169 178sfu avg of those 3 readings No...I take the lowest Regarding today I would even go lower. Yesterday gave us an honest reading og 158. So I would figure the base is more like 160 to 165. Btw is there any real way we can properly measure SFI on days like today with frequent flare activity? No As for the flares were not at the peak of the cycle yet, We're alot closer than most people think It could easily drop down again in a couple months and not pick up again until next spring. True But even if we are set for another pause, and I think that is very likely, the next surge will be that last of this Cycle. And as we have seen surge periods last for 2 to 3 months.
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Post by Bob k6tr on Sept 24, 2011 23:36:40 GMT
Look at at solar flux, it went berserk! 190SFU at Penticton. If this sunspot Continues to put out this activity, combined with the new region coming into view we will most likely the solar flux pass 200. True but those numbers are not anything you can take to the bank. It's the base level that matters. Also it is kind of frightening for the solar flare activity to spend a day with such as high Xray flux overall. It's like the flare does not even have the time to calm down before the next one. You've been doing it for many solar cycle peaks in the past. Even with thie recent uptick in activity Solar activity is still comparatively low with respect to other peaks
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Post by Bob k6tr on Sept 24, 2011 21:06:46 GMT
When will be the next time that Bill Livingston scheduled for telescope time ?
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Post by Bob k6tr on Sept 24, 2011 5:15:19 GMT
@bob/k6tr > Regarding NOAA and GOES the > heliosphysics part of the mission is secondary ... Yet GOES seems to be the sole arbiter of whether a solar flare occurred or not. I don't understand why there aren't back-ups for this mission. There are other ways to determine if a flare occurred and get an estimate of its intensity. Of course, the Nobeyama radioheliograph has a much bigger 'eclipse' problem than GOES, since it's ground based. It's only up about 8 hrs a day. :-| The USAF is the "sole arbiter" of Solar Information. They have their own network of ground based observatories which were online in the last solar cycle but dropped offline in 2005 when SOHO proved it could do nearly as good. Have you poked around MLSO's (Mauna Loa Solar Observatory) Website to see if anything shows up there ? They were in pretty good position to capture such an event.
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Post by Bob k6tr on Sept 24, 2011 1:14:51 GMT
@bob/k6tr > Both GOES and SDO are in Eclipse Season which > happen twice a year around Equinox Periods. Are the NOAA/NASA analysts aware that they have missed some big events during these eclipses? NASA knew before they selected the orbit for SDO that they would miss events but life is trade-offs and these types of decisions is what the guys at NASA get paid the big bucks for. Regarding NOAA and GOES the heliosphysics part of the mission is secondary and only evolved with the GOES K series of spacecraft. GOES 12 was the first such satellite with an X-Ray Imager. I doubt their budget could justify them putting up a dedicated satellite at L 1 with the Ground System costs it would entail.
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Post by Bob k6tr on Sept 23, 2011 12:17:33 GMT
Looks like NOAA missed another* big X-Ray flare last night due to GOES15 outage which coincided with the flare around 0620Z. We know a huge flare happened then because the Nobeyama radioheliograph recorded it, with a peak 17GHz intensity above 0.10, which only occurs on big flares, M and X class. I can also see a couple of distortion overload speckles occuring right at the peak, which is also characteristic of the way Nobeyama renders these huge events. (The really big X flares produce a cross-pattern of speckles) So I'd say this was a very large M-class or perhaps even a small X-class flare. * See Main Discussion, 25-Mar-2011 Both GOES and SDO are in Eclipse Season which happen twice a year around Equinox Periods. Those satellites will loose contact with the sun for 1 hour stradling local midnight at their Ground Station Receiving Sites. We have about 3 more weeks left in this period.
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Post by Bob k6tr on Sept 19, 2011 0:47:15 GMT
19-Sept-2011 the big numbers keep on coming.....................SFI 151...........SN 144
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Post by Bob k6tr on Sept 18, 2011 2:21:01 GMT
Ok Ok The Spot Count dropped off a little today 138 but the SFI stayed above 140 for the 3rd Consecutive Day. That's 4 Consecutive Readings. The previous record was 2 Consecutive Days back in March during the last big surge. Right now we can see the first clear patch on the sun in a couple of weeks but several very active regions are about to rotate over the East Limb of the Sun.
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