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Post by Bob k6tr on Sept 17, 2011 2:51:18 GMT
Kevin I hope you recorded yesterday's record in pencil
The Sunspot Count for 17-Sept is 174.
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Post by Bob k6tr on Sept 15, 2011 7:15:14 GMT
Leif....Did you see that the SEM 304A Photon Count recorded today, 14-Sept, matched the high of Cycle 23 ? No, I didn't, but one cannot conclude much from one day. No doubt But if this trend does hold up it might shed some light on the Blind Spot idea you postulated. When Cycle 23 Peaked the Daily Solar Flux readings were in the 260 - 270 Range and the Daily Sunspot number nearly broke 200. So if the reading is correct the Sunspot is down and the SFI is way down for the same level of UV Radiation. The problem is I'm not entirely sure of the reading. USC keeps changing the scale from a Quasilogrithmic to logrythmic and the historical charts are on a linear scale. Do you have any contact with Leonid Didkovsky ?
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Post by Bob k6tr on Sept 15, 2011 2:05:59 GMT
Leif....Did you see that the SEM 304A Photon Count recorded today, 14-Sept, matched the high of Cycle 23 ?
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Post by Bob k6tr on Sept 13, 2011 3:27:40 GMT
Hello Dr. Svalgaard, Once again thank you for making yourself available for questions. I have been busy for awhile now (seems like for ever) and have only been checking in here from time to time, so I hope my question is not a repeat... if it is, just slap me around and I'll go back to my cave. :-) Anyway, your post made me wonder exactly how tied together are the hemispheres of the sun. We have all been watching and waiting for cycle 24 to really get rolling, and most of the action is in the north. Furthermore, just using my mark one eyeball, the action in the north appears to have migrated closer to the equator then the southern hemisphere. Could the North be cycling faster then the south? How extreme can the differences become? They are often out of sync, see e.g. here: sidc.oma.be/html/wnosuf.htmlFor August SIDC reported the North produced 42.4 spots and the South 8.2 spots. That's a 5 fold disparity. That's a pretty heavy differential.
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Post by Bob k6tr on Sept 4, 2011 18:56:40 GMT
"BREAKING NEWS – CERN Experiment Confirms Cosmic Rays Influence Cloud Seeds" "Personal rivalries aside, the important question is what the new CLOUD paper means for the Svensmark hypothesis. Pick your way through the cautious prose and you’ll find this: In 2008 a BBC Feature Article cited the work of 3 prominent British Physicists, Terry Sloan, Mike Lockwood and Niles Harrison who produced work discreditting Svensmark Hypothesis that GCR fluctuation influences cloud development. news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7327393.stmDoes this research address those criticisms ?
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Post by Bob k6tr on Sept 1, 2011 19:33:13 GMT
SDO's seismic imager is show an area that has the potential to develop into a monster spot. It appears to be 7 to 10 days away from rotating over the East Limb of the Sun. This is only seismic data that is being reported and such areas can fade very quickly This area has been displayed for the last 36 Hours so it is worth keeping an eye.
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Post by Bob k6tr on Sept 1, 2011 1:24:15 GMT
Leif here is something to consider.
NOAA has just issued their Solar Region Summary Report for Sept 1. The Sunspot count is 121. Accord to the Old Formula that I have (not yours) the SFI should be 165. Instead it actually measures 109. That isn't off-kilter it's out of the ballpark.
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Post by Bob k6tr on Sept 1, 2011 1:18:29 GMT
Happy Birthday Kevin
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Post by Bob k6tr on Aug 2, 2011 18:31:26 GMT
Hi Leif Since I've been away I've had a chance to ponder a few items and have come up with some suppositions and some questions about the endeavor Bill Livingston and Matt Penn have embarked on. To me there appears to be enough data from L&P research to ascertain that the variation of the sun's magnetic field intensity is independent from the 10.7 year solar cycle. Is that a safe assumption ? I ask this because from what L&P have reported their data is inverse to the rise phase of Cycle 24 thus far. Second your response to questions on the matter of L&P findings indicate that there would seem to be Cyclic variation of this phenomenon. Something on the order of 50 years if my memory serves me. Do you think that over time research could determine the period of this cycle or come up with a formula that gives at least a pseudo-accurate representation of what is happening ? Could it be possible the period is purely random ? Now delving into to specifics of the future course of the research. It would appear that an extended period of study may well be necessary to determine these factors. With the possible closure of McMath-Pierce a distinct possibility will L&P work be transferred to ATST ? Will Matt Penn continue the work when Bill retires ? Has Mark Giampapa stated anything about what he sees about the future of the study ? Sorry to load you down. Maybe I ought to post more often. BTW congratulations on the grant for the historical study you proposed. It looks like quite a few people will be banging around libraries thumbing through tombs. Bob 3) We have submitted a paper to Science on this. If accepted it will go a long way to enable us to continue. Bill L is already retired. Science = NSF ?
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Post by Bob k6tr on Aug 1, 2011 16:01:56 GMT
WOW!! The July 31 sunspot number is 128!!! What's even more interesting is the Sunspot count is exceeding the SFI Number. This is happening quite frequently during Cycle 24 and in the process rendering conventional formulas that correlate Sunspot Count to SFI useless. In previous cycles this phenomenon would happen a half dozen times. But the frequency of these events during this cycle would seem to indicate that something inside the sun is indeed changing.
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Post by Bob k6tr on Jul 28, 2011 17:19:34 GMT
Hi Leif
Since I've been away I've had a chance to ponder a few items and have come up with some suppositions and some questions about the endeavor Bill Livingston and Matt Penn have embarked on.
To me there appears to be enough data from L&P research to ascertain that the variation of the sun's magnetic field intensity is independent from the 10.7 year solar cycle. Is that a safe assumption ? I ask this because from what L&P have reported their data is inverse to the rise phase of Cycle 24 thus far.
Second your response to questions on the matter of L&P findings indicate that there would seem to be Cyclic variation of this phenomenon. Something on the order of 50 years if my memory serves me. Do you think that over time research could determine the period of this cycle or come up with a formula that gives at least a pseudo-accurate representation of what is happening ? Could it be possible the period is purely random ?
Now delving into to specifics of the future course of the research. It would appear that an extended period of study may well be necessary to determine these factors. With the possible closure of McMath-Pierce a distinct possibility will L&P work be transferred to ATST ? Will Matt Penn continue the work when Bill retires ? Has Mark Giampapa stated anything about what he sees about the future of the study ?
Sorry to load you down. Maybe I ought to post more often.
BTW congratulations on the grant for the historical study you proposed. It looks like quite a few people will be banging around libraries thumbing through tombs.
Bob
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Post by Bob k6tr on Jul 5, 2011 23:31:11 GMT
The process by which the Solar Polar Fields reverse showed a precipitous change last September when the North Polar Field diminished and emerged as a South Polar Field. That is clearly shown here : www.leif.org/research/WSO-Polar-Fields-since-2003.pngThe process is not a smooth one and that field has since swung back North although right now it is rather weak. Nonetheless the overall trends from the WSO Data you reference show the Polar Fields will reverse sometime in the 4th Quarter of 2011 or the 1st Quarter of 2012.
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Post by Bob k6tr on Jul 3, 2011 12:51:40 GMT
Observation today with CORONADO PST D.S SM 40mm Ha under medium-good seeing. The sun lost power the last days. Only three region on solar surface. The stronger remain the 11243. The big filament northwest region 11242 remain strong. One big area with prominence around the solar limb. www.solar-007.eu/Hi Theo Thanks for the updates. They are appreciated. Bob
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Post by Bob k6tr on Jul 1, 2011 18:40:47 GMT
I read on Anthony Watts' blog last May that the magnetic field of the sun seemed to be reversing and that in the past such reversals meant that solar max had been reached for that solar cycle. If so wouldn't that mean that SC 24 is going to be both a short and weak cycle? Can anyone elaborate on this for me? What would it mean if true and such? Thanks A little older and still confused. See page 36 the bottom 4 Posts on the Livingston & Penn Thread. solarcycle24com.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=855&page=36
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Post by Bob k6tr on Jun 18, 2011 2:52:08 GMT
Leif in all of the animated diagrams that I have seen put out by NASA I always see very strong magnetic field lines extending from the poles at Solar Minimum. As the cycle progresses those field lines fold downward towards the equator.
What I notice is as the lines progress towards the equator there intensity drops fairly rapidly and diminsh almost completely by time they are 45 degrees off the equator. Is this accurate ? And if so is their some sort of internal shielding mechanism in the sun near the equator ?
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