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Post by slh1234 on Jan 2, 2010 18:49:57 GMT
In northern Sweden there is still a slow rise of land responding to the press down caused by the thick ice layer from the last glacial period. In south Sweden the change, if any, seems to be the other way round. It is for sure difficult to judge whether a coast line change is caused by rising sea level or or land sinking or rising. Could be something to keep in mind when the alarmists talk about inundation of the Maldives etc. The rise and fall of land masses is well-known and taken into account when calculating the very real sea level rise. Did you think otherwise?? You're kidding, right?
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Post by slh1234 on Jan 2, 2010 5:15:09 GMT
I can't get to the link you posted, but I have a question on this. The Mauna Loa data (which I have questioned in the past due to it's proximity to two active volcanoes), seems to indicate that atmostpheric CO2 levels have increased at least since 1959. How can the divergence between this and also the Barrows Alaska data be explained in the claim that CO2 has not increased in the last 150 years.
If you an post excerpts from the link that provide the explanation for that, I would appreciate that.
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Post by slh1234 on Jan 2, 2010 4:50:17 GMT
Not sure that the temp is the problem. On the way back from Desert Hot Springs I did my sort of annual survey and around 10% of the windmills were turning. Temp was around 70 degrees F. Very nice indeed. Coincidentally, I was commenting this last weekend as we drove 580 back to the Bay Area that the windmills there were all sitting still. I couldn't find any of them moving. But honestly, that is not all together unusual when I travel through there ... I'm never sure if it is due to wind conditions, or if they have just turned the blades so that the windmills will not turn.
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Post by slh1234 on Dec 29, 2009 17:49:11 GMT
I can say that this winter has produced some EXCELLENT ski snow in South Lake Tahoe. My experience with Nevada doesn't go back all that far, but the snow between Reno and Carson City is much heavier this year than in recent years ... it made for a beautiful drive from Reno up to Lake Tahoe the last week, and it snowed in Reno again last night ... which has me concerned about roads getting back home. On my flight from San Francisco to Colorado Springs two weeks ago, I was able to observe that all the way across the great basin area looks to be blanketed in snow. In the last few years (since I've been flying over that area between the Sierras and the Rockes), this is the first time I have seen the whole area white, and I have travelled across the great basin during December, January, and February pretty frequently. So there is some beautiful weather right now ... I'm glad I still have to travel to visit the snow instead of having it outside my door, though .
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Post by slh1234 on Dec 8, 2009 3:29:54 GMT
Now that we know that the "trick" that Steve McIntyre has been banging on about for donkey's years on his blog turns out to have been acknowledged in an email, why does that make a difference. Noone is making multibillion dollar decisions on whether or not there is evidence that the MWP doesn't exist. There are people making multibillion dollar decisions on the price of oil in a few years' time. That's *far* less certain and far more important. Not even related to what I was talking about.
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Post by slh1234 on Dec 7, 2009 16:06:46 GMT
Unlike what you've been displaying, I'm trying to be even. However; you response to the second is most decidely NOT true. Even with only one author, and even with relatively small blocks of code, version control is very important. Changes will be made, and that change can change the outcome of the code. Without version control, you have no way later of going back and establishing which version produced which outcome. That may not be an issue with a high school programming project where you can turn the program in and forget it, but this is an ongoing project, and one part of a claim on which politicians want to make multi-billion dollar decisions, and there is this amateurish of a handling of the code. There is no justification for this with a project this important, wouldn't you agree? And if the handling of the code is this amateurish, why should we not ask questions about the data as well? It's also plausible that the handling of the data is just as amateurish. Lost raw data and amateurish coding leads to a lot of questions when asking someone to make multi-billion dollar decisions based on your work, wouldn't you agree? You can ask questions all you want. But questions are not proof of fraud are they? Looks to me that they have a slapdash manual system of version control. They could do a lot better, but I think this pales into comparison with some of the fraud accusations being made. Socold, calm down a bit, and tell me where I have accused anyone of fraud. What I HAVE said is that it is amateurish, and sloppy. As such, it is NOT something we need to be basing multi-billion dollar decisions on. If it is legit, then do it right, and reproduce the results openly, end to end. If that can't be done, then the results cannot be trusted. Let's let the probe find whether or not there has been fraud. But in the meantime, we seem to have no reason to trust the results. Do you understand the difference, now?
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Post by slh1234 on Dec 6, 2009 23:36:19 GMT
trblixer actually gives a good intro to what is wrong on page 20 of this thread. We really don't know what version of the code was used to produce any specific output from that code. Was that commented portion of code used at that time? or not? These are all great reasons to not alledge fraud. It's also very possible that it was authored by one person, very possible that they were very familiar with what they had written given it is fairly short, and therefore very possible that version control was unnecessary. And the reason we don't know much is because the hacker dumped source code, not context. Even with version control we couldn't prove it. "version control" as you are using it is a complete red herring. But thanks for establishing that you have no proof or evidence of fraud. Unlike what you've been displaying, I'm trying to be even. However; you response to the second is most decidely NOT true. Even with only one author, and even with relatively small blocks of code, version control is very important. Changes will be made, and that change can change the outcome of the code. Without version control, you have no way later of going back and establishing which version produced which outcome. That may not be an issue with a high school programming project where you can turn the program in and forget it, but this is an ongoing project, and one part of a claim on which politicians want to make multi-billion dollar decisions, and there is this amateurish of a handling of the code. There is no justification for this with a project this important, wouldn't you agree? And if the handling of the code is this amateurish, why should we not ask questions about the data as well? It's also plausible that the handling of the data is just as amateurish. Lost raw data and amateurish coding leads to a lot of questions when asking someone to make multi-billion dollar decisions based on your work, wouldn't you agree?
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Post by slh1234 on Dec 6, 2009 22:42:28 GMT
No, you're a sheep whose bleating becomes old after a while. Some other warming advocates here actually have thoughtful input. In your case, it's the same chant repeated over and over and over, then going out and finding the occasional blog that agrees with you, posting that, and claiming that as "support" for your bleating. Please name these "other warming advocates" you refer to. And what am I doing that everyone else isn't doing on this thread? Seriously, get a grip. Everyone is just posting blog posts and news articles yet when I start doing it you take issue? I used that term to conveniently distinguish those who hold a position AGW from those skeptical about AGW. Specifically, I was comparing your posts with those of Steve (with whom I usually disagree, and with whom I have had a few brief exchanges) , and glc (with whom I don't recall having any exchanges in the past, but I know his/her position). Go back through the first 30 pages of this thread and compare your posts with thiers. (Granted, you have more posts than anyone else in those pages). The posts give a very different approach to a possible issue with the position you have supported. IMO, I see real thought from them, whereas I saw an approach from you that you were setting out to prove nothing was amiss from the beginning. I still see that. I also find some things very politically troubling about positions you took to try to justify what was done such as this one: And often you seem to miss the most obvious things in defending your position. For example, in your defense of the code being commented, yes, what you say is true, but something huge is missed. trblixer actually gives a good intro to what is wrong on page 20 of this thread. We really don't know what version of the code was used to produce any specific output from that code. Was that commented portion of code used at that time? or not? Without decent version control, not only do we not know, but it is very possible the authors themselves don't know. Of course, that won't stop the bloggers you're posting to "prove" that it isn't a smoking gun. Without version control, neither you, nor I could prove that the array in that code is, or is not proof that the data was altered in that section of code. Reading your posts through the first 20 - 30 pages of this thread, it's really funny to see you tell someone else to "get a grip."
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Post by slh1234 on Dec 6, 2009 16:45:41 GMT
Did ANYBODY on this site not expect you to go out and find a blog post to say what you wanted it to? I am just educating you. Here I go again... I know skeptics have a hard time finding the raw data or remembering that it is available online, so realclimate helpfully links to a lot of it. www.realclimate.org/index.php/data-sources/No, you're a sheep whose bleating becomes old after a while. Some other warming advocates here actually have thoughtful input. In your case, it's the same chant repeated over and over and over, then going out and finding the occasional blog that agrees with you, posting that, and claiming that as "support" for your bleating.
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Post by slh1234 on Dec 6, 2009 7:41:36 GMT
Did ANYBODY on this site not expect you to go out and find a blog post to say what you wanted it to?
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Post by slh1234 on Dec 2, 2009 2:41:15 GMT
Of course your views are valid, just as much as mine. It's just that your perception is based on your experiences, values etc. Mine are probably a bit different. It's just what we (I lived in Florida with my parents and brothers, and in OK one time with five and 2 times with one other Dutch student), being from the Netherlands, noticed when we were in the US. We also noticed other things that we thought were weird, just because they were different from what we were used to. Even stranger was the fact that when we came back, we kept on comparing the Netherlands with the US, and had to get adjusted to living there again. In my perception, now also based on the time I spent in the US, some things in the Netherlands were weird. Everything seemed small and crowded, and the people less helpful and friendly at first contact. Back to the US and trash, it's not bad, but it can be improved (like, uhh, everywhere...). We consider the US as a country where nationalism is quite strong, but I think the Dutch have a strange habit of denying our own nationalism. We never say we are proud of the Netherlands, and will criticize it very much, but actually we love it very much in a strange way. If you don't get it, don't worry, it's just weird. We are however very much pro-USA, only during the Bush administration this was temporarily a bit less. I also like the US very much (it has its pros and cons, just like our country and most other countries), so I don't think my views are based very much on nationalism. That's fine. I just wanted to know who I'm talking to . I know what you mean about the reverse culture shock. I went through that myself when I went back to the US after four and a half years of living in Korea. After that, regardless of where I live, I sometimes get nostalgic about something in the other places I've lived. Peace.
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Post by slh1234 on Nov 27, 2009 21:22:38 GMT
Perception is very much based on what you are used to... I see the US differently than you can as a US citicizen. But please don't get me wrong, I really love OK (and much of the US), so much that I have seriously considered living there (it would be easier for me to get a nice job too). The Dutch society and the Netherlands also have its up and downsides. It is very busy, and although we drive much smaller and more economical cars, the air still tends to be a bit less fresh than in the US. I'm also familiar with OK's history, but thanks . Go Sooners! AJ Yes, I am a Sooner Fan (and a Sooner) But I have to ask ... if you see the US differently than I can as a citizen, then does it all come back to nationalism? Is it possible that my views are also valid? (I ask this because of an attitude I often run into where anything "american" is seen as wrong, or at least flawed. I'd like to know what your take is on it when we run into differences of opinions that you see as based on nationalism.)
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Post by slh1234 on Nov 26, 2009 16:35:32 GMT
aj, I think once again you are a little off balance in your perception of the other side of the political spectrum. If I'm right, then what you are experiencing about them is much the same that they are experiencing about your side. The political pendulum swings back and forth. It's interesting that it never really stops in the middle. One side goes too far and that is exaggerated by the other side's perceptions and the reaction gains momentum until it swings too far the other direction. I think the pendulum is going to swing the other direction on the environmental movement. I don't think my opinion in it is relevant, really ... I don't have any control over it.
Back to the trash ... again, I think your perception is exaggerated. I don't know much about Florida - I've only been there twice in my life. I grew up in Oklahoma, and have driven I-40 all the way through Arizona several times.
Something I think you can see in either place is abandoned homesites. There are not that many, but there are a few you can see from the road. In Northeastern Oklahoma, these sites tend to decay and get destroyed by the environment if you will, in short order. In Arizona, things don't decay or get overgrown so quickly, so they probably stand for much longer.
The explanation for this is not quite what I think you are driving at. Oklahoma is two Choctaw words that mean "Land of the Red People." Like the name implies, Oklahoma was a place for the Indian Tribes to be removed to beginning with the Cherokees and the Trail of Tears in 1838. White men did not really begin settling in Oklahoma until the 1880s. Most of the people my age who grew up in Oklahoma are part Native American (I'm 1/4 Cherokee. My Adopted son is 1/2 Shoshone ... ).
The white people who settled in different parts of Oklahoma were usually farmers, or in the cities, it was the oil men. The Dutch, Germans, and several other ethnic groups made large farming communities in NE Oklahoma. When I was young, this area was largely ranches, dairies, and wheat fields. But the family farm can't compete anymore (and that is good for food prices). So as the kids grew up and moved away, often these places were left, or sold. The ones that were sold were often made into rural housing areas, but curiously, the original house was often not torn down - it was left to overgrow until it fell - I don't know why that was.
Also, there were people who came in and settled, but died without heirs. Such a place existed behind our family's farm. By the time I left home, it was so re-naturalized that the only thing you could find there was the mortarless rock fence, and that only if you knew what you were looking for/at.
Arizona is another state that was mostly Native American with a few hearty white folks trying to settle there. I don't know Arizona's history as well as Oklahoma's, but I suspect that many of those ghost towns or abandoned homes you can see there were Native Americans, or reclusive white people who either left no heirs, or whose heirs didn't want that reclusive lifestyle, so there are a few abandoned towns or homesites along the way. I see that, yes, but certainly not trashing the way you described. Unlike Oklahoma, it doesn't seem that these places are sold and housing built there (I can understand why ... I wouldn't want to live in the desert like that, but others may love it).
Even in the Central valley of California, I saw some abandoned houses when I lived there in the 80's. But in any of those places, I have to say I don't see the trashing the way you describe.
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Post by slh1234 on Nov 25, 2009 19:47:26 GMT
It's good to hear you all care for the environment. I've been many times in the US and I was really shocked by the carelessness of many people there. Complete furniture sets, refrigerators, cars etc could be found every 100 m in (non protected) nature areas (together with the commonly found ammo and shooting holes). All along the highway it was full of litter. People throwing bags, cans and litter out of their cars while driving. It's crazy! You won't find that as much here in NL, because rules are strict and there is not much space to litter anymore. People seemed to care about the environment, but that has started to change in recent years. Now, because of "climategate" many people (millions) here are agressively demanding a stop on ALL environmental protection regulations and all research which is somehow related to it (~all natural sciences). They say it has all been a lie (that man influences/pollutes the environment), that the government is using these lies for taxes, and people are calling for a boycot on all green/sustainable energy, and actually personally changing back to oil/coal based energy, stopping with the separation of trash (glass/paper/compost etc), and choosing cars which are very much gas inefficient. I see this happening in more countries. I use to call this large group the anti-environmental group (popular rightwing politics) and they are "skeptic" about everything concerning the environment and even more so of course about any ("liberal") politics associated with it. They are "skeptical" about all research (they believe it is only elitist lies), and want to stop "wasting" money on it. I really have to ask: Where exactly did you visit? Not only do I live in the US, I travel through quite a bit of it for work (maybe I'm trashing the environment by travelling?), and have also lived outside the US and travelled outside the US for work ... the US that I see is one of the most beautiful, and well preserved countries I have ever visited. I may be able to find one or two spots where there are refrigerators or something like that, but mostly in very poor areas, and even there it is very rare by my experience. The statement you are making about the trashing of the US seems to me to fit much better with a political statement, and one that all too often goes unchallenged because it fits nicely with the political leaning of the person hearing it. Following it up with "You won't find that so much here ... " seems to make it more of a nationalistic political statement. Of course, if that's what you hear or say in your domicile, then I wouldn't expect anyone to challenge it. Let me give you a tiny sample of some of the non-protected areas that I see commonly. I challenge you to find full furniture sets, refrigerators, cars, or disposed bags of garbage in these areas. Of course, this is only a tiny sample of places I regularly go: public.blu.livefilestore.com/y1pB1aombO1uFTRtHxH9Oy-7Wh9kmzTDzhsXpZyCP5spunHDjkGT6yBMCgLyiQr-W5TC0pcR3ibmhbuJIwAB4UaAg/DSC01653.jpgpublic.blu.livefilestore.com/y1pH4zvZzITpBL2TPi_OYO0wnG57NUhtRM2HaL7Ipv1yFcZCXy-6Oo_fyY-FN8q5PYBzCIVPzJs0BYnKEnnUuzcgA/DSC01162.jpgpublic.blu.livefilestore.com/y1pzNQtebwaG7QoPlGWkt_JHw0ot6TYUqeTJzZLVkrDKD4SLF00AHngGYS9i06w8lumGlb8iPzLlruItDwMTGrI6Q/DSC01167.jpgpublic.blu.livefilestore.com/y1pPHB7HDF53imMnq4AP430BG2oBmTyMxRMC3Q_82tMU1_CLNS6dyQygdVU2iYwYJ13qounurU00JgSShip-2lleQ/DSC01166.jpgpublic.blu.livefilestore.com/y1ps1ON3mcgm_OvtMVTEM-q_EefDqeboqnnB3K0ft6gBjm2xokvpeMJFbtBw8pguGnusvORkjWISOb9NATcJlaFBw/SNC00115.jpgpublic.blu.livefilestore.com/y1pWeRMNReljjawCT9K0yA9MlumGRUKcun2MLSrNJlSyh2AMB6vo0u5K4ua5CYBGTUuW9TOJVB_d05sr98RPC8YKQ/DSC01542.jpgpublic.blu.livefilestore.com/y1pF-bK2V0LcurUPf6XiHnKXZvD7Vx3LiEmNKcUsJ299RFXzc2els2EEVYPstHbLGyWkLy9HfJ5Gi5EeBBIByQvMg/DSC01552.jpgpublic.blu.livefilestore.com/y1pESNi9LHdhl3mmQ0OmtpWBDuFgXW0fgkfKOWxxwC-_xLAXw3OJRCkpVexuJjrfAiylX3EAMNhJbMGgl_Re6MfBA/DSC01613.jpgpublic.blu.livefilestore.com/y1p6346qf0nTBV9nv4zziWq_fwCvOLLoiw9MDqB2oPKqdHHi-XW-FrVWeGb4wkMS9rfzWqmMaV3THu7W1Y6oGCjhw/DSC01634.jpgpublic.blu.livefilestore.com/y1pUt8B9Hxa_aJ7xC9VnOJXWKUqgXJaJhjHBMO-FPSUIIWVcQw9sdZiETSax4wo7MKRWKe4y9gC3xE4NLVpOXyNig/DSC01173.jpgc4.ac-images.myspacecdn.com/images02/17/l_abd9df38f9d54c79982a13b98f29241f.jpg (Power lines, yes ... it is a hydro-electric plant. But trash?) c4.ac-images.myspacecdn.com/images02/59/l_e9e840c0768a47198abe2534dcc055cb.jpgc2.ac-images.myspacecdn.com/images02/9/l_f717ba828c834798806795f09c35ed71.jpg (They're noisy, but not in a protected area ... but I love seeing them, and the other animals like sea Otters which still occupy this area among people, but still a "nature area") c1.ac-images.myspacecdn.com/images02/48/l_2c706b9429064c4d90e8b8aeac9934e0.jpg (the dirtiest thing you'll find here is pot smoke, and that includes the area around the beaches as well) c1.ac-images.myspacecdn.com/images02/58/l_357c1c09413c48a29bb3315e09da4acc.jpg (And this is even one of the poorer areas ... still ... no trash. Not here, and not in the nature areas that surround it.) c1.ac-images.myspacecdn.com/images02/34/l_44db79693a264cd4ac1c1cfec877d028.jpgc3.ac-images.myspacecdn.com/images02/79/l_950ea780a8064c4ca90b9bdca4c8900e.jpg (See any trash along this hiway? Funny, neither did I. It's not protected, but I'd say it's a pretty natural stretch of road, wouldn't you?) c2.ac-images.myspacecdn.com/images02/90/l_77ccaf10e88b4254837757b48db58b3d.jpg (No, it's not protected, and it's not very deep. It's just a turnout on the side of the highway. It would be the perfect place to dump a refrigerator, but I didn't see any there, and this area IS poor ... and I would call this a nature area.) z6l4gg.blu.livefilestore.com/y1pHyuR-9vw7HPU7zinWYYQOg9TWsSryHJDyHRbs97UYEDQ6spDZFyGy9dKhYD4Uu0fH2GDaNlZoFC04_zX7mWiuArKCRzY88QF/DSC01078.jpg (Typical residential neighborhood for this area ... hmm ... don't see any trash ... of course, you might say it's not a "nature area.") z6l4gg.blu.livefilestore.com/y1pqG8Jj8p8eZz-a0bd4xGPyt8ZOAE55M8pU4MNMHubMoQEeMobqP_tzoT-ZagRwGahyKRfIJmTwIvXHA2FyKpkFyah_YiOZYJe/DSC01086.jpg (hmm ... maybe you can pick something out on this one because there is some construction going on on the other side of that fence ... doesn't look too bad for a construction site, though. does it?) z6l4gg.blu.livefilestore.com/y1pM62oXVrI_asSaKzAOQND64WZfzx9lbGsXf9n49BIShh_lV0fs48Eq3TRiz6pp_U0CgU6KAFtwsH4htvL1smiwZpK7fY9PGWi/DSC01089.jpg (no, it's not a park. This is all residential, just a natural area of the residential neighborhood - something not all that uncommon in this area.) z6l4gg.blu.livefilestore.com/y1pTg3mT9SywDRFeRj1tl6BqMrHr7HZKS-mcXnC71b0ofoo-yNpafHA2W5grWkggGEk9Hw4XRm-fZlAolHxZVPWdSddVh9S6Baw/DSC01092.jpg (Okay, not a nature area, really, just residential) I think my point is pretty well shown, though, don't you? I'll admit, those photos are all from Colorodo westward. But I grew up east of Colorado, and I have photos from that area as well that I can share. Do you think I need to do that to show that Americans aren't just throwing our full furniture sets, refrigerators, and bags of trash wherever is convenient? (I really wish you had given me an excuse to post pictures of the "protected nature areas" that I visit. Yosemite, Yellowstone, Sierra National forest, Crater Lake, mendenhall Glacier, Glacier bay, Olympic National Park, Bandelier National Monument ... WOW!)
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Post by slh1234 on Nov 25, 2009 4:22:59 GMT
I'm skeptical of almost everything when i can see a political motive behind it. I am definitely skeptical of AGW.
I grew up on a farm. I won't go through the full story of how I got from there to here, but while growing up, we definitely learned to take care of what we had, but we also learned to use it for our needs. I'm sure some of my current neighbors think farmers are trashing the environment by cultivating, but I bet they don't compain about their bellies being full.
I live in the city now, but I HAVE to get out of the city sometimes to keep my sanity. I love the natural beauty, and don't "trash" it - at least not so far as I think about it. I taught my kids the same. I love fishing in the bay or the ocean, camping in the mountains, or just hiking, and we can do that without trashing our environment.
I think this is the part you are asking about: I really love innovation. I'm all for alternative energy sources, and put my energy behind development of the same when it makes sense. But it has to be realistic. For example: Are those windmills on the hills in California really giving us a return on our investment? From what I understand, the answer is "no." So let's be realistic ... if they are, and we just need a better grid, then let's turn our innovation toward that, but if they are not, then let's turn our energy to a better energy source (I'm still dissatisfied with the discussion on this ... I'd like to know a little more). Same thing for the idea of the turbines in the San Francisco bay.
Our night time temperatures here this time of year are just about 50 degrees fahrenheit, so we still have not turned on the heat this fall at our house. I can put on a sweater, or another blanket at night (or just stay close to my wife - that's not at all unpleasant.) But where I grew up, you NEED a heater at night this time of year. So it's what makes sense. I guess by not using the heater, I'm being green conscious (doubly so since green is the color of our money).
So that's probably the most ambiguous answer yet. I don't think I trash the environment. I am all for new energy sources, but let's develop them instead of pretending they already exist. And I'm conscientious about my surroundings ... all the while wishing a few of my environmentalist neighbors would clean it up when their dogs shit on our walkways ... THEY are trashing MY environment.
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