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Post by Andrew on Aug 25, 2014 21:09:23 GMT
northwestpassage2014.blogspot.fi/2014/08/mv-bremen-transits-bellot-strait-to.htmlSo the latest from doug Pohl is that Mango, MV Breven, Novara, Artic Tern, the Maud Tug and anybody else able to join them in time are to get icebreaker escort to Cambridge Bay. Catryn up North has given up. Hard to believe the two sailing boats Eastbound on the southern side of the ice will try to come thru. Altan Girl has already been rescued once by the US coast guard near Barrow and the Empiricus crew have flight bookings some time after September 17th, where earlier they were talking about shortening their trip to get to Greenland by the 17th.
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Post by Andrew on Aug 23, 2014 16:55:20 GMT
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Post by Andrew on Aug 23, 2014 15:26:05 GMT
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Post by Andrew on Aug 23, 2014 14:43:10 GMT
Seems we have a red alert and a minor eruption has started after the recent continuation of the 'huge' 'unbelievably large' intrusion activity where this morning that continued with a 5km long deviation to the North at the end of the 25km long already active intrusion.
"It is believed that a small subglacial lava-eruption has begun under the Dyngjujökull glacier. The aviation color code for the Bárðarbunga volcano has been changed from orange to red"
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Post by Andrew on Aug 21, 2014 11:38:46 GMT
Was watching TV and the show was talking about the Varna culture being dispalced in 4200 because of massive global warming and rising sea levels. Wiki says: "The discontinuity of the Varna, Karanovo, Vin?a and Lengyel cultures in their main territories and the large scale population shifts to the north and northwest are indirect evidence of a catastrophe of such proportions that cannot be explained by possible climatic change, land exhaustion, or epidemics (for which there is no evidence in the second half of the 5th millennium B.C.). " Just curious the TV show said there was evidence of climiate change and rising sea levels. Wiki says according to M. Gimbutas (1991) "cannot be explained" Wiki climate pages are policed by a gang of thugs who prevent other editors from making changes that do not further the greens agenda. Chief thug is William Connelly who is associated with British Antarctic Survey.
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Post by Andrew on Aug 21, 2014 7:25:15 GMT
empiricusembarks.wordpress.com/author/empiricusembarks/Empiricus is in Gjoa with Altan Girl. Manquier aka Mango is about 60 miles from bellot strait, at N71.37 W96.50 which is slightly south of west of Bellot Strait on the Far West side of the Franklin Strait. Looking at todays CIS chart, Mango can either exit today thru Bellot strait or still find an unobstructed route North to Resolute. www.ec.gc.ca/glaces-ice/default.asp?lang=En&n=542306E5-1And in breaking news "the Maud Returns home" project tugboat that is towing a boat recovery platform for Maud is now just heading south from Lancaster sound towards bellot strait. www.maudreturnshome.no/project/ Update: Mango is about 70-80 miles North West of Bellot Strait on the far West side of Franklin Strait, and has been further north mid channel but is now coming back south and to the west due to the impassable ice shown on Aug 23 and 24 ice chart Novara is at Fort Ross Bellot Strait, according to Doug Pohl The Maud tug is half way down Prince Regent inlet Empiricus is moving very slowly north and very likely will turn back in a few days before getting into serious ice conditions because the crew have other committments where the current plan is to be near an airport by September 15th. Catryn is at the western entrance of Prince regent inlet on the way to Bellot Strait and several other boats are in that area Artic Tern (Randall Reeves) is nearing Bellot Strait and has Delorme satellite which enables almost real time monitoring of their position. Empiricus has the same system. Arctic Tern has for now turned back because of 7/10ths and is waiting further North share.delorme.com/randallreeves#share.delorme.com/empiricusembarks#
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Post by Andrew on Aug 20, 2014 19:20:37 GMT
The only Canadian icebreaker around seems to be Terry Fox and it is not 'helicopter capable' which must be an interesting thought when you are 'stuck' in the middle of the NWP like Mango is currently. Mango overwintered in the Arctic frozen in at Argo Bay west of Tuk but thats different to being in an open sea potentially jammed between very large floes which CIS reports as being 500M to 2000M in diameter.
Edit. 8 hours later and Mango is much further North on the western side of Franklin strait at N71.36 W97.3 and has managed a steady 6kts for the last 3 hours.
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Post by Andrew on Aug 20, 2014 17:19:10 GMT
The ice has broken up quite a bit and could be passable in a few days............. iceweb1.cis.ec.gc.ca/Prod20/page3.xhtmlMango is on the far left side of Franklin strait at 71.12N W98 which is around the edge of K and B www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=OS8154Mango is however currently significantly backtracking and has come back south about 20 miles and evidently has not found a way thru. According to Catryns blog, no ship including the icebreakers has passed thru the NWP so far. Link failed The link seems to show different pages or not work. Best find the page from CIS Eastern arctic page Prince Regent Boothia 20th of August
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Post by Andrew on Aug 20, 2014 16:54:29 GMT
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Post by Andrew on Aug 20, 2014 6:02:51 GMT
My guess is the ice is going to dip down quite a bit before we get a refreeze and the refreeze will not be particularly early, partly I am being influenced by the fact it was so bloody hot here in Finland most of this summer, other than an unusually cold June. I was also back in New Zealand last year when there was an unusually hot and dry summer. At this point in time i do not see anything to upset recent trends even though rising sea ice in Antarctica is standing out very very strongly, as is almost no change in global sea ice since around 1979. I'm actually a bit relieved to hear someone report a warmer than average summer/year. My anecdotes have all been either from original home (Oklahoma), last few places I've lived (Shanghai, Washington State, California), and California seemed to be the one place where it was warm. In the area where I currently am, we had snow on the beach this last winter in Busan - not unprecedented, but certainly not something that happens every year. Tokyo had a 120 year record snowstorm. The summer has never really gotten going in Korea. It's had a few warm days, but the summer rainy season didn't really produce as much rain as people thought it should, then right as it should have been winding down, it has started really raining. We're winding down August now, it's overcast and raining yet again this morning, with high temps supposed to be in the mid 20s. The only time I've turned on the A/C was when the typhoons came through (and that was because we couldn't keep the windows open because of high winds. My daughter in California has told me how the early part of the summer was hot there, but I looked at her forecast today, and they're not hot today, either (I will withhold the exact location if you don't mind). Shanghai was HOT last summer. But looking at their forecast today, they don't have a day forecast over 28 degrees. If I read the charts right, that puts their high temperatures about 8 degrees C below the normal highs this time of year. I know I just use my observations as I get around, and I know that can give a distorted view, but I've been very skeptical when people object to people in the US's observations as "That's just the US. We're talking about global" because despite being from the US, I don't think I have a true US-centric view, and where I have been, I have not observed a hot summer. But still, I keep hearing about how hot the summer is supposed to be compared with normal. I'm glad to hear that it is true for at least one place. For the last week it has got much colder, possibly we might have a heater on by the end of the week, but i imagine it will be warmer again in a week or so. We have had persistant warmer summers here and persistant milder winters for decades. Since I came here about 2006 I have not experienced a cold wet summer. However we have had had a very unusually cold set of winters since I came here and since 2009 we are getting large amounts of snow with the 1960's Helsinki records more or less broken about two/three years ago. Even one winter where it was plus degrees almost into February we still had a massive amount of snow once it got colder. Generally speaking the weather here is highly influenced by the Gulfstream. North Dakota for example gets much much colder even though it is much much further south, so I dont see how Finnish temperatures are only something happening in isolation to the rest of the hemisphere.
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Post by Andrew on Aug 19, 2014 7:02:17 GMT
Ratty: The total low ice shouldn't be in as of yet, but it may just stay in the near range until the actual freeze up starts. One thing for sure, it is NOT going to be a low ice year in the Arctic. My guess is the ice is going to dip down quite a bit before we get a refreeze and the refreeze will not be particularly early, partly I am being influenced by the fact it was so bloody hot here in Finland most of this summer, other than an unusually cold June. I was also back in New Zealand last year when there was an unusually hot and dry summer. At this point in time i do not see anything to upset recent trends even though rising sea ice in Antarctica is standing out very very strongly, as is almost no change in global sea ice since around 1979. By the way have you seen this yet? en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/nr/2938Mango are now almost in Franklin strait just 60nm from bellot strait. Novara are heading for Arctic Bay
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Post by Andrew on Aug 18, 2014 22:06:01 GMT
Surprisingly Mango is making good progress towards Bellot strait and could be there in a few days time at the current rate lemanguier.typepad.fr/Edit: They could be at Bellot strait by the time I wake up and it is already late here.......
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Post by Andrew on Aug 18, 2014 19:11:46 GMT
There is no such place as Europe when it comes to ATC requirements, and no such thing as one single controlled airspace type. Prearranged flight plans just give you a far better chance of entering controlled airspace, where clearance is not automatic upon request. Yes for sure big brother wants to watch you but it depends upon where you are, what type of controlled airspace you are in, what your aircraft is fitted with, what is working, the mood of the controller and so forth. If you want to be pedantic Andrew (as if) - the region is the countries within the European Civil Aviation Conference ECAC that mainly but not all are contributers to the pan national body called EUROCONTROL plus a few hangers on. EUROCONTROL is an advisory body so all its recommendations are put into law by either the transport ministers of the ECAC states or by the European Commission (or both). I can assure you - from long experience - that the cooperation between states in air traffic management is more than you would suspect. If you do not flight plan then you will not be allowed into controlled airspace with the possible exception being military aircraft following "operational air traffic" rules but then they have been cleared into the airspace by military control authorities. The ECAC states all subscribe to something called the Originating Region Code Allocation Method (ORCAM) where once an identity code is allocated to an aircraft it will retain it as far as possible for its entire flight within the ECAC airspace. The entire airspace is now split into cooperating Functional Airspace Blocks that comprise several countries, with harmonized rules, routes and procedures. It is not the patchwork quilt you seem to think it is. You are muddling things up. This conversation is not about flight planning to get clearance but rather instrument requirements needed to get clearance so that we can determine if your much earlier claim about transmissions from aircraft in controlled airspace is correct. You just claimed VFR in controlled airspace was verboten in Europe.
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Post by Andrew on Aug 18, 2014 16:31:24 GMT
Even in controlled airspace you do not have to be mode S compliant to fly VFR in Europe and you do not have to have ADS-B. The system relies in the first instance upon the pilot identifying themselves and doing as they are asked to do. Pilots want to keep their ratings and so will do their utmost to comply with ATC. Future systems may well bolt the aircraft id to transmissions but we are not there yet. You cannot fly VFR in controlled airspace in Europe as that airspace is mandatory IFR, unless it is 'special VFR' by particular arrangement with the airspace controlling authority and flying an agreed procedure at an agreed time. Current systems do a complete code/callsign linkage based on the aircraft flight plan and surveillance identifying the aircraft code whether secondary or ADS-B - this radar to flight data pairing and even correlating primary radar tracks to flight plans has been used in the US and UK since the early 1970's. The radar tracking then updates the flight database with the actual progress of the aircraft. With ADS-B aircraft can be tracked from power on of the transponder before they taxi. With the increase in types of surveillance, ADS-B, ADS-C, multi-lateration, primary and secondary radar etc., the surveillance systems correlate every position report from each system and create a track for the aircraft using systems called multi-sensor trackers which are replacing the old 1970s mosaiced radar surveillance. All these systems are in use now, the equipage of some aircraft is not quite up to par but the mandates for aircraft to equip are in place. There is no such place as Europe when it comes to ATC requirements, and no such thing as one single controlled airspace type. Prearranged flight plans just give you a far better chance of entering controlled airspace, where clearance is not automatic upon request. Yes for sure big brother wants to watch you but it depends upon where you are, what type of controlled airspace you are in, what your aircraft is fitted with, what is working, the mood of the controller and so forth.
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Post by Andrew on Aug 18, 2014 15:37:53 GMT
The Iphone is not directly using an ADS-B plane feed. Those have to be obtained by the application provider and provided to the internet. Even so I agree the satellite tech is way ahead of what I was thinking of when I replied. However ADS-B is not going to be mandatory for all aircraft in Europe. "European mandate for ADS-B OUT requires 1090ES ADS-B Out with a Diversity Mode-S transponder by 1/8/15 for new aircraft and 12/7/17 for retrofits, and only applies to aircraft >12,500lbs or max cruise >250kts TAS." There are multiple aircraft trackers available that use all the available information and build aircraft tracks from them, often more successfully than the ATC systems. The weight limit as I said in one of my earlier posts allows puddle jumpers but not a lot else definitely not something that would be able to 'spray' a large area from high altitude. If you really think that aircraft can operate in mandatory control airspace without quite a few people and organizations knowing who they are and what they are doing you really need a tinfoil hat. That includes military operations. Even in controlled airspace you do not have to be mode S compliant to fly VFR in Europe and you do not have to have ADS-B. The system relies in the first instance upon the pilot identifying themselves and doing as they are asked to do. Pilots want to keep their ratings and so will do their utmost to comply with ATC. Future systems may well bolt the aircraft id to transmissions but we are not there yet.
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