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Post by stranger on Jun 16, 2011 18:55:43 GMT
If North Korea, or any other country were releasing any appreciable amount of SFsub6 they would have a substantial amount of explaining to do. If climate skeptics ran the world, unsatisfactory answers would result in regime change.
Stranger
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Post by dusty09 on Jun 17, 2011 22:13:22 GMT
Socold,
Dumping millions of tons of sulfur hexafluoride would generally be classed as pollution as opposed to releasing CO2 which is a part of a natural cycle and I think therefore would in contrast be described as a fertiliser.
As for your point about models and proof; I'm not convinced that with the uncertainties present in the measured record and the use of proxies we've had long enough to determine how good they actually are. I also think not enough is understood about how the atmosphere is affected by the Sun, the article I posted a link to for all I know may be the wild ramblings of an oil industry chief exec but the reasoning appears sound and describes a mechanism that would explain the last few harsh winters and non existent summers....Not to mention little ice ages and medieval climate optimums
One final point about the models used in weather forecasts is over a short term they seem Ok at resolving the movement of the pressure patterns but can't predict how they develop. Surely this is typical of most dynamic models where the step inputs are added by the modeller and the response tested. When you can produce a model that successfully predicts a step input then you've a fighting chance of predicting climate
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Post by trbixler on Jul 5, 2011 13:54:25 GMT
some solar cycle stuff I will note this is solarcylce24 not CO2 cycle Armageddon. "Study: solar activity lull increases chances of cold UK winters" "As the Sun enters a period of low solar activity over the next 50 years, new research has calculated the probability of unusually cold winter temperatures occurring in the UK. Last year, the same group of researchers, from the University of Reading, linked colder winters in Europe to low solar activity and predicted that the Sun is moving into a particularly low period of activity, meaning the UK will experience more cold winters in the future – potentially similar to those experienced in the Maunder minimum at the end of the 17th century." wattsupwiththat.com/2011/07/05/study-solar-activity-lull-increases-chances-of-cold-uk-winters/
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Post by trbixler on Jul 11, 2011 4:30:42 GMT
some more cycle 24 weather thoughts "Solar activity report: the sun is still in a funk" "This chart compares the development of Solar Cycle 24 with the last de Vries cycle event – the Dalton Minimum. The Solar Cycle 24 ramp up in terms of sunspot number is tracking much the same as that of Solar Cycle 5 but about a year ahead of it. All solar activity indications are for a Dalton Minimum repeat. There has been no development that precludes that outcome." wattsupwiththat.com/2011/07/09/solar-activity-report-the-sun-is-still-in-a-funk/
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Post by trbixler on Jul 12, 2011 4:17:59 GMT
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Post by trbixler on Jul 13, 2011 12:43:30 GMT
Yet again the sun. Yet again I believe the warmists will be cool to this concept. "When I started out in climate science in 2005, the climate people ignored the solar physics community. A casual perusal of the literature though indicated that the difference in climate outcome from Dikpati’s (NASA) estimate for Solar Cycle 24 amplitude of 190 and Clilverd’s (British Antarctic Survey) estimate of 42 amounted to 2.0°C for the mid-latitudes."
"Solar Cycles 24 to 27 are annotated. For the next thirty years odd, temperatures will be at mid-19th Century levels. With the two year decrease in the length of Solar Cycle 26 from 25, temperatures will rise by 1.4°C by mid-century to late 20th Century levels." wattsupwiththat.com/2011/07/13/archibald-climate-forecast-to-2050/#more-43354
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Post by trbixler on Jul 15, 2011 5:32:47 GMT
Residents fear reprisal from CIA and EPA as no carbon credits were purchased from the Volcanic Action Exchange. Justification for these actions will have to heard by the IPCC. "Central Indonesian volcano erupts, residents flee" "TOMOHON, Indonesia: A volcano in central Indonesia spit lava and smoke high into the air on Friday, sending thousands of panicked residents fleeing down its fiery slopes. There were no immediate reports of casualties. Mount Lokon, located in northern Sulawesi province, unleashed its first powerful eruption at 10:46 pm on Thursday, said Brian Rulrone, a disaster management agency official. That blast was followed by a second just after midnight and a third at 1:10 am on Friday." timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/rest-of-world/Central-Indonesian-volcano-erupts-residents-flee/articleshow/9231932.cms
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Post by trbixler on Jul 17, 2011 14:28:28 GMT
The link between solar minimums and increased volcanic activity is correlative. With the focus on CO2 it seems we may not know why, but the sun continues to be the elephant in the living room. "TOMOHON, Indonesia — A volatile volcano in central Indonesia unleashed its most powerful eruption yet Sunday, spewing hot ash and smoke thousands of metres into the air and sending panicked villagers racing back to emergency shelters. There were no immediate reports of casualties. " www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/TopStories/20110717/indonesia-volcanno-ash-110717/
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Post by trbixler on Jul 18, 2011 17:10:41 GMT
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Post by hairball on Jul 18, 2011 18:52:26 GMT
Published yesterday: Partial radiogenic heat model for Earth revealed by geoneutrino measurements Nature Geoscience (2011) doi:10.1038/ngeo1205 "The current total heat flux from the Earth to space is 44.2±1TW [...] We find that decay of uranium-238 and thorium-232 together contribute 20±8.7TW to Earth’s heat flux. The neutrinos emitted from the decay of potassium-40 are below the limits of detection in our experiments, but are known to contribute 4 TW. Taken together, our observations indicate that heat from radioactive decay contributes about half of Earth’s total heat flux."www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1205.htmlHalf. That's very surprising to me. It's pretty much proven that solar flares increase radioactive decay by a fraction of a percent.
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Post by trbixler on Jul 18, 2011 21:06:39 GMT
Published yesterday: Partial radiogenic heat model for Earth revealed by geoneutrino measurements Nature Geoscience (2011) doi:10.1038/ngeo1205 "The current total heat flux from the Earth to space is 44.2±1TW [...] We find that decay of uranium-238 and thorium-232 together contribute 20±8.7TW to Earth’s heat flux. The neutrinos emitted from the decay of potassium-40 are below the limits of detection in our experiments, but are known to contribute 4 TW. Taken together, our observations indicate that heat from radioactive decay contributes about half of Earth’s total heat flux."www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1205.htmlHalf. That's very surprising to me. It's pretty much proven that solar flares increase radioactive decay by a fraction of a percent. I always knew the energy came from somewhere. But I must admit that I believed steve and his insulation and then I thought it was refracted light from the polar icecap. Well us old folks are easily confused when it comes to shell games.
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Post by trbixler on Jul 28, 2011 13:07:42 GMT
Ah the old B field at work. We all instinctively know when it up or down, right? Why its interaction with the earths cycles are included in my model, right? Well those Northern lights just come and go and those volcanoes just erupt. Why our magnetic core has no influence from the sun, right? "Powerful Magnetic Waves Behind Sun’s Coronal Heating Mystery?" "Now the latest study reveals that Alfven waves that are over a hundred times stronger than previously measured, with amplitudes on the order of 12 miles (20 km) per second—enough to heat the Sun's outer atmosphere to millions of degrees and drive the solar wind. The waves are easily seen in high-resolution images of the outer atmosphere as they cause high-speed jets of hot material, called spicules, to sway." ""Understanding solar processes advances our knowledge of Earth-Sun interactions, providing insights on how UV radiation generated by solar storms affects the Earth's upper atmosphere, stratospheric ozone and — potentially — global climate dynamics over both short and longer time scales," McIntosh explained." www.ibtimes.com/articles/188333/20110728/sun-s-coronal-solar-corona-alfven-waves-heating-mystery-magnetic-waves-nasa-s-solar-dynamics-observa.htm
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Post by trbixler on Aug 1, 2011 0:45:19 GMT
Interesting news of course not from CAGW NASA but Russia. I could add earthshaking but then who would have guessed the sun?
"Some scientists believe bursts of solar activity cause natural disasters on our planet, but until now the star has been too difficult to reach or explore in any detail. Some Russian researchers think they have the solution. Volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, tsunamis -- apocalyptic pictures are becoming an ordinary part of news bulletins across the globe. And scientists are not giving out reassuring forecasts. "Unfortunately, we're expecting more severe cataclysms which may lead to large-scale human losses and destruction," says Baku-based Professor Elchin Kakhalilov of the Global Network for the Forecasting of Earthquakes. "I'm talking about even a possible shift of the centers of our entire civilization." The change in the Earth's seismic activity coincides with the rise of activity on the sun."
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Post by trbixler on Aug 10, 2011 5:05:30 GMT
I am reminded of the progression of cycle 24
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Post by trbixler on Aug 10, 2011 13:17:23 GMT
Sometimes we do not even see it. "Surprise! Underwater volcano has erupted " "An undersea volcano has erupted off the coast of Oregon, spewing forth a layer of lava more than 12 feet thick in some places, and opening up deep vents that belch forth a cloudy stew of hot water and microbes from deep inside the Earth. " www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44080264/ns/technology_and_science-science/#.TkKEOWEnPkI
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