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Post by trbixler on Mar 3, 2013 15:19:21 GMT
Correlation why yes, but causation given the complexities of climate not so easy. The story on CO2/SO2/... is that they can be shown in the lab to do x but in the real world with probable a thousand other variables not so easy. That is why one has to laugh at all of the AGW climate B.S. and its associated linear "science" of the moment.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 3, 2013 15:35:45 GMT
The problem is that some of these "climate affecters" only seem to work part of the time.
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Post by graywolf on Mar 4, 2013 13:12:10 GMT
Maybe you need to look at things from a different perspective Karlox?
With the Paper on moderate volcanoes showing a 25% reduction in warming due to the 'dimming' we expect from such events and Nasa telling us that we lose up to 50% of our warming from Human sourced particulate pollution whilst sat in the depths of PDO-ve (and it's attendant Nina's) with solar output on it's way to a 'Maunder Min' how the hell have we been able to warm at all over the past decades? How have such climate negatives been overpowered to the point that the Greenland ice sheet appears hell bent of a doubling of mass loss over a 5 year period and polar sea ice was able to drop a further 18% last summer?
More worryingly what happens when we drop back into average volcanic activity, Asia cleans up it's emmisions and we move into PDO+ve (over the coming decade)?
What i'm saying isthat if the data is correct then what wil we see once climate change is not held back by human/natural factors and is augmented by some of them?
Remember we are told we have 0.7c of temp rise to go before all the northern permafrosts are at risk (and we stand to inherit twice the GHG load in the atmosphere at present from the 'trapped' GHG's held in stasis in the permafrost).
We appear to be sailing quite a close line to a point where we lose control over our climate and 'nature' fully takes over the climate flip.
Sadly we are wasting the time that we have been offered by these negative forcings by entering into endless arguments about whether we are warming or not. It's like sitting under a parasol and saying " the suns not that strong today is it?".
Should the current 'Crackopolypse' across the Arctic Basin lead to an early melt out date for the majority of the ice we can expect a further intensification of our summer 'climate' in 2013 with even more folk linking what they are experiencing first hand to what they remember being told about climate change.
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 4, 2013 13:19:42 GMT
graywolf: Seems the abstract uses the word "Suggests".
Correlation is not causation.
Sheeeesh.
Not everyone is scientifically illiterate....ya know?
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Post by trbixler on Mar 22, 2013 13:58:10 GMT
The Volcanoes did it. Climate change! Kind of a catchy phrase that climate change. " Mega volcanoes responsible for mass extinctions on Earth?" "Massive volcanic eruptions may have led to the extermination of half of Earth's species some 200 million years ago, a new study suggests. The release of gases from giant eruptions caused climate change that led to the End-Triassic Extinction, the widespread loss of land and sea species that made way for the rise of the dinosaurs, the research says. The new study, published Thursday, March 21, in the journal Science, shows that a set of major eruptions spanning from what is now New Jersey to Morocco occurred very close to the time of the extinction." link
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Post by karlox on Mar 22, 2013 18:05:23 GMT
Maybe you need to look at things from a different perspective Karlox? With the Paper on moderate volcanoes showing a 25% reduction in warming due to the 'dimming' we expect from such events and Nasa telling us that we lose up to 50% of our warming from Human sourced particulate pollution whilst sat in the depths of PDO-ve (and it's attendant Nina's) with solar output on it's way to a 'Maunder Min' how the hell have we been able to warm at all over the past decades? How have such climate negatives been overpowered to the point that the Greenland ice sheet appears hell bent of a doubling of mass loss over a 5 year period and polar sea ice was able to drop a further 18% last summer? More worryingly what happens when we drop back into average volcanic activity, Asia cleans up it's emmisions and we move into PDO+ve (over the coming decade)? What i'm saying isthat if the data is correct then what wil we see once climate change is not held back by human/natural factors and is augmented by some of them? Remember we are told we have 0.7c of temp rise to go before all the northern permafrosts are at risk (and we stand to inherit twice the GHG load in the atmosphere at present from the 'trapped' GHG's held in stasis in the permafrost). We appear to be sailing quite a close line to a point where we lose control over our climate and 'nature' fully takes over the climate flip. Sadly we are wasting the time that we have been offered by these negative forcings by entering into endless arguments about whether we are warming or not. It's like sitting under a parasol and saying " the suns not that strong today is it?". Should the current 'Crackopolypse' across the Arctic Basin lead to an early melt out date for the majority of the ice we can expect a further intensification of our summer 'climate' in 2013 with even more folk linking what they are experiencing first hand to what they remember being told about climate change. Graywolf, there are so many factors that are showing up to have an influence on Earths Mean Temp or more significantly the Artic Basin and permafrost temp rises and descend... So we do not know if volcanoes -as an average- are entering into decades of low or moderate or high activity... we really do not know what might be coming from that side... As far as sun is concerned we are starting to better understand how could it be affecting earth´s climate further than known and accepted. We seem now to be entering sort of a Maunder Minimum first time in satellite era, so we shall learn more within a few years. But now, no-one can tell wether this influence for next decades would add or substract temp and/or precip distribution etc. We certainly do not know. So what can we possibly do? We are going to consume cheaper power source available; whether it is gaz, oil, nuclear, coal, solar perhaps... and we some part of the world bans some resource othes will take it happily. That´s why I would rather impose a heavy tax on SO2 and dangerous emissions worlwide. That would be a right message. But C02... let´s assume nothing serious can be done without harming further the economy... And create virtual markets of CO2, players on the tables from all tyranies round the world? That´s a joke. Should penalize countries and industries that do not control air-healthness taking appropriate measure. Against social and nature dumping practices. That´s what is draggin us to disaster.
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Post by trbixler on May 7, 2013 13:28:45 GMT
CO2 permit required.
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Post by cuttydyer on May 7, 2013 13:59:46 GMT
The Philippine National Government should make amends by way of a hefty contribution to Al Gore's carbon credit company.
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Post by nautonnier on May 7, 2013 20:20:40 GMT
There is an interesting discussion of the impact of volcanic eruptions on civilization here on Musings from Chiefio discussion of possible impact of Icelandic volcanic eruptions on Egypt in time of the pharaohs
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Post by trbixler on May 8, 2013 2:51:40 GMT
naut After reading the link El Chiefo makes a strong argument for volcanoes having a dramatic effect on civilization and climate. The volcano link to solar cycles is real in my book. Hope it all does not come together to soon.
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Post by karlox on May 8, 2013 8:12:26 GMT
Very interesting link in post above. Fortunately the other major volcano mentioned, Santorini, has stopped this year record 2011-2012 uplift activity: Santorini current vulcanic status
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on May 8, 2013 17:23:01 GMT
Maybe you need to look at things from a different perspective Karlox? We appear to be sailing quite a close line to a point where we lose control over our climate and 'nature' fully takes over the climate flip. Karlox, I have a couple of problems with the above line... First. When did we have control over our climate. I seem to have missed that. Could you explain please? Second. I far as I know Earths climate has two fairly stable states. One being the current interglacial period, where glaciers are in retreat and the world is much more favorable to life. The other, where glaciers advance out of the polar regions and mountains into areas that where life is killed off. You seem to be suggesting a third state? Perhaps a state where the worldwide temperatures are much higher than now? Is there any evidence that such a state exists? What would cause this to happen? You seem to be suggesting that CO2 levels at 400ppm are near some tipping point? I would agree with you on these points. The Earth is experiencing dangerously low levels of CO2 that are threatening all life on the planet. If CO2 levels were to fall below ~165ppm, it is likely that most life on Earth will perish. These low levels of CO2 are historic, and there are only a few periods in history of the planet where CO2 has dropped to such low levels. Until recently, planetary CO2 levels had been falling for millions of years, then about 20 million years ago CO2 levels became fairly stable at extremely low levels of about 350ppm. Just a couple of hundred ppm above what would be the end of much of life on Earth. Humans might not have much control over climate, but human activity over the past hundred years seems to indicate that it is possible for us to free carbon that has been trapped by natural processes, and inject it into Earths carbon starved ecosystem, possibly saving life on earth as we know it. I think it is time to round up the James Hansen's of the world and try them for crimes against humanity for trying to stop the life trains, and kill us all.
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Post by karlox on May 10, 2013 7:41:53 GMT
Maybe you need to look at things from a different perspective Karlox? We appear to be sailing quite a close line to a point where we lose control over our climate and 'nature' fully takes over the climate flip. Karlox, I have a couple of problems with the above line... First. When did we have control over our climate. I seem to have missed that. Could you explain please? Second. I far as I know Earths climate has two fairly stable states. One being the current interglacial period, where glaciers are in retreat and the world is much more favorable to life. The other, where glaciers advance out of the polar regions and mountains into areas that where life is killed off. You seem to be suggesting a third state? Perhaps a state where the worldwide temperatures are much higher than now? Is there any evidence that such a state exists? What would cause this to happen? You seem to be suggesting that CO2 levels at 400ppm are near some tipping point? I would agree with you on these points. The Earth is experiencing dangerously low levels of CO2 that are threatening all life on the planet. If CO2 levels were to fall below ~165ppm, it is likely that most life on Earth will perish. These low levels of CO2 are historic, and there are only a few periods in history of the planet where CO2 has dropped to such low levels. Until recently, planetary CO2 levels had been falling for millions of years, then about 20 million years ago CO2 levels became fairly stable at extremely low levels of about 350ppm. Just a couple of hundred ppm above what would be the end of much of life on Earth. Humans might not have much control over climate, but human activity over the past hundred years seems to indicate that it is possible for us to free carbon that has been trapped by natural processes, and inject it into Earths carbon starved ecosystem, possibly saving life on earth as we know it. I think it is time to round up the James Hansen's of the world and try them for crimes against humanity for trying to stop the life trains, and kill us all. dontgetoutmuch think you meant Graywolf in your quote?
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Post by trbixler on May 14, 2013 1:38:39 GMT
Another CO2 permit required. "Mexico's 'Popo' volcano spews ash, molten rock" " MEXICO CITY — Mexican officials are preparing evacuation routes and shelters for tens of thousands of people who live in the shadow of Popocatepetl, a giant volcano 40 miles southeast of Mexico City. "Popo," as the volcano is known, has displayed a "notable increase in activity levels" in the last few days, including tremors and explosive eruptions, according to a statement from the federal government. Webcams have shown large chunks of molten rock spewing from the crater, and ash has rained down on the nearby city of Puebla. On Sunday, Mexico's National Center for Disaster Prevention elevated its warning level to "Yellow Phase 3," the fifth stage of a seven-stage warning scale. At the next stage, the government warns, "there is danger. You and your family should be ready for evacuation." The 17,887-foot Popocatepetl, which means "smoking mountain" in the Aztec language Nahuatl, dominates much of the landscape in central Mexico, along with its nearby "twin" volcano, the dormant Iztaccihuatl. There have been moderate outbursts from Popo in recent years, forcing the government to evacuate as many as 75,000 people at a time. Read more here: www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/05/13/191098/mexicos-popo-volcano-spews-ash.html#.UZF_tT7DVoY#storylink=cpy"
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Post by sigurdur on May 14, 2013 17:15:20 GMT
Maybe you need to look at things from a different perspective Karlox? With the Paper on moderate volcanoes showing a 25% reduction in warming due to the 'dimming' we expect from such events and Nasa telling us that we lose up to 50% of our warming from Human sourced particulate pollution whilst sat in the depths of PDO-ve (and it's attendant Nina's) with solar output on it's way to a 'Maunder Min' how the hell have we been able to warm at all over the past decades? How have such climate negatives been overpowered to the point that the Greenland ice sheet appears hell bent of a doubling of mass loss over a 5 year period and polar sea ice was able to drop a further 18% last summer? More worryingly what happens when we drop back into average volcanic activity, Asia cleans up it's emmisions and we move into PDO+ve (over the coming decade)? What i'm saying isthat if the data is correct then what wil we see once climate change is not held back by human/natural factors and is augmented by some of them? Remember we are told we have 0.7c of temp rise to go before all the northern permafrosts are at risk (and we stand to inherit twice the GHG load in the atmosphere at present from the 'trapped' GHG's held in stasis in the permafrost). We appear to be sailing quite a close line to a point where we lose control over our climate and 'nature' fully takes over the climate flip. Sadly we are wasting the time that we have been offered by these negative forcings by entering into endless arguments about whether we are warming or not. It's like sitting under a parasol and saying " the suns not that strong today is it?". Should the current 'Crackopolypse' across the Arctic Basin lead to an early melt out date for the majority of the ice we can expect a further intensification of our summer 'climate' in 2013 with even more folk linking what they are experiencing first hand to what they remember being told about climate change. Grawwolf: Ever hear of UV and its variation?
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