Solar Cycle 24 Main Discussion IX

[Bob k6tr]

50 Pages and a new month.

As good a time as any for a new thread.

Here is the link to the last thread.

solarcycle24com.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=1034

[fredfriendly]

CME heading for earth.

nasawatch.com/archives/2010/08/coronal-mass-ej.html

[sigurdur]

This is going to be a good one to watch. Finally!

[farkstick]

Here's a couple of models from the CCMC folks.

Density:


Velocity:


Whoo baby!!

[af4ex]

>> This is going to be a good one to watch. Finally!

What is the estimated arrival time of the CME? (The animation was too fast for me to see the numbers)

My guess is that an event like this will cause some geomagnetic disturbances which can be "watched" at these on-line magnetometer sites:
www.haarp.alaska.edu/haarp/data.html [HAARP]
geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/ [USGS]
lasp.colorado.edu/space_weather/dsttemerin/dsttemerin.html [LASP]

Are there any other web spots (or ham bands) that can provide [near] real-time event reporting? Will this kick up [or down] any HF/VHF activity? What are the working frequencies for auroral prop? (I'm in Florida, so that's probably a moot question.)
:-]

[csspider57]

Quote Mr. Farkstick> Here's a couple of models from the CCMC folks.
<

Whoaaa, dude. Blow me down, my first CME on those models. Far out.

[farkstick]

CME Alert - Time Of Arrival Prediction:
Issue Date: 2010-08-01 17:25:44.0
Arrival Time: 2010-08-02 18:03:00.0 +/- 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 4hours +/- 8 hours
Alarm: On.

Yeah, pretty neat eh Miss Spider?
Clear the way!!!

[af4ex]

>> Arrival Time: 2010-08-02 18:03:00.0 +/- 6 hours

Did the CME hit the Earth? I see no blips on the K-index chart or the magnetometer web sites. Also the SDO video shows the CME filament launching from the "Scandinavian" regions of the sun. Wouldn't that lob it out way over our heads (i.e. above the plane of the solar system)?

www.nasa.gov/multimedia/videogallery/index.html?collection_id=13587&media_id=16939864

[lenardo]

Fox news is saying it is due to arrive early morning on the 4th...

[lsvalgaard]

Aug 3, 2010 16:35:38 GMT lenardo said:

Fox news is saying it is due to arrive early morning on the 4th...

in a few minutes...
and the geomagnetic storm will probably be weak.

it just hit a few minutes ago:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/bou_12h.html


And here is why it is expected to only generate a weak storm [initially]:


The solar north pole has field into the Sun. The filament that lifted up straddled a boundary between inwards and outwards fields. The field is basically frozen to the plasma so the blob leaving the Sun will have that same signature: northwards pointing on the front and southwards on the back. The Earth's field on the sunward side is pointing north, so the CME and the Earth will not reconnect and the geomagnetic storm will be minor. Now if the backside of the CME is well organized, its southward field might survive and connect later with the Earth's field creating a storm later on. We shall see,

[af4ex]

geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/

All of the USGS sensors are now booming with the CME signal, starting around 1740 3-Aug

[mrmga]

It seems like the media is grossly overreacting to these events? For example, the U.K.'s Telegraph warns of a "solar tsunami" and a "wave of violent space weather." But the latest report from NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center says "Activity is expected to be at active to minor storm
levels with a slight chance for major storm on days 2 - 3." (Leif explained why this is the case in his previous post.) If the major storm does occur, how bad will it be? Will it damage electrical grids or merely cause an unusually large aurora borrealis?

[boxman]

Here media made it sound like it was a big event and would cause major aurora even in southern parts of norway/scandinavia.

[lsvalgaard]

Aug 3, 2010 19:09:38 GMT mrmga said:

It seems like the media is grossly overreacting to these events? For example, the U.K.'s Telegraph warns of a "solar tsunami" and a "wave of violent space weather." But the latest report from NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center says "Activity is expected to be at active to minor storm
levels with a slight chance for major storm on days 2 - 3." (Leif explained why this is the case in his previous post.) If the major storm does occur, how bad will it be? Will it damage electrical grids or merely cause an unusually large aurora borrealis?

Any storm will be minor as the solar wind speed for the CME is not terribly high.

UPDATE: the field has now turned southwards as predicted, but is still weak and the solar wind velocity is not very high, and finally the density is low, so a weak storm is expected. The K-index might reach 6 or so. Hardly spectacular.

[csspider57]

Quote Dr. S. >The solar north pole has field into the Sun. The filament that lifted up straddled a boundary between inwards and outwards fields. The field is basically frozen to the plasma so the blob leaving the Sun will have that same signature: northwards pointing on the front and southwards on the back. The Earth's field on the sunward side is pointing north, so the CME and the Earth will not reconnect and the geomagnetic storm will be minor. Now if the backside of the CME is well organized, its southward field might survive and connect later with the Earth's field creating a storm later on. We shall see<

Hey Leif that's pretty wild, thanks.

gse.gi.alaska.edu/recent/ecimf.html