Solar Cycle 24 Main Discussion IX

[farkstick]

Aug 24, 2010 9:25:08 GMT france said:

Did you read Kevin wrote on front page

An aurora watch is in effect as the solar wind is now starting to increase and this is due to a coronal hole on the face of the sun. There will be a chance for minor geomagnetic storming at high latitudes.

I think this is kinda weird, did the stream hit early? SW speed @ speed: 666.1 km/sec, it was up to almost 800km earlier I think. Unfortunately, I'm at a heavily restricted terminal and I can't access many websites to chcek. Isn't that the highest it's been since minimum?

I also noticed that the magnetopause standoff distance dropped almost to the height of GOES orbit.. About 25000 km..

[france]

Aug 23, 2010 20:09:58 GMT bigbud said:

Hi France
All fine here thank you, and Sara is one year old tomorrow

From JPs syzygy computations, I have a rather weak one on 2010,768 (Oct.6) with strength 1,3. So maybe it will be rather insignificant?



I have correlations saying we should see elevated flux around the syzygies of VeJu and EaJu in Sept-Oct, but I have no idea how much...

Do you have any expectations?

BB

Williams did a graph too to compare syzygies an solar cycles. Look here


if activity increases with the syzygy we can expect more sunspots so a flux in rise. But how much ? You thrust the bet as you are used to doing ?
So I attempt between 75 and 85 sfu is it so wrong

About flux :
Did anyone notice what happens on august 7 ?

Is it exact what I copy ?
an M1/2f flare at 07/1824Z. Associated with this event were Tenflare signatures at 07/1827Z (110 sfu) and 07/1901Z (150 sfu) along with Type II (675 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps.solar activity is expected to be very low to low with C-class flares likely from Region 1093

"150 sfu" is it the good writing ?

It's very high, and at very short notice

so maybe it will be equal for the next syzygy

[inverse]

According to the butterfly diagram we should see a lot more activity in 2011. Is this correct, I have included a diagram where I have pasted out the same period of time as a comparison.

The two gray blocks are end of cycle and the yellow are the first year of the new cycle after the old cycle is finished, the far right yellow block is a copy of 1987.

Have we had a white gap between cycles in the past as extreme as this one? I guess if cycle 24 does not ramp up the butterfly turns into a scatter graph

Attachments:

[fredfriendly]

We should see alot more sunspots if this is a normal cycle, of course, the point is many are not sure if this is a normal cycle as it has not started "normally" and the end of the last cycle was weak. So, yes, you are correct if this is a normal cycle, and all likelihoods still say we will have more spots in 2011. That said, most on this board think we will have many fewer spots than "normal"

[france]

on august 27 IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged between quiet and active conditions over
the past 24 hours. The greater than 10 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous obit was at high levels throughout the period.



Does the 10 MeV electron flux belong to Sun ?

[inverse]

Looking at stereo I think the Sun has been using some zit cream, why do we keep getting boring mole type spots like Alpha 1101, whats the normal ratio of these verses active spots compared to previous cycle ramp ups?

Stereo is now a great tool to show that the other 3 sides of the Sun are not the places all the fun happens... Human nature, grass is always greener debunked yet again...

Stereo looking less zitty: stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/beacon/euvi_195_heliographic.gif

[lsvalgaard]

Aug 28, 2010 10:08:08 GMT france said:

on august 27 IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged between quiet and active conditions over
the past 24 hours. The greater than 10 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous obit was at high levels throughout the period.



Does the 10 MeV electron flux belong to Sun ?

No, to the Earth.

[france]

Aug 29, 2010 3:41:03 GMT lsvalgaard said:

Aug 28, 2010 10:08:08 GMT france said:

on august 27 IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged between quiet and active conditions over
the past 24 hours. The greater than 10 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous obit was at high levels throughout the period.



Does the 10 MeV electron flux belong to Sun ?

No, to the Earth.

Thanks for your answer Dr Svalgaard, I knew geomagnetic field belongs to the Earth. But what gives this variation in 10MeV electron flux whether not Sun ? galactic rays ?

[af4ex]

>> But what gives this variation in 10MeV electron flux ... ?

France, I'm a neophyte in this forum, but here is my understanding of the matter.
As you know, the "geosynchronous obit" refers to orbits 22,000Km out where satellites can hover and stare over the same piece of ground continuously. This band of orbits is situated (fortunately) between the two Van Allen radiation belts that straddle the earth. This intense radiation consists of energetic protons and electrons in the inner belt and energetic electrons in the outer.

It would be natural to assume that these protons and electrons come entirely from the sun, but that is not true. It is believed that the inner belt protons and electrons are generated by neutron decay stemming from cosmic ray collisions with the atmosphere (modulated by solar activity of course).

The outer belt electrons are created by a different process, possibly fed by the electron flux in the solar wind. But the exact process which propels the relatively low energy electrons in the solar wind to relativistic levels in the radiation belts is an open area of research:
www.nature.com/nphys/journal/v3/n9/full/nphys655.html

But it has been long established that there is correlation between solar wind electron flux and belt flux, but it is not sufficient to explain everything that is observed:
lasp.colorado.edu/~lix/paper/GRL/grl96.camera.pdf

Getting back to your question, the variations in the flux are correlated to geomagnetic activity. One measure of this activity is the so-called "Disturbance storm time" or Dst index, which also shows the interaction between the flux induced magnetism and the earth's magnetic field. The magnetism induced by these "ring currents" oppose the Earth's field, thus storms show up as "dips" in the Dst plots.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disturbance_Storm_Time_Index

The Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP) has done a lot of research in the area for many years, a lot of which is publicly available.

They monitor the solar wind flux from the ACE satellite, which operates from a Lagrangian L1 "halo orbit" a million miles closer to the Sun than Earth.
www.srl.caltech.edu/ACE/

LASP has developed algorithms to "predict" the geomagnetic Dst disturbances using ACE data, and as you can see for yourself in this real-time webpage, it does a pretty good job. (You can see a big Dst dip which happened on 5 Aug):
lasp.colorado.edu/space_weather/dsttemerin/dsttemerin.html

So the Dst fluctuations are strongly influenced by solar wind, but the mechanisms which propel keV electrons to meV levels are not entirely understood.

Leif, did I get any of that right? :-]

John/af4ex

[lsvalgaard]

Aug 29, 2010 13:12:49 GMT af4ex said:

>> But what gives this variation in 10MeV electron flux ... ?

France, I'm a neophyte in this forum, but here is my understanding of the matter.
As you know, the "geosynchronous obit" refers to orbits 22,000Km out where satellites can hover and stare over the same piece of ground continuously. This band of orbits is situated (fortunately) between the two Van Allen radiation belts that straddle the earth. This intense radiation consists of energetic protons and electrons in the inner belt and energetic electrons in the outer.

It would be natural to assume that these protons and electrons come entirely from the sun, but that is not true. It is believed that the inner belt protons and electrons are generated by neutron decay stemming from cosmic ray collisions with the atmosphere (modulated by solar activity of course).

The outer belt electrons are created by a different process, possibly fed by the electron flux in the solar wind. But the exact process which propels the relatively low energy electrons in the solar wind to relativistic levels in the radiation belts is an open area of research:
www.nature.com/nphys/journal/v3/n9/full/nphys655.html

But it has been long established that there is correlation between solar wind electron flux and belt flux, but it is not sufficient to explain everything that is observed:
lasp.colorado.edu/~lix/paper/GRL/grl96.camera.pdf

Getting back to your question, the variations in the flux are correlated to geomagnetic activity. One measure of this activity is the so-called "Disturbance storm time" or Dst index, which also shows the interaction between the flux induced magnetism and the earth's magnetic field. The magnetism induced by these "ring currents" oppose the Earth's field, thus storms show up as "dips" in the Dst plots.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disturbance_Storm_Time_Index

The Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP) has done a lot of research in the area for many years, a lot of which is publicly available.

They monitor the solar wind flux from the ACE satellite, which operates from a Lagrangian L1 "halo orbit" a million miles closer to the Sun than Earth.
www.srl.caltech.edu/ACE/

LASP has developed algorithms to "predict" the geomagnetic Dst disturbances using ACE data, and as you can see for yourself in this real-time webpage, it does a pretty good job. (You can see a big Dst dip which happened on 5 Aug):
lasp.colorado.edu/space_weather/dsttemerin/dsttemerin.html

So the Dst fluctuations are strongly influenced by solar wind, but the mechanisms which propel keV electrons to meV levels are not entirely understood.

Leif, did I get any of that right? :-]

John/af4ex

Yes, good job.

[france]

ok, it could be so the combination with the outgoing terrestrial flux because on 26 it was the canicule in many parts of the Earth.

Like NOAA showed how the atmospheric circulation leaves Earth by Poles it could be one of the component of this brief variation in 10MeV

But spaceweather Canada compiled yet high electrons flux on 25

www.spaceweather.gc.ca/sffl-eng.php?

Thanks for the explanation John/af4ex, but if the Dst prediction is not so wrong that means phenomenon is not so bad understood. A least it is on way to be explained

[af4ex]

France wrote:
> ...because on 26 it was the canicule in many parts of the Earth.

"canicule"? We say "dog days" or "heat wave" (but I get the meaning). Merci beaucoup pour ce 'mot du jour'!

Remember that Dst and related indices Ap and Kp measure flucuations or disturbances in the magnetic field, whereas the flux reports the the total flow of charge. Not the same but inter-related.

Are you saying that high relativitisic electron flux causes hot weather? Can it be that simple? The sun's irradiance heats up the earth, but it doesn't change that much on a daily basis.

Dr. Svalgaard has many papers and presentatios on this subject:
www.leif.org/research/Does%20The%20Sun%20Vary%20Enough.ppt

:-]

[france]

Aug 29, 2010 17:31:46 GMT af4ex said:

France wrote:
> ...because on 26 it was the canicule in many parts of the Earth.

"canicule"? We say "dog days" or "heat wave" (but I get the meaning). Merci beaucoup pour ce 'mot du jour'!

Remember that Dst and related indices Ap and Kp measure flucuations or disturbances in the magnetic field, whereas the flux reports the the total flow of charge. Not the same but inter-related.

Are you saying that high relativitisic electron flux causes hot weather? Can it be that simple? The sun's irradiance heats up the earth, but it doesn't change that much on a daily basis.

Dr. Svalgaard has many papers and presentatios on this subject:
www.leif.org/research/Does%20The%20Sun%20Vary%20Enough.ppt

:-]

sorry for the "mot du jour"
about the link between relativist electrons and heat waves (or at the opposite extreme cool temperatures) I read a theory about that . I know Dr Svalgaard finds no links between solar activity and climate.

And for the daily solar disturbances, what about aurorae and pipelines for example ?

[lsvalgaard]

Aug 29, 2010 17:44:17 GMT france said:

Aug 29, 2010 17:31:46 GMT af4ex said:

France wrote:
> ...because on 26 it was the canicule in many parts of the Earth.

"canicule"? We say "dog days" or "heat wave" (but I get the meaning). Merci beaucoup pour ce 'mot du jour'!

Remember that Dst and related indices Ap and Kp measure flucuations or disturbances in the magnetic field, whereas the flux reports the the total flow of charge. Not the same but inter-related.

Are you saying that high relativitisic electron flux causes hot weather? Can it be that simple? The sun's irradiance heats up the earth, but it doesn't change that much on a daily basis.

Dr. Svalgaard has many papers and presentatios on this subject:
www.leif.org/research/Does%20The%20Sun%20Vary%20Enough.ppt

:-]

sorry for the "mot du jour"
about the link between relativist electrons and heat waves (or at the opposite extreme cool temperatures) I read a theory about that . I know Dr Svalgaard finds no links between solar activity and climate.

And for the daily solar disturbances, what about aurorae and pipelines for example ?

The solar wind interact with the Earth's magnetic field and induces electric currents in the upper atmosphere [aurorae] and in pipelines on the ground, and in seawater, and in rocks deep underground.

[france]

Aug 29, 2010 17:49:50 GMT lsvalgaard said:

Aug 29, 2010 17:44:17 GMT france said:

sorry for the "mot du jour"
about the link between relativist electrons and heat waves (or at the opposite extreme cool temperatures) I read a theory about that . I know Dr Svalgaard finds no links between solar activity and climate.

And for the daily solar disturbances, what about aurorae and pipelines for example ?

The solar wind interact with the Earth's magnetic field and induces electric currents in the upper atmosphere [aurorae] and in pipelines on the ground, and in seawater, and in rocks deep underground.

Thanks Dr Svalgaard,

And that all ?Why no more ? Particles or trade winds ? Rossby waves ?