Solar Cycle 24 Main Discussion IX

[af4ex]

@leif
> I don't think L&P were operating during SC14. The reason for
> this assesment is that the relationship between F10.7 and
> SSN was as it was 1950-1990.

Another, more obvious tipoff, if L&P went to full term, would be the fading away of sunspots (which seems to have happened during the Maunder Minimum).

Could it be that Cycle 14 was smaller in SSN than most because the sunspots did fade a bit due to the L&P effect, and so were not counted? (Also might falsify your diurnal variation proxy)

[lsvalgaard]

Jan 7, 2011 20:36:10 GMT af4ex said:

@leif
> I don't think L&P were operating during SC14. The reason for
> this assesment is that the relationship between F10.7 and
> SSN was as it was 1950-1990.

Another, more obvious tipoff, if L&P went to full term, would be the fading away of sunspots (which seems to have happened during the Maunder Minimum).

Could it be that Cycle 14 was smaller in SSN than most because the sunspots did fade a bit due to the L&P effect, and so were not counted? (Also might falsify your diurnal variation proxy)

We know they didn't fade because they were seen in just the right number expected from F10.7. You can, of course, always say that L&P made them fade a certain amount and my proxy is wrong by just that amount, but with the opposite sign, so that the two effects just cancel out...

[af4ex]

@leif
> We know they didn't fade because they were seen in just
> the right number expected from F10.7.

I'll buy that. The correlation seems very strong.

FYI, speaking of magnetic variations, below are the the magnetometer charts (US and Canadian) for yesterday's magnetic storm, which reached Kp=5.

Note that the strips are arranged so that the northernmost latitude is at the top.

So you can see that the Arctic regions get most of the solar wind precipitation. Except for the stations near the magnetic pole (Eureka, Resolute Bay etc), which are inside the Auroral halo. Eureka is apparently so close to the pole that it can't distinguish North from East, magnetically.

The USGS covers a much broader piece of the Northern Hemisphere, from Guam to Alaska to Puerto Rico. I turned off the auto-ranging feature so you can see that Alaska, being closer to the auroral action, gets pounded the most.

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[lsvalgaard]

Jan 7, 2011 21:07:21 GMT af4ex said:

@leif
> We know they didn't fade because they were seen in just
> the right number expected from F10.7.

I'll buy that. The correlation seems very strong.

FYI, speaking of magnetic variations, below are the the magnetometer charts (US and Canadian) for yesterday's magnetic storm, which reached Kp=5.

Note that the strips are arranged so that the northernmost latitude is at the top.

So you can see that the Arctic regions get most of the solar wind precipitation. Except for the stations near the magnetic pole (Eureka, Resolute Bay etc), which are inside the Auroral halo. Eureka is apparently so close to the pole that it can't distinguish North from East, magnetically.

The USGS covers a much broader piece of the Northern Hemisphere, from Guam to Alaska to Puerto Rico. I turned off the auto-ranging feature so you can see that Alaska, being closer to the auroral action, gets pounded the most.

What we observe on the ground is the combined magnetic effects of TWO electric currents. One 15,000 km up [that is what causes most of the low-latitude effects] and one 100 km up and concentrated along the auroral zone. Since we are 150 times closer to the latter we see a much stronger magnetic response. As you go inside the auroral zone, you move away from the 100 km current and so see less effect.

[af4ex]

@leif
> What we observe on the ground is the combined magnetic
> effects of TWO electric currents. One 15,000 km up [that is
> what causes most of the low-latitude effects] and
> one 100 km up and concentrated along the auroral zone.

I didn't know about the 15,000km current. Always thought the equatorial and auroral electrojets were both in the E-layer of the ionosphere, which starts at 100 km. Is this 15,000 km electrojet something different? Collocated with the outer Van Allen belt perhaps?

In any case, it might explain the "antisymmetry" of the two main waves of the storm. Wave I was stronger for the lower latitudes and wave II seemed to hit the auroral regions harder.

So would wave I represent the magnetic effect of the equatorial currents on the lower latitudes? Whereas wave II was mostly the auroral currents?

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[lsvalgaard]

Jan 7, 2011 21:57:23 GMT af4ex said:

@leif
> What we observe on the ground is the combined magnetic
> effects of TWO electric currents. One 15,000 km up [that is
> what causes most of the low-latitude effects] and
> one 100 km up and concentrated along the auroral zone.

I didn't know about the 15,000km current. Always thought the equatorial and auroral electrojets were both in the E-layer of the ionosphere, which starts at 100 km. Is this 15,000 km electrojet something different? Collocated with the outer Van Allen belt perhaps?

In any case, it might explain the "antisymmetry" of the two main waves of the storm. Wave I was stronger for the lower latitudes and wave II seemed to hit the auroral regions harder.

So would wave I represent the magnetic effect of the equatorial currents on the lower latitudes? Whereas wave II was mostly the auroral currents?

Wave I is the Van Allen Belt. It is also called the Ring Current. Its effect on the Horizontal component is largest at the equator.

[af4ex]

@leif
> Wave I is the Van Allen Belt. It is also called the Ring Current.

Yes, ring currents. I've read about them. Didn't realize they were out that far. Is that considered part of the plasmasphere or beyond it?

I recall the old IMAGE spacecraft EUV (304A) images of the plasmasphere. So the ring currents would be outside of that area, near the red circle?

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[af4ex]

AR1143. It's official:
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1139 S27W74 236 0010 Axx 01 03 Alpha
1140 N33W24 187 0140 Cso 02 03 Beta
1142 S14W45 208 0000 Axx 01 02 Alpha
1143 S22E16 147 0020 Dso 04 04 Beta

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[lsvalgaard]

Jan 8, 2011 3:37:32 GMT af4ex said:

@leif
> Wave I is the Van Allen Belt. It is also called the Ring Current.

Yes, ring currents. I've read about them. Didn't realize they were out that far. Is that considered part of the plasmasphere or beyond it?

I recall the old IMAGE spacecraft EUV (304A) images of the plasmasphere. So the ring currents would be outside of that area, near the red circle?

beyond. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Van_Allen_radiation_belt

[af4ex]

Is it possible that the Sun has received a 'wake up' message?

Spots are breaking out all over the surface(center below). Latest is new spot near east limb (left below).

So the SN is shooting up (and probably go higher when even newer spots are counting). (right below)

Only the SFI is lagging, actually slowly sinking since Jan 2.

Penticton
Date MHZ 1700Z 2000Z 2300Z
2011 Jan 2 2800 90 91 90
2011 Jan 3 2800 91 92 92
2011 Jan 4 2800 91 91 89
2011 Jan 5 2800 88 88 87
2011 Jan 6 2800 87 87 87
2011 Jan 7 2800 87 86 86

But I've seen this SFI lag before (and erroneously thought it was a filtering delay). But with all this new activity starting, we can expect the SFI to shoot up quickly too.

It's too early to say whether this is the "rapid rise" we were discussing yesterday.

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[THEO BAKALEXIS]

Hi from athens greece guys.

Fair seeing today but make an observation.

The sun full of region and faculaes today.

The magnetic fields getting up day by day.

1140 remain with large spot.

1143 has sunspot group.

1142 shrinking right now.

1139 form new sunspots but she is at the west limb.

The big filament of the 5th december shrinking but closed the 3rd rotation on disk.

www.solar-007.eu/

[af4ex]

[Observing solar activity by watching it, a lot]

Although the solar surface seems to be sizzling with new spots, the other indicators appear to be drooping. Especially the 2800Mhz microwave flux indicator, which is still notching downwards:
Penticton
Date MHZ 1700Z 2000Z 2300Z
2011 Jan 2 2800 90 91 90
2011 Jan 3 2800 91 92 92
2011 Jan 4 2800 91 91 89
2011 Jan 5 2800 88 88 87
2011 Jan 6 2800 87 87 87
2011 Jan 7 2800 87 86 86
2011 Jan 8 2800 86 85 84


The indices will probably drop even more when 1140 and 1142 rotate out of view.

Yes, I know it's "too early to tell", but I feel that I'm learning a lot by watching this solar paint dry.
:-|

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[THEO BAKALEXIS]

Fair-average seeing today from athens.

The solar conditions remain the same.

Only one extra phainomenon.

We have an eastern plage with sunspot groups. No number yet from NOAA.

www.solar-007.eu/

[af4ex]

@theo
> We have an eastern plage with sunspot groups. No number
> yet from NOAA.

Yes, I noticed it yesterday about this time too. Solen has numbered it "S861"
www.solen.info/solar/

Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
[S860] This region emerged in the southwest quadrant on January 7. Location at midnight: S15W24
[S861] A new region emerged in the northeast quadrant on January 8. Location at midnight: N16E52


It seems NOAA/USAF should have numbered it by now. Government bureaucracy?

[aoi3610]

Hello everyone.

I am new to the Solar game, and this seems the place where it's most measured objectively.

I was hoping someone would be willing to let me know if any increase in solar activity has been seen within the past couple of months. Particularly recently.

I've read back through this thread but to be honest I do not understant some of the abreviations so am only getting half the picture.

I'd really, really appreciate it.

Thanks in advance.

Tony