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Post by vk2fdxr on Jan 28, 2011 2:03:49 GMT
I hope you are right, I want to see the SFI go over 100. Would be nice to see the 15m and 10m bands become more active. They have been somewhat dormant for a while.
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bradk
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Post by bradk on Jan 28, 2011 3:11:26 GMT
Very pretty pictures, and activity may be on the increase, but we still get a zero on sunspots today, and SFI only 81, but that is increased over yesterday if memory serves.
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Post by af4ex on Jan 28, 2011 10:11:04 GMT
Very pretty pictures, and activity may be on the increase, but we still get a zero on sunspots today, and SFI only 81, but that is increased over yesterday if memory serves. The sunspot number is zero because there are "officially" no spots visible. The rules of engagement require a certain waiting period, so the two regions I pointed out yesterday haven't been recognized. Solen has numbered them S865 and S866. S865 looks frail, but S866 is solid (and I predict will soon be AR11150) www.solen.info/solar/ Old 1133/1140 is about to rotate into view, but its x-ray/EUV pre-glow is not as strong as S866, which should raise activity levels a bit. The big filament on the southeast limb, which was active for the last day or so, seems to have disappeared. But that region has been very active for months. So that is a reason to be optimistic.  |
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Post by af4ex on Jan 28, 2011 10:34:53 GMT
Over at Planet X (Earth's invisible twin on the opposite side of the sun) the SN is much higher. And they're probably enjoying all the fireworks from 1149. [Edit: ... and it just fired off another C1.5 flare an hour or so ago(1022Z) ] :-| Attachments:
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Post by af4ex on Jan 28, 2011 10:46:23 GMT
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Post by af4ex on Jan 29, 2011 11:14:41 GMT
[1149] (top left) The saga continues. AR1149, now on the farside, continues to emit big flares (0130Z this morning). But not officially reported earthside of course, (though it looks like some B3-class x-rays were detected by GOES X-RAY around that time). 1150 (top right) B6.7 x-ray flare this morning reported at 0336Z Old 1133/1140 (bottom right) has once again rotated into view (for the third time). I hesitate to use the term 'dying embers', but there's not much left of this once mighty sunspot, the largest in SC24. It's small now, some plage but no spots. But still very bright in x-rays, so there's always hope for a revival. Last 30 days of activity (bottom right) shows a general decline (white arrow). No evidence to support a much longed-for "spike". Note that the slope of the SN decline seems to be steeper than the SFI decline. Can the Livingston & Penn effect be seen in such a short time interval? Attachments:
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Post by af4ex on Jan 29, 2011 13:02:51 GMT
That frail-looking region in the NW has become AR1151, Mt. Wilson class Beta (bipolar). Hard to see any spots inside that thing. :-| Attachments:
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Post by af4ex on Jan 29, 2011 14:13:14 GMT
In the SW quadrant, another small region just popped up. Maybe the future 1152? Attachments:
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bradk
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 199
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Post by bradk on Jan 29, 2011 15:15:05 GMT
John-
Some think that specks are counted more often when a large sunspot is not on the earth facing side, strikes me as a bit paranoid, but...
Do you think that happens?
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Post by af4ex on Jan 29, 2011 20:33:00 GMT
John- Some think that specks are counted more often when a large sunspot is not on the earth facing side, strikes me as a bit paranoid, but... Do you think that happens? I think sunspot counting somewhat of an art and definitely has a subjective element to it. But I think the people who have been doing it professionally have it down to a science, and at least keep their biases constant. SFI is a more reliable method for measuring activity because it can be mostly automated, thus eliminating the subjectivity. Dr. Svalgaard should weigh in on this question too, because he is one of the most knowledgeable experts around on this subject. |
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Post by lsvalgaard on Jan 30, 2011 2:10:02 GMT
John- Some think that specks are counted more often when a large sunspot is not on the earth facing side, strikes me as a bit paranoid, but... Do you think that happens? I think sunspot counting somewhat of an art and definitely has a subjective element to it. But I think the people who have been doing it professionally have it down to a science, and at least keep their biases constant. SFI is a more reliable and method for measuring activity because it can be mostly automated, thus eliminating the subjectivity. Dr. Svalgaard should weigh in on this question too, because he is one of the most knowledgeable experts around on this subject. The 'sunspot counters' are professionals and try to do the best job possible. There is more than 150 years of experience with counting spots, so we know all the pitfalls and problems. |
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N9AAT
Level 3 Rank
DON'T PANIC
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Post by N9AAT on Feb 1, 2011 20:21:08 GMT
Here's a little note. Two nights ago (Jan 31 zulu) I tried to hear Voice of Russia's Moldova transmitter. Nothing on any frequency at any of their times. Last night (Feb 1 zulu) they were present and nicely audible at all published times. What changed? The K-index I suspect.
I love the SFI, but spot counting goes back so much farther. We don't have SFI for 300 years. That far back and we're stuck with spots, so we should definitely keep counting for continuity's sake. ;D
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Post by af4ex on Feb 1, 2011 20:48:23 GMT
Here's a little note. Two nights ago (Jan 31 zulu) I tried to hear Voice of Russia's Moldova transmitter. Nothing on any frequency at any of their times. Last night (Feb 1 zulu) they were present and nicely audible at all published times. What changed? The K-index I suspect. I love the SFI, but spot counting goes back so much farther. We don't have SFI for 300 years. That far back and we're stuck with spots, so we should definitely keep counting for continuity's sake. ;D Here's their schedule with times, kilowatts and target region (for the benefit of others who might want to listen): www.bclnews.it/b10schedules/vor.htmWhat freqs were you trying to receive? They aim at North America with 500,000 watts, so I think you'd hear them if they were broadcasting, especially on 6240kHz. I listen to 80 and 40 meters (3500-4000kHz and 7000-7300kHz) almost every day, but don't recall hearing dead bands. That's pretty rare for the low bands. The low solar activity is primarily affecting propagation above 12mHz or so (MUF depends somewhat on latitude as well as time of day). My guess is that they were off the air for maintenance or technical problems. But you might be right, the propagation might have been short on that night. |
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Post by af4ex on Feb 1, 2011 21:45:39 GMT
@n9aat > I love the SFI, but spot counting goes back so much farther. > We don't have SFI for 300 years. That far back and we're > stuck with spots, so we should definitely keep counting for > continuity's sake. True statements. We can reconstruct SFI using geomagnetic readings back to the 19th century. But we'll keep counting those spots manually forever (or until we figure out how to automate it using Computer Vision algorithms: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision ). :-| |
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Post by af4ex on Feb 2, 2011 0:24:10 GMT
I said:
> My guess is that they were off the air for maintenance or technical
> problems. But you might be right, the propagation might have been
> short on that night.
I think I know what really happened here: they're not following their published schedule, according to Glenn Hauser's SWL report:
"** PRIDNESTROVYE. 6240, Radio PMR, Friday Jan 28 at 2159 playing national anthem, 2200 OC briefly and off. This ``M-F`` service signs off at local midnight Friday into Saturday, while on Sun-Thu it runs until 2400; UT Sunday resuming at 2200, which is the beginning of Monday there. No longer relaying Voice of Russia daily after 0000, apparently moved to 7290, where signal is much worse here (Glenn Hauser, OK, DX LISTENING DIGEST)"
From 0000Z to 0500Z (7PM to midnight here on the East Coast [Florida]) they're supposed to be transmitting on 6240kHz. I just tuned in a few minutes ago, before 0000Z and heard them sign off at exactly 0000Z, with a very strong signal, 60dB over S9. They reappeared at 7290 kHz at the same time, again 60dB over S9 (which means I probably could have heard them even if they were transmitting with 50 watts instead of 500,000)
So I would conclude that this had nothing to do with the K-Index. HF propagation seems to be in pretty good shape, below 10MHz.
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