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Post by lsvalgaard on Aug 11, 2010 14:08:30 GMT
Yes, there is a big point: to show that NOAA and SIDC track each other almost perfectly and that therefore they do NOT USE DIFFERENT counting technique. Just that one uses miles and the other kilometers. If Wolfer You falsely state "The Monthly comparison graph clearly showing the different counting methods." The counting technique is exactly the same, the result is expressed in different units. This is what you are trying to hide. Now, you can regain integrity by changing the text to say "NOAA and SIDC use the same counting technique, but have chosen to express the result in different units. For comparison we reduce them to the same units so you can see how well they track each other". The way it stands now is deceptive [and I believe it is deliberate]. In fact, NOAA uses the Wolfer method and expresses the result on the Wolfer scale [in Wolfer units]. SIDC uses the Wolfer method, but expresses the result on the Wolf scale. Wolfer [using 17 years of simultaneous data] determined that the scale factor between the two scales was 0.6 and was independent of activity: low and high activity had the same scale factor. I'm tempted to repost all my comments here on your site, hoping that you will respect what you said: "Free speech is the backbone of the internet, don't ever think you can stop it." Go for it, I still think you are wrong. They are both kilometers (sunspot number) just that one states a higher value. If Wolfer used 217 years of data that would be different, no one has compared speck activity during a solar grand minimum. No, they are on a different scale. NOAA's number is the simple 10*G + S, like what SIDC also initially has, e.g. today from Catania web.ct.astro.it/sun/draw.jpg . Then SIDC multiplies by 0.6 to make it miles. NOAA does not find 67% more spots than Catania. That NOAA and SIDC at times are slightly different is just the ordinary 'measurement error'. Different observers at different times observing an evolving phenomenon, like counting cars passing under a highway overpass. During a Grand Minimum the spots are all specks [many of them at the limit of visibility, but they still have their magnetic field and terrestrial and cosmic ray effects], so if you don't count them you are artificially biasing the SSN towards zero and get a wrong measure of solar activity. Like counting only naked-eye spots. Nobody is interested in such artificial numbers. We want a real activity measure that we can plug into various formulae that give us satellite drag, pipeline erosion, etc. |
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n3eg
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Post by n3eg on Aug 11, 2010 19:59:44 GMT
A question about the future...
Imagine that some day we have satellites behind the sun which record solar flux and let us view sunspots on the back side. Do you think it would give us numbers that would show a "smoother" view of the sunspot cycle, or would we still have the large variations over every few months?
Or a simpler version - does overall solar activity really vary this much, or are the spots just hiding on the wrong side?
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Post by farkstick on Aug 11, 2010 20:08:17 GMT
A question about the future... Imagine that some day we have satellites behind the sun which record solar flux and let us view sunspots on the back side. Do you think it would give us numbers that would show a "smoother" view of the sunspot cycle, or would we still have the large variations over every few months? We'd need relay stations at the LaGrange points.. |
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Post by lsvalgaard on Aug 11, 2010 20:19:44 GMT
A question about the future... Imagine that some day we have satellites behind the sun which record solar flux and let us view sunspots on the back side. Do you think it would give us numbers that would show a "smoother" view of the sunspot cycle, or would we still have the large variations over every few months? Or a simpler version - does overall solar activity really vary this much, or are the spots just hiding on the wrong side? We already have [had to be precise, because they move] space craft that can view the far side: stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/beacon/beacon_secchi.shtml shows a view of the almost the entire solar surface. The large variations from month to month [day to day, even] are just the way the Sun is. |
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Post by twawki on Aug 12, 2010 12:46:54 GMT
Nobody is interested in such artificial numbers. We want a real activity measure that we can plug into various formulae that give us satellite drag, pipeline erosion, etc. Just a moment - those 'artificial' numbers are historically highly relevant because they are consistent with historical records when people could only see the spots and not measure their magnetic field and cosmic ray effects. |
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Post by lsvalgaard on Aug 12, 2010 14:26:53 GMT
Nobody is interested in such artificial numbers. We want a real activity measure that we can plug into various formulae that give us satellite drag, pipeline erosion, etc. Just a moment - those 'artificial' numbers are historically highly relevant because they are consistent with historical records when people could only see the spots and not measure their magnetic field and cosmic ray effects. Yes, they are very relevant and important, but only because they can form a basis for reconstructing the true solar activity measures. An example: Staudacher observed the sun and produced a series of sunspot drawings covering the years 1749-1796. Rudolf Wolf derived his first version [1857] of the sunspot number from these drawings. They were at the time 'the historical record'. As Wolf collected more records from archives and libraries he realized that the 'historical record' he had derived from Staudacher's drawings were much too low [Staudacher had not drawn small spots, only large ones], so Wolf summarily [after comparing with other observers] in 1861 doubled the values:  So, now we have a new [sacrosanct] set of 'historical records'. Later on [1874] Wolf realized that those numbers were still too small and bumped all his sunspot numbers prior to 1849 [when he started his own observations] up by 25% to yield yet another sacrosanct 'historical record'. Recently I have discovered [ www.leif.org/research/SOHO-23,%20Updating%20the%20Historical%20Sunspot%20Record.pdf ] that all sunspot numbers before 1945 [including the 'historical record'] should be further increased by ~20%. And so on. The historical record is only meaningful when updated to values that are on the same scale as modern values. We want to have a record where SSN=100 in 1780 means the same level of activity as a SSN=100 in 2000, otherwise the old numbers are useless from a scientific point of view. |
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Post by farkstick on Aug 12, 2010 19:23:39 GMT
A question about the future... We already have [had to be precise, because they move] space craft that can view the far side: stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/beacon/beacon_secchi.shtml shows a view of the almost the entire solar surface. The large variations from month to month [day to day, even] are just the way the Sun is. I thought he was talking about L5.. lol |
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Post by hairball on Aug 13, 2010 18:40:41 GMT
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Post by france on Aug 13, 2010 20:42:21 GMT
Hey Leif I thought france was who you think jinki is. I may have been wrong about that. of course you are wrong  I already wrote what I think about the identity of jinki  : he is Simon, Ale, Dalton... an italian who lives in north-east of France and who tooks place of Timo Nimora and who opened his blog after I wrote solarcycle24, 25, 26 will be lower nearest Dalton minimum. A young man who thinks he is the greatest solar scientist of the world, the only one who knows all about solar activity... and who doesn't have any respect to the doctor Leif Svalgaard.  Don't confuse we are not the same person only different personality  I know the same problem on french board, one of the person only mention the articles of Dalton minima to follow solar activity and I'm very desapointed and tired to say Simon is not a scientist, all the stories he wrote aren't the reality of science. But always he shows graphs Simon blog puts on many times per day. A really interminable fiction. It's so tiresome  (for the moment he stopped, may be on holidays  daltonsminima.wordpress.com/2010/08/04/bozza-conoscenza-base-del-sole-3-la-superficie-del-sole/the blog of Jinki alias Simon the new Galileo Galilei  |
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Post by france on Aug 13, 2010 20:59:08 GMT
Yep, france is much more reasonable :-) I think jinki has given herself  away well enough Thank you doctor Svalgaard, you know I've nothing to see about Simon, Ale, Dalton Jinki... a person who misrepresents the reality and Science (hoping that is the only virtual problem he poses) You are a great man and he wants you bury lower than Earth. Thank you for your friendly and humility. Simon doesn't know what that means apparently  On his blog he wrote he is the only scientist who says the truth, all other scientists are nothing. What a pity ;D It's not because he puts a lot of articles on his blog he is a real doctor of science. Quantity doesn't mean quality, it would be too easy. But readers should be wrong that the fact web makes easy. If Simon was more friendly inserting the link of La Terre du Futur (were he read what I write, even if he doesn't want to tell it) on his blog pehaps my estimate would be less knocker. Serious, truth and courtesy help to live in a better way. If la Terre du Futur is not a scientific forum, you are not a scientist too. And more you are rude with real scientists (even if you don't agree with them, when they are older than you, the minimum is to respect longevity of all studies and job they did to help understanding of science) what is bad for their heart (health). But it's perhaps the issue you hope remerbering Timo Nimora  |
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Post by lsvalgaard on Aug 14, 2010 3:06:45 GMT
Hey Leif I thought france was who you think jinki is. I may have been wrong about that. of course you are wrong I already wrote what I think about the identity of jinki Perhaps the hapless and clueless jinki could resolve the mystery for us... |
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jinki
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Post by jinki on Aug 14, 2010 7:47:21 GMT
of course you are wrong I already wrote what I think about the identity of jinki Perhaps the hapless and clueless jinki could resolve the mystery for us... You can be so rude at times Dr. Svalgaard. Your behaviour is no better than those banned here. I am an associate of Geoff Sharp and help him out with his websites and research. He has taught me many things. |
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lku
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Post by lku on Aug 14, 2010 9:23:50 GMT
I just a did a quick add-up of August`s SSNs so far : www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/DSD.txtAnd if every single day in August is zero from the 15th onwards (unlikely), we will still end up at an average SSN of 20. But considering we're likely to see a few more spots, looks like August will be at least 25. And if we get few more 50+ days, then we can easilty make 30 or more. Looks like those who predicted SC24 max of 25 might be eating some humple pie in a few weeks time (I`m one of those!) |
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jinki
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Post by jinki on Aug 14, 2010 10:02:03 GMT
I just a did a quick add-up of August`s SSNs so far : www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/DSD.txtAnd if every single day in August is zero from the 15th onwards (unlikely), we will still end up at an average SSN of 20. But considering we're likely to see a few more spots, looks like August will be at least 25. And if we get few more 50+ days, then we can easilty make 30 or more. Looks like those who predicted SC24 max of 25 might be eating some humple pie in a few weeks time (I`m one of those!) Who predicted SC24 to have a max of 25? Two other points to remember, the monthly sunspot numbers need to be smoothed, plus the recent NOAA values have been artificially raised by the extreme speck ratio. That's why those in the know follow the Layman's Count. |
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Post by lsvalgaard on Aug 14, 2010 11:50:41 GMT
Perhaps the hapless and clueless jinki could resolve the mystery for us... You can be so rude at times Dr. Svalgaard. Your behaviour is no better than those banned here. I am an associate of Geoff Sharp and help him out with his websites and research. He has taught me many things. radun/Vuk claims that jinki is Sharp. Prove that you are not. |
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: he is Simon, Ale, Dalton... an italian who lives in north-east of France and who tooks place of Timo Nimora and who opened his blog after I wrote solarcycle24, 25, 26 will be lower nearest Dalton minimum. A young man who thinks he is the greatest solar scientist of the world, the only one who knows all about solar activity... and who doesn't have any respect to the doctor Leif Svalgaard. 
(for the moment he stopped, may be on holidays 
away well enough
