Solar Cycle 24 Main Discussion IX

[af4ex]

@aoi3620
> I was hoping someone would be willing to let me know if any
> increase in solar activity has been seen within the past
> couple of months. Particularly recently.

It's sort of like the stock market. It goes up and down, but there is a general trend upward, because we're in the growing phase of Solar Cycle 24.

For the past few days it's been going down slightly, but we're expected a big rise, sometime this year, towards a peak which might occur around the year 2014.

But that could all change as we learn more about this very peculiar solar cycle.

Welcome to Solar Cycle 24!

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[lsvalgaard]

Jan 9, 2011 15:38:11 GMT af4ex said:

@theo
> We have an eastern plage with sunspot groups. No number
> yet from NOAA.

Yes, I noticed it yesterday about this time too. Solen has numbered it "S861"
www.solen.info/solar/

Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
[S860] This region emerged in the southwest quadrant on January 7. Location at midnight: S15W24
[S861] A new region emerged in the northeast quadrant on January 8. Location at midnight: N16E52


It seems NOAA/USAF should have numbered it by now. Government bureaucracy?

Weekend?

[af4ex]

@leif
> Weekend?

I hope not. Space weather is important to our national security. I assume that's why the Air Force is in charge of reporting solar activity. I would be surprised if they aren't monitoring it 24/7.

NASA/NOAA is a different story, might be a lot of government bureaucrats there who probably don't work weekends.

:-|

[sigurdur]

You mean some folks don't work on weekends? I want that job!

[af4ex]

Still watching the 10.7 cm solar flux index (SFI):

Penticton
Date MHZ 1700Z 2000Z 2300Z
2011 Jan 2 2800 90 91 90
2011 Jan 3 2800 91 92 92
2011 Jan 4 2800 91 91 89
2011 Jan 5 2800 88 88 87
2011 Jan 6 2800 87 87 87
2011 Jan 7 2800 87 86 86
2011 Jan 8 2800 86 85 84
2011 Jan 9 2800 84 83 82
2011 Jan 10 2800 84 83 83
2011 Jan 11 2800 83 83 82


It had been dropping, from a high plateau of 92. Now stalled around 83 for a few days.

I'm expecting it to drop further since 1140, a powerhouse of activity, has just rotated out of view.

1143, 1145 and 1146 are now the current active regions. Only 1146 has visible spots, but the others are still magnetically active, as you can see below.

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[af4ex]

> I'm expecting it to drop further since 1140, a powerhouse of
> activity, has just rotated out of view.

Observer's Paradox:
Let's assume I'm right and the indices dip further after 1140's "exit". Does this mean the Sun will be "less active"?

Of course not, the 1140 will still be there, on the far side, chugging along as usual. So, from the point of view of the Sun, nothing will have changed.

This has been a "systemic bias" in our reporting scheme for centuries, because we haven't been able to see the far side (until STEREO came along).

It affects "extensive" indices, like sunspot counts, because we're counting only half the surface.

It doesn't affect the "intensive" indices like SFI as much, because they are estimates of total activity.

It's all OK, if we assume that solar activity is balanced such that "Planet X", Earth's invisible twin on the far side, sees approximately the same activity as we do.

The activity is obviously a bit lop-sided from day to day, but it evens out in the long run.

Planet X may not have seen the Carrington event, but it probably had big events that we missed. :-]

I think Dr. S. has actually studied this "imbalanced sun" problem.

[af4ex]

Radio flux is starting to go down again:
Penticton
Date MHZ 1700Z 2000Z 2300Z
2011 Jan 2 2800 90 91 90
2011 Jan 3 2800 91 92 92
2011 Jan 4 2800 91 91 89
2011 Jan 5 2800 88 88 87
2011 Jan 6 2800 87 87 87
2011 Jan 7 2800 87 86 86
2011 Jan 8 2800 86 85 84
2011 Jan 9 2800 84 83 82
2011 Jan 10 2800 84 83 83
2011 Jan 11 2800 83 83 82
2011 Jan 12 2800 80 80 80


... but 1140 actually hasn't completely disappeared. It's right on the limb, and still relatively bright (in mircowaves and x-rays) compared to the other active regions.

So I think the flux will go down even more when 1140 is completely on the far side.

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[THEO BAKALEXIS]

very poor seeing today with medium clouds and mist.

When the weather open for 2-3 minutew take two captures from CaK line to give you today solar situation.

www.solar-007.eu/

[af4ex]

Another big blast at 0350Z from the NE limb, apparently still on the far side. Can't see any EUV magnetic activity on this side.

Observed as a C-class x-ray event on the current x-ray plot, but not reported officially yet by NOAA. Looks like it could have been an M-class if it was facing our way.

Really lights up this 17Ghz radio heliogram from the Nobeyama microwave site. It's the biggest one I've seen.
solar.nro.nao.ac.jp/norh/html/10min/2011/01/14/movie.html

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[af4ex]

Radio flux is starting to go down again:
Penticton
Date MHZ 1700Z 2000Z 2300Z
2011 Jan 2 2800 90 91 90
2011 Jan 3 2800 91 92 92
2011 Jan 4 2800 91 91 89
2011 Jan 5 2800 88 88 87
2011 Jan 6 2800 87 87 87
2011 Jan 7 2800 87 86 86
2011 Jan 8 2800 86 85 84
2011 Jan 9 2800 84 83 82
2011 Jan 10 2800 84 83 83
2011 Jan 11 2800 83 83 82
2011 Jan 12 2800 80 80 80
2011 Jan 13 2800 80 80 79


1140 was still active yesterday, though partially on the far side, keeping the SFI from sinking.

Now I think we've got another powerhouse flare shooter rising on the NE limb, which will probably raise the activity again. Just guessing.

[af4ex]

Yet another farside flare at 1300Z from that NE region, which might be AR1147 some day soon? Ironically it won't be officially recognized as an "active region" until it shows us some spots (which seem to less fashionable these days as solar attire)

Rating will be C1, or maybe B9.9 or such (but remember it's on the far side, so more powerful than the flare reports suggest)

Reminds me of AR1121, another recent powerhouse which started out on the far side, except this one might be more powerful.

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[bradk]

Thare she blows! (to use a mariner quote) Big clean spot turning the corner.

<img src="http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_2048_HMII.jpg">

[af4ex]

Jan 15, 2011 13:22:43 GMT bradk said:

Thare she blows! (to use a mariner quote) Big clean spot turning the corner.

<img src="sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_2048_HMII.jpg">

Brad, on this board you have to use square brackets [] not angle brackets, to post images.
[ img] image.url [ /img] etc (but without the spaces)

There, fixed it for you. Nice spot! A lot like AR1133 [which became AR1140 on its next rotation].

[bradk]

Thanks!

I guess I should also temper my excitement to the extent that this spot is big FOR THIS CYCLE, as we all know this cycle will lead to exciting science because it is so abnormal and the spots are often specks (to use the great Dr's term), but they ain't much to look at!

[George Kominiak]

Hey Guys!

Check out SOHO's "Pick of the Week" for an overlay view of the CME activity which took place on 13-14 Jan.

It's at: sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/pickoftheweek/

G.