Collapsing Grids: Are all CME's created equal

[misselis]

I am trying to limit the scope my research to a reasonable "need-to-know" base before I either wind up with
1. so much data that I could have another degree
or
2. too little data that I'm found hidden away needlessly in bunker w/a solar-storm-survival kit.

There is a wide range of info, I prefer to draw my own conclusions based on facts laid out in research or at least reason by trusted sources. It would seem scientists like Richards, Hathaway, and Guhathakurta are good sources but it is almost impossible to find something in between their canned general public statements or their published journal studies.

I've read enough to appreciate the general risk, relative unpredictability, and broad range of variables influencing the potential impact of a solar event and solar weather; from forecasting cycle intensity, determining regional risk-level (surface irradiance at any moment in time) as a function of atmospheric vulnerability, to the direction even a CME will travel (9/12/2010 STEREO), I realize, some degree of uncertainty are unavoidable.

There are, however, predictors: specific variables of solar weather that indicate a greater sign of trouble than others. I was hoping someone would tell me where I can learn specifically about them and how they are measured.

For example, the recent C4 CME in November did not pose much of a threat but it would have if it was an X-level, like the '89 Hydro-Quebec. But what the heck is the C or X actually measuring- what does that mean in terms of a blown generator? And if that is the best classification of solar trouble, why didn't anything crash during the October 28, 2003 X17 CME?

I also understand that X-rays only account for an even smaller fraction of the total energy of possible disruptive forces from a CME but which ones do we need to be concerned about? How, where, and when are they measured or estimated... and is there any real predictive indicators to keep an eye on for a reg gal like me?

So here are my questions (and I love data links so feel free to summarize & link me away to details):
1. What measurement/ index system best measures either the general intensity or the radiation output of a solar flare/ CME specific to the risks posed to our electric power grids? In other words: of the solar weather "rating" scales, which is (are) the best indicator(s) of those variables most likely to interfere with electronic gadgets and our power grids?
2. what is the generally agreed to threshold of "worry". In other words fill-in the sentence: the sun has to emit an ______ that hit earth before it could do the damage caused on a 1989 Quebec level and an __________ before it could actually take out North America's entire grid.


I just want to set my solar storm warning alerts to the right kinds of alerts- to know as far as possible in advance (2-3 three days) if I have to just go
to the grocery store for a few extra non-perishables & batteries, a lot of them, as many as I can afford.... or
just go straight to [glow=red,2,300]church[/glow] and forget shopping altogether...
Thanks-
elissa.

[rangertab1]

Elissa, you ask questions that most folks ask themselves, from time to time throughout history. One of my first posts was similar to yours. Ultimately, live with common sense and courage and hope and you will be fine.

No one can know with certainty the answers to your questions and the professionals on this forum have not the time nor energy to speculate. Within this forum is a mountain of wisdom and data with links to links to more data. I gather that the scientists on this site filter mega amounts of information and, should you be patient, share in their wisdom when appropriate.

Enjoy the data journey that this forum provides.

[misselis]

Rangertab1- thank you.
In a strange way, the kindness in your response did more to alleviate my worry with a simple recognition than a mountain of science.
Sincerely- there are details so simple that they risk being forgotten.. treating each other gently should never be one-


"....one must take what nature gives as one finds it. But there is also such a thing as a spirit of the times, an attitude of mind characteristic of a particular generation, which is passed on from individual to individual and gives its distinctive mark to a society. Each of us has to do his little bit toward transforming this spirit of the times. "
Albert Einstein, 1954

I like this "mark", rangertab, don't you? I will pass it forward in kindness and on by example.

[rangertab1]

If I may be permitted to complete this discussion without loosing focus of the Sun, imagine the year 1954 and all that had recently occured. Albert's life experiences, some would argue, were greater than most of ours. Less than 10 years prior, the entire world was at war. A grand war with machines and technological discoveries that have evolved since.

I often think of the situation of the world during and following WWII and wonder the thoughts that so many millions of humans struggled with, let alone the new scientific discoveries that came about. So many unknowns and fears and fantastics. The conversations and explainations parents must have had with their innocent children were seasoned with great peril, yet all common sense pointed to a new and different age in humanity. Hope was all that many folks had.

Remembering that man was to blame for all of those issues and dealings, as man is to blame for all of the issues and dealings of today. Our Sun, however, cannot be blamed or challenged and will do what it was designed to do, no matter our concerns. It is one of our greatest interests, though governed by no man. Technology has allowed us to view and understand it beyond what even Albert could concieve. Simply, I gained a healthy appreciation for it many years ago when I anxiously anticipated its rising after frigid nights away from any techno-heating luxuries. We called it the Giant Heat Tab in the sky.

As I said, there is wisdom on this forum and I am glad you and I have found it. I see you are near my age and I hope the balance of life has been and will be in good favor with you.

How you heard of this forum is not known to me, but I was told by a very kind and brilliant scientist that Dr. Svalgaard is a man of integrity and honesty and this website should be visited. I like it and have learned it's customs and personalities and plan to visit its postings regularly.

Thanks for seeing kindness in me. I have not always enjoyed such compliments.

Peace and love to you and all those who enjoy the higher curiousities of this life we all share.

Cheers to the Sun!

[misselis]

seek and ye shall find....
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just what I wanted .... Merry Christmas to me and you and anyone who else who might need to go grocery shopping and fill up the tank before a storm... just in case.

[bop]

Don't forget ARTIS and it's mobile equivalent, MARTIS...

solarimg.org/artis for the main one and....
soarimg.org/m for the mobile version. Looks good on my iPhone.

[kelken]

Nowhere is the paradox of progress more extreme than in the case of the power grid. Without it we are defenseless unless you are fully self sustainable.
On March 13, 1989, two solar blasts, each about a tenth the size of the Carrington(1888)Event knocked out the Hydro-Quebec electrical utility causing a complete shutdown in 92 seconds. This event should serve as a wake up call and it did for a time with the NASA launch of ACE in 1997. Ace specifically sits about a million miles away where the Earth's gravitational field balances with that of the sun(a gravity well). ACE gives 24/7 coverage of the solar wind parameters & solar energetic particle intensities.
ACE gives power grid operators just enough lead time to quick start ead units, shut down transformers and reroute power loads. But ACE was designed to last 5 years and we are going on 12 with no replacement with the exception of STEREO from NASA.
But with the history like the Carrington event, Magnetic Storm of 1921 and 1989 Hydro-Quebec outage, Halloween 2003.... you would think that we would take heed to the warnings about this cycle though slow to ramp this cycle is very well capable of downing grids according to NASA's THEMIS launch in 2008. Consensus among the space physicists that analyzed the data was that the Earth's armor should make for the strongest geomagnetic storms in history, storms that will blast us with doses of solar radiation that will fry our infrastracture as we know it.
"This kind of influx [of potentially dangerous solar wind particles blowing through this gigantic new hole in our protective magnetic shield] is an order of magnitude greater than we ever thought possible," reports Wenhu Li, a space physicist at the University of New Hampshire who was part of the team that analyzed the NASA data. "The more the particles, the more the storm, It is the perfect sequence for a really big event."

[rangertab1]

self sustainable

This is the conclusion. Nothing else is feasible, affordable, or willingnessable. Ideally, there is hope that many 'selfs' make up a larger group that work together and return some level of food, commerce, entertainment, security, and education to the local community, wherever one may be. We will carry on, even with smaller electrical local-grids, producing enough for a few dozen/hundred households, eventually. The question of WHEN is beyond us all, so i watch and wait.



The Carrington Event was 1859, not 1888. Thanks for your interest in the subject. I always found it ironic that such an event as the Carrington went by without much pause to the greater powers that be. Recall, the American Civil War drums continued to pound, even though the night skies light up like nothing ever seen by our fellow coutrymen. Perhaps, the next event will be more respected, retrospectively.

[hunterson]

Jan 20, 2011 20:28:26 GMT rangertab1 said:

self sustainable

This is the conclusion. Nothing else is feasible, affordable, or willingnessable. Ideally, there is hope that many 'selfs' make up a larger group that work together and return some level of food, commerce, entertainment, security, and education to the local community, wherever one may be. We will carry on, even with smaller electrical local-grids, producing enough for a few dozen/hundred households, eventually. The question of WHEN is beyond us all, so i watch and wait.



The Carrington Event was 1859, not 1888. Thanks for your interest in the subject. I always found it ironic that such an event as the Carrington went by without much pause to the greater powers that be. Recall, the American Civil War drums continued to pound, even though the night skies light up like nothing ever seen by our fellow coutrymen. Perhaps, the next event will be more respected, retrospectively.

What I have wondered if there is not some sort of conservation of activity rule- where the sun makes up for quiet periods by high level events?
Until the recent past, these could have gone by without notice.