vk4fo
New Member
Posts: 3
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Post by vk4fo on Jan 13, 2011 0:42:29 GMT
Has anyone noticed the similarity between Solar Cycle 23 and Solar Cycle 4. Both are of similar length and decay rate along with other similarities. If one looks at Solar Cycle 5, it appears almost identical to current Solar Cycle 24 thus far.
Is there a possibility that we may be about to experience a repeat of the Dalton Minimum ?
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bradk
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 199
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Post by bradk on Jan 13, 2011 8:14:50 GMT
I've lurked here a long time, and the consensus has gone from people laughing, or stating the data was way too preliminary two years ago to now many folks agreeing that something weird is going on. Dr. Svalgaard started to even comment on the possibility of a grand minimum in the last months, when prior he would sometimes argue against it. The Livingston and Penn data seems the key if I understand the discourse - will the average sunspot become less magnetically active until they dissappear visually, or not? www.leif.org/research/Livingston%20and%20Penn.png |
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dh7fb
New Member
Posts: 25
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Post by dh7fb on Jan 13, 2011 12:06:42 GMT
A comparison of the former 23 SC'ss with SC 24 you can find here: www.dh7fb.de/ssnano/image003.gif . The basis is a calculated "average Solarcycle" with the means of the monthly ssn's of the SC 1...23. It looks so: www.dh7fb.de/ssnano/image002.gif . After calculating the monthly anomalies one can calculate the sumation and so we can see the weak take off of the SC24 in relation to the other cycles. Only cycles 5,6,7 were weaker, the cycles of the Dalton. |
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bradk
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 199
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Post by bradk on Jan 13, 2011 12:40:54 GMT
Thank you for the chart.
Can we estimate the weakness on entry into the Maunder Minimum based on any data set or proxy therefor? Just curious, as the sunspot record seems weak, but could indicate an very fast fall into spotlessness.
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Post by lsvalgaard on Jan 13, 2011 14:27:02 GMT
Thank you for the chart. Can we estimate the weakness on entry into the Maunder Minimum based on any data set or proxy therefor? Just curious, as the sunspot record seems weak, but could indicate an very fast fall into spotlessness. A problem with all these comparisons is that the sunspot number for cycles before about 1825 is highly uncertain, to perhaps a factor of two. |
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Post by randwick on Jan 28, 2011 5:31:21 GMT
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I though the various observatories and observers had a "count rating "to apply to their methods
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