10.7 CM 2011 SOLAR FLUX PREDICTION CHART

[g3lmo]

Having looked at the solar flux figures graph many times again, it does seem that the average (up to now) is taking a definite established slope (ignoring the highish blip in Jan/Feb, and the lowish blip in July/Aug) somewhat below the predicted levels. Any thoughts yet on this please? Although 20 mtr trans atlantic conditions (G3LMO to ZF1PM 14.337 MHz at 1300Z) have improved markedly over last few days now.

[af4ex]

g3lmo
> Having looked at the solar flux figures graph many times again,
> it does seem that the average (up to now) is taking a definite
> established slope (ignoring the highish blip in Jan/Feb, and the
> lowish blip in July/Aug) somewhat below the predicted levels.
> Any thoughts yet on this please?

It helps to draw a chart. Are you suggesting the slope of the chart below?

I expect the SFI to hit 100 this year and go higher later as it approaches a peak around 2014. Of course, this is all speculation based on previous cycle behaviors and predictions from folks like Dr. Svalgaard, our SC24 mentor.

John/af4ex

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[g3lmo]

Hello John

It helps to draw a chart???

But I am looking at the chart......I don't need to draw one.

Yes......I am exactly looking at THAT slope.

I should hope we would see the SFI reach 100 in 2011........But by observing the chart we should have been there already.

See what I'm saying?

So is it going to be ammended? And based on what now???

A much lower AND later SC24 peak perhaps?

73

Nev
Vale of Pewsey

[af4ex]

@nev
> So is it going to be ammended? And based on what
> now???
>
> A much lower AND later SC24 peak perhaps?

There are several official and semi-official predictions from NASA and NOAA. This WUWT blog article attempts to list them all (but even the author got confused in the process):
wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/27/nasas-sunspot-prediction-roller-coaster/

It started off in 2006 with NASA predicting a very large cycle 24:
science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2006/21dec_cycle24/

Currently NOAA seems to be going with the ISES prediction which has the SN index hitting 90 in 2013

Dr. Svalgaard made his own predition, before the cycle started, based on his own analysis of solar magnetism, which seems to be more accurate so far than the others. It's about 20 points lower than the NOAA SN prediction and peaks 2014 or later.

I redrew (by hand) the NOAA chart using the prediction of Dr. S. It is a much better extrapolation of the current situation. See Main Discussion on Dec 19, page 36:
solarcycle24com.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=1306&page=36

Also more discussion on (comparing to Cycle 14) Jan 7, page 40:
solarcycle24com.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=1306&page=40

[AD6AA]

Jan 14, 2011 13:20:13 GMT g3lmo said:

Having looked at the solar flux figures graph many times again, it does seem that the average (up to now) is taking a definite established slope (ignoring the highish blip in Jan/Feb, and the lowish blip in July/Aug) somewhat below the predicted levels. Any thoughts yet on this please?

I too have looked many times at this chart. It seems way too consistent the last few months. If it stays like this the cycle will be way low at its peak. I'm expecting more of the wide swings to start up and the peak to be higher than what it seems to be with the last few months of data. BUT STILL LOWER than the chart prediction.

Perhaps the active region coming around will give us some very high activity.

Mike
AD6AA

[bradk]

I am still betting on a very low cycle, cycle 5 might overshoot this thing.

[g3lmo]

Something is not 'going to Plan A'......That's for sure.

Nev
Vale of Pewsey
UK

[randwick]

.
The average vector is a good indicator , when it start heading down , the inflection point is reached , that's ~ a quarter of a symmetrical system .

getting the maximum is then easy

[af4ex]

The SFI has been holding steady around 80 for the past two days. Here are the Penticton readings. The middle reading is the official 'noon' 2800 Mhz reading, the other two are taken 3 hours before and after (1700Z 2000Z ('Noon') 2300Z):

2011 Jan 12 2800 80 80 80
2011 Jan 13 2800 80 80 79
2011 Jan 14 2800 80 79 79
2011 Jan 15 2800 81 80 81
2011 Jan 16 2800 81 80 80
2011 Jan 17 2800 81 82 82
2011 Jan 18 2800 83 81 81
2011 Jan 19 2800 81 81 81
2011 Jan 20 2800 83 82 82
2011 Jan 21 2800 87 88 87
2011 Jan 22 2800 88 88 87
2011 Jan 23 2800 86 84 84
2011 Jan 24 2800 82 83 82
2011 Jan 25 2800 82 81 81

2011 Jan 26 2800 80 80 80
2011 Jan 27 2800 80 81 80

My guess is that SFI will head up again as the future 1150 and other old regions rotate into full view.

[bradk]

Under 80 again!

[af4ex]

> ... under 80 ...

Yes, activity still drooping, no sign of that 'spike'.

But the extreme ultra-violet 304A readings do seem to be perking up a bit. And they're important for radio propagation issues because of their influence in ionizing the upper layers of our atmosphere.

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[bradk]

This cycle is becoming predictable in that you cannot underestimate it based on our traditional measures of activty - this is one low cycle.

[kd7dcr]

;D

IT, the cycle 24, seems to have woke up...

let's give it chance to show us whats up...these coming 3 months, then it might be time for picking a "high" value...

I'm with Thomas down in Fla ... SN 95 during late 2013.