N9AAT
Level 3 Rank
DON'T PANIC
Posts: 153
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Post by N9AAT on Feb 15, 2011 22:48:40 GMT
Oh, for tomorrow morning. What's the best way to tell when the big waves hit? And when can we know the polarity of the cloud? Any suggestions other than watching the A and K?
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Post by france on Feb 15, 2011 22:57:13 GMT
It would be interesting to see a table of historical M and X class flares (ordered by magnitude) that produced earthbound CME's, along with the maximum Kp they produced. Any ideas anyone? We studied this question some time ago: www.leif.org/research/1859%20Storm%20-%20Extreme%20Space%20Weather.pdfThe current storm is not of a magnitude that compares with the real 'superstorms'. Much depends on the orientation of the magnetic field. From the polarities of the spots I would guess the field would be northwards at the leading edge followed by weak southward several hours later, so the storm would start small and perhaps stay small: Kp = 5-6. thank you for the work Dr Svalgaard, you were Japaneese for it  |
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Post by Maui on Feb 15, 2011 23:37:34 GMT
Whew--crashing web browser; high water at high tide with high wind; 4.3 earthquake in Chile; and incoming cometary dust and data!
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bradk
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 199
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Post by bradk on Feb 16, 2011 1:04:10 GMT
Dead black night on the northern horizon...
if the glow returns, I will try to remember pics.
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Post by rangertab1 on Feb 16, 2011 1:08:08 GMT
I have been informed that the 7 Sept 2005 flare was the second highest flare ever classified. Also, 2005 (a minimum year) had so many X Class flares, solar physicists hypothesized about the high activity of SC24. Dr. Svalgaard, do you recall some of the chatter reference the Sun's behavior in 2005, particularly after September? For anyone wanting to crunch some flare numbers from 1975 til present (GOES) and from 1968-1974 ( SOLRAD), below is the link. www.ngdc.noaa.gov/nndc/struts/results?t=102827&s=25&d=8,230,9 Respect and enjoy the show, my friends. |
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Post by Bob k6tr on Feb 16, 2011 1:39:45 GMT
The Solar Flux is down a couple of points but still a great deal higher than we have seen in the past. The Sunspot Count is up another 10 points based upon the growth of Region 1161. The SDO EVE reading is holding steady in the Mid 210s
SFI.......................111
Sunspot Count......100
SDO EVE..............216
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Post by lsvalgaard on Feb 16, 2011 1:41:36 GMT
another M-flare underway...
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Post by lsvalgaard on Feb 16, 2011 1:43:38 GMT
We studied this question some time ago: www.leif.org/research/1859%20Storm%20-%20Extreme%20Space%20Weather.pdfThe current storm is not of a magnitude that compares with the real 'superstorms'. Much depends on the orientation of the magnetic field. From the polarities of the spots I would guess the field would be northwards at the leading edge followed by weak southward several hours later, so the storm would start small and perhaps stay small: Kp = 5-6. thank you for the work Dr Svalgaard, you were Japaneese for it I was visiting professor at the University of Nagoya, Japan. ;D |
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Post by Bob k6tr on Feb 16, 2011 1:44:50 GMT
another M-flare underway... It's running out of gas. |
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Post by vk2fdxr on Feb 16, 2011 1:51:50 GMT
It would be a real disappointment if the SFI dropped back into the 70's  but 1161 did grow a fair bit. |
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Post by af4ex on Feb 16, 2011 2:20:17 GMT
Looks like a crescendo. Waiting for the high note. :-| Attachments:
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Post by davidwild on Feb 16, 2011 2:41:59 GMT
NOAA issued an A>20 watch for Feb 18 -- seems a long way off but I assume this is for the X2.2?
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Post by jcarels on Feb 16, 2011 7:32:43 GMT
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Post by lsvalgaard on Feb 16, 2011 7:46:18 GMT
another M-flare: M1.1
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bigbud
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 180
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Post by bigbud on Feb 16, 2011 11:53:50 GMT
Yes, the region has now rotated enough to the west that we are beginning to be in magnetic field lines connected back to the site. Hi Leif, could you explain this further for us novices? Is the proton-flux that vukcevich is showing similar to this? www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/Epam_7d.gifAnd is this proton-activity somehow connected with the flares/CMEs we just had? BB |
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but 1161 did grow a fair bit.
) That is off the charts, so I am asking a question to you all.