kp5
New Member
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Post by kp5 on Feb 18, 2011 2:54:49 GMT
The CME has just hit. As predicted it started out with northward field And as predicted I'm stuck under thick cloud! What do you think regarding the potential duration of this geo-storm Leif? And also, Do you think the eruption related to the X-class flare gobbled up the earlier 2 eruptons en route to earth??? Or do you think it's possible this disturbance we see starting at 1240UT is related to the M6 flare? Incredible length of travelling time if so. It would be nearly 105 hours if my maths is up to scratch  thanks p.s I love your work, it really has inspired me. |
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Post by lsvalgaard on Feb 18, 2011 3:04:45 GMT
The CME has just hit. As predicted it started out with northward field And as predicted I'm stuck under thick cloud! What do you think regarding the potential duration of this geo-storm Leif? And also, Do you think the eruption related to the X-class flare gobbled up the earlier 2 eruptons en route to earth??? Or do you think it's possible this disturbance we see starting at 1240UT is related to the M6 flare? Incredible length of travelling time if so. It would be nearly 105 hours if my maths is up to scratch p.s I love your work, it really has inspired me. with so may flares and CMEs it is hard to say at this time, but I'm sure the events will be analyzed to death in the coming months. It is very likely that they are all bunched up. |
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bradk
Level 3 Rank
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Post by bradk on Feb 18, 2011 6:09:44 GMT
All clouds to the north here too, kp5. Darn our luck!
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Post by Bob k6tr on Feb 18, 2011 6:36:33 GMT
The CME has just hit. As predicted it started out with northward field Well done ! Now only if it will stay that way. There is a Big International HF Competition this weekend. If it stays North the Bands although Slightly Degraded will recover quickly. If it swings south it is Good Night Charlie ! |
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Post by af4ex on Feb 18, 2011 12:55:13 GMT
1158 was still king of solar activity yesterday while 1161 was quietly staging an 'uprising'. Today 1161 seems to be in charge. There were two M-flares around 1000Z, apparently 1161, but NOAA doesn't list the source and SDO videos haven't caught up either. I cropped this 171A EUV video of the 'uprising', which you can see seems to be right word to describe the huge area above the right spot, which seems to boil up out of nowhere. This all occurred from 0700Z to 2330Z yesterday.  I'm guessing that new sub-region of 1161 now has a big black spot (or two) and is seething with magnetic activity, fueling the overall solar actiivty. Good thing because 1158 will soon rotate out of view. [edit: Apparently this new hot spot has been declared a new region: AR11162. More details when SDO publishes the lastest video] |
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Post by guigui1984 on Feb 18, 2011 13:13:46 GMT
The Polarity of the magnetic Field reverse South and the solar wind is around 600km/sec.
if the conditions continues, instability increasing and Kp6-7 is not impossible.
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Post by Kevin VE3EN on Feb 18, 2011 13:33:31 GMT
M6.6 Flare took place around the northern region. M1.4 took place around Sunspot 1158 in the south.  |
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Post by af4ex on Feb 18, 2011 14:31:30 GMT
Kp5 magnetic storm -- intense but brief. ACE shows more high-speed wind to come. Attachments:
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Post by af4ex on Feb 18, 2011 14:33:23 GMT
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arjan
New Member
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Post by arjan on Feb 18, 2011 14:53:20 GMT
SDO EVE shows the M6.6 at 10:10UTC in 1158. Goes xray graph shows a bump after the main event around M1 level. In the SDO EVE image from 10:30UTC you see that this is a separate flare from the new area above 1161. Attachments:
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arjan
New Member
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Post by arjan on Feb 18, 2011 14:54:31 GMT
As you can see here. Attachments:
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Post by af4ex on Feb 18, 2011 14:59:28 GMT
arjanGood snapshots. 1162 quickly rose to dominance. The two northern regions, 1161 and 1162, seem to promise a lot more activity. [Can't really tell them apart in x-ray] Attachments:
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Post by af4ex on Feb 18, 2011 15:51:00 GMT
Now dimuendo, with a regular beat (skipping the second and third beats). Paraphrasing Yogi Berra: all of this rhythmic activity would probably make a lot of sense if we knew what it meant. :-| Attachments:
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Post by lsvalgaard on Feb 18, 2011 15:57:30 GMT
Kp5 magnetic storm -- intense but brief. ACE shows more high-speed wind to come. Kp 5 is not particularly intense. As the magnetic field in the CME was predicted to point northwards we would only expect a moderate storm [as we got]. If a CME from the region in the northern hemisphere hits us in three days the effect should be much larger as its field is pointing south. |
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kp5
New Member
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Post by kp5 on Feb 18, 2011 16:45:14 GMT
Kp 5 is not particularly intense. Yup, pipped at the post by a boring old coronal hole wind stream (ch435). I wonder if that ch is still alive, the last two rotations it has served the dx crowd and the aurora hunters well. Now dimuendo, with a regular beat (skipping the second and third beats). Paraphrasing Yogi Berra: all of this rhythmic activity would probably make a lot of sense if we knew what it meant. :-| The developing pattern on the 5 minute x-ray looks very pretty indeed, certainly rhythmic. Attachments:
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