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Post by af4ex on Feb 11, 2011 3:08:04 GMT
It stopped raining in Nobeyama long enough for me to grab a few microwave images to try to figure out what's going on with the high flux reports. I think I see what's going on. 1). 1153 is still influencing the SFI. In the image below you can still see the microwave (17Ghz) glow from 1153, even though it's rotated to the far side. Microwaves are generated from magnetic action high in the corona. The 2.8Ghz stuff probably even higher than the 17Ghz. 2). There are more magnetically active regions than officially reported. NOAA/USAF currently only lists 1156 and 1157, but there are at least four more that are radiating microwaves and have distinct 'beta' (bipolar) patterns in the magnetograms. These regions produce microwaves, which you can see in the Nobeyama image below. So I think this activity is at least partially responsible for keeping the SFI around 90. Some of these may get recognized officially, but only if they develop visible spots. Perhaps a taste of the future, if the L&P effect becomes reality, the SN will be hovering around zero while the SFI goes into the 90's, like today. (The Sun looks almost spotless, except for 1156.) Attachments:
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Post by lsvalgaard on Feb 11, 2011 3:11:33 GMT
It stopped rainging in Nobeyama long enough for me to grab a few microwave images to try to figure out what's going on with the high flux reports. I think I see what's going on. 1). 1153 is still influencing the SFI. In the image below you can still see the microwave (17Ghz) glow from 1153, even though it's rotated to the far side. Microwaves are generated from magnetic action high in the corona. The 2.8Ghz stuff probably even higher than the 17Ghz. 2). There are more magnetically active regions than officially reported. NOAA/USAF currently only lists 1156 and 1157, but there are at least four more than are radiated microwaves and have distinct 'beta' patterns in the magnetograms. These regions produce microwaves, which you can see in the Nobeyama image. So I think this activity is at least partially responsible for keeping the SFI around 90. Some of these may get recognized officially, but only if they develop visible spots. Perhaps a taste of the future, if the L&P effect becomes reality, the SN will be hovering around zero while the SFI goes into the 90's, like today. (The Sun looks almost spotless, except for 1156.) NOAA only numbers a region if there is a spot in it which has been seen by more than one observer, lived for more than 12 hours [and a few other criteria]. We might see this happen more and more often, and NOAA might rethink what to number... |
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Feb 11, 2011 19:19:53 GMT
I have been rather busy doing other things for the past six months or so, and I have fallen a bit behind the times as far as the L & P effect is going. I am aware of Dr. Svalgaard's page that shows the affect appears to be consistently following the course predicted by L & P. But I was wondering if there has been anything published concerning:
1. Possible causes.
2. Possible affects other then the observed weakening of SS magnetic fields to the point where most of them will disappear in a few years, and subdued solar activity in general.
3. Whether or not the process is likely to be a part of a long term (grand) solar minimum...
I have not seen an aurora this year, and I don't live all that far from the Arctic circle...
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Post by france on Feb 11, 2011 19:48:36 GMT
I noticed 1156 et 1157 groups are almost at the same longitude at equal distance from equator each one and the new regions are so well located on the same longitude to equal distance from 1156 et 1157 and more at the same latitude yearsterday sfu was down (89) today it's up (91)  |
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Post by af4ex on Feb 11, 2011 20:50:34 GMT
I noticed 1156 et 1157 groups are almost at the same longitude at equal distance from equator each one and the new regions are so well located on the same longitude to equal distance from 1156 et 1157 and more at the same latitude yearsterday sfu was down (89) today it's up (91) If the Sun were the complex plane then these spots could be called conjugate pairs .  en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complex_conjugateIt does seem to me that recently these regions have been evolving at a faster pace, most likely a natural progression of SC24. I wouldn't be surprised to learn that laws of symmetry also govern this progression. |
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Post by france on Feb 11, 2011 20:54:44 GMT
and more a coronal hole above each region |
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Post by af4ex on Feb 12, 2011 0:27:41 GMT
The old 1147/1149 has rotated into view. Not sure if I've labeled them correctly, but 1149 used to be south of 1147. I'm calling those four symmetrical regions the "gang of four". But NOAA hasn't gotten around to naming them all, so I'm using Jan Alvestad's "Solen" numbers to identify two of them: 1156,1157,S873,S874. Solen has also identified S875 but not the big region below it (  ?). NOAA better get cracking and number these regions. These groups are keeping the SFI high, especially S873, which has a big UV-superspot and is glowing very brightly in microwaves right now, and will probably start flaring soon. The rest are much dimmer. SFI is managing to stay high. Penticton 1700Z, 2000Z, 2300Z: 2011 Feb 7 2800 82 82 82 2011 Feb 8 2800 91 90 91 2011 Feb 9 2800 90 89 88 2011 Feb 10 2800 91 91 90 2011 Feb 11 2800 92 91 91 (!) Attachments:
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Post by af4ex on Feb 12, 2011 0:57:38 GMT
It just quit raining at Nobeyama, so now we can clearly see S873, which is shining brightly in 17Ghz microwaves. There was a B9.6 flare around 1130Z, which I think was S873, but Nobeyama was obscured by rain at the time, so could not postively ID the source of the event. Attachments:
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Post by af4ex on Feb 12, 2011 1:04:47 GMT
Solar Region Summary just arrived
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 11/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1156 S21W06 068 0040 Cro 07 05 Beta
1157 N18W04 065 0010 Bxo 05 02 Beta
1158 S19E25 036 0040 Cro 05 05 Beta
1159 N18E26 035 0010 Axx 01 02 Alpha
So S873 will now be known as "1158"
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Post by af4ex on Feb 12, 2011 1:40:16 GMT
1158's conjugate spot 1159 suddenly got brighter. Hard to believe these regions are not coordinated somehow. Attachments:
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Post by af4ex on Feb 12, 2011 2:08:02 GMT
... it keeps getting better. A flare from old 1149 on the east limb. I suspect the higher HF ham bands will soon begin to wake up. :-] Attachments:
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Post by af4ex on Feb 12, 2011 12:59:36 GMT
The Gang of Four is now Six. A regular design is emerging that is reminiscent of Chladni Patterns, which are standing wave nodes on a vibrating plate. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ernst_ChladniChladni was an 18th century physicist who created similar patterns by sprinkling flour and sand on wooden, metal and glass plates and rubbed the edge with a violin bow to resonate the plate. The particles tend to accumulate at standing wave nodes where the waves and their reflections cancel out. I think this phenomenon is consistent with several solar sunspot theories, based on sonic waves bouncing around inside the sun.  Dr. Svalgaard, is that what is going on here? Attachments:
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Post by lsvalgaard on Feb 12, 2011 14:25:51 GMT
The Gang of Four is now Six. A regular design is emerging that is reminiscent of Chladni Patterns, which are standing wave nodes on a vibrating plate. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ernst_ChladniChladni was an 18th century physicist who created similar patterns by sprinkling flour and sand on wooden, metal and glass plates and rubbed the edge with a violin bow to resonate the plate. The particles tend to accumulate at standing wave nodes where the waves and their reflections cancel out. I think this phenomenon is consistent with several solar sunspot theories, based on sonic waves bouncing around inside the sun. Dr. Svalgaard, is that what is going on here? No, but there are such standing waves in the Sun. In fact, about a million of them at any given time. They form the basis for Helioseismology. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helioseismologysolar-center.stanford.edu/heliopage.htmlThe waves do not create the sunspots. The waves are sound waves generated by the ever-present convection [like the sound of boiling water]. |
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Post by THEO BAKALEXIS on Feb 12, 2011 14:39:35 GMT
I`m coming back from athens, greece after a long time guys. Very Poor seeing but i make the best proccessing as i can. We have four regions right now on solar surface and one more plage at northeast limb. Four regions has trapezoid schema and they have all sunspots. I have some B/W pics here in CaK line.    www.solar-007.eu/ |
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Post by af4ex on Feb 12, 2011 15:22:23 GMT
@theo > Four regions has trapezoid schema and they have all sunspots. Hi Theo, welcome back. You are calling them trapezoids, which I guess is more correct. But I think of them as rectangles mapped onto a sphere. In any case, your images are superb examples of what you can see using the ultraviolet Calcium K lines (~3950A): sungazer.net/cak/calciumk1.htmlAmazing what amateur observers can do these days, thanks to modern technology. I now see seven nodes which fit my (purely empirical) "standing wave" Chladni pattern*. Maybe an eighth node will pop up in the red oval soon? :-| *France, merci de remarquer la tendance! Attachments:
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?).
