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Post by af4ex on Feb 12, 2011 15:29:10 GMT
@leif
> The waves do not create the sunspots. The waves are sound
> waves generated by the ever-present convection [like the
> sound of boiling water].
Two questions:
1) Are there any interactions between sunspots and helioseisms? For example, would a standing wave node somehow facilitate or enable the formation of a sunspot? (By offering a path of least resistance or conduit for magnetic tubes etc)
2) How else can this current "Chladni-like" pattern be explained? Purely coincendental grouping of sunspots?
Thanks for the helio-seismology links.
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Post by lsvalgaard on Feb 12, 2011 16:16:50 GMT
@leif > The waves do not create the sunspots. The waves are sound > waves generated by the ever-present convection [like the > sound of boiling water]. Two questions: 1) Are there any interactions between sunspots and helioseisms? For example, would a standing wave node somehow facilitate or enable the formation of a sunspot? (By offering a path of least resistance or conduit for magnetic tubes etc) 2) How else can this current "Chladni-like" pattern be explained? Purely coincendental grouping of sunspots? Thanks for the helio-seismology links. 1) no, it is the other way around: a big sunspot disturbs the waves. 2) coincidence, but nice looking |
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Post by af4ex on Feb 12, 2011 19:56:30 GMT
FYI, there was a C2.6 flare around 1500Z, which was unattributed for awhile, so I spent time looking at SDO EUV videos, trying to figure out which one of the "Gang of Seven" was to blame. In the meantime, NOAA amended their report and listed 1159 as the source. I agree, there were a series of flashes from 1159 at around that time. But 1157, 1159's nearest neighbor to the west also emitted flashes _virtually simultaneously_, but on a smaller scale. So I would agree 1159 was the major culprit, but 1157 was certainly an accomplice. See for yourself, below. It's an animated GIF. You might have to download it to see the animation. [Had to hack my own "subfield video" from the SDO AIA 304A video, with VirtualDub, to make it small enough to load as an attachment] The simultaneous eruptions also strengthen my belief that there is some underlying _global_ process taking place here. But apparently there is no known mechanism to explain these strange "Chladni patterns" and simul-flare events. :-| [edit: Hmm, for some reason animated GIF's flicker badly in the thumbnail preview. But it's flicker-free if you download it and view it locally. I won't upload animations like this anymore. Sorry for the annoyance] [edit2: That flicker was so annoying, that I decided to delete and re-post, renaming the attached file to .giff. So, download the file and rename it to .gif to view the animation of C2.6 flare ]  [edit3: This time for sure. I'll post the animation as an image. Hopefully not too annoying this way]  Attachments:
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Post by af4ex on Feb 12, 2011 21:08:37 GMT
The 9AM and Noon reports are in from Penticton.
Penticton 1700Z, 2000Z, 2300Z:
2011 Feb 7 2800 82 82 82
2011 Feb 8 2800 91 90 91
2011 Feb 9 2800 90 89 88
2011 Feb 10 2800 91 91 90
2011 Feb 11 2800 92 91 91 (!)
2011 Feb 12 2800 95 96 -- (!!!)
I think we may be riding the long-awaited "spike".
Next stop SFI=100!
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Post by af4ex on Feb 12, 2011 22:23:11 GMT
Old region 1151 has rotated into view and looks very active magnetically, judging from the tight radii on its coronal loops. Also a spot seems to be visible in white light. Attachments:
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Post by Bob k6tr on Feb 12, 2011 23:19:05 GMT
The 9AM and Noon reports are in from Penticton. Penticton 1700Z, 2000Z, 2300Z: 2011 Feb 7 2800 82 82 82 2011 Feb 8 2800 91 90 91 2011 Feb 9 2800 90 89 88 2011 Feb 10 2800 91 91 90 2011 Feb 11 2800 92 91 91 (!) 2011 Feb 12 2800 95 96 -- (!!!) I think we may be riding the long-awaited "spike". Next stop SFI=100! The 2200 ut SF reading is 96.7 which rounds to 97 The 2000 ut read is the official reading for the day so we have to wait at least one more day. It sure looks wierd seeing the large number of groups on the sun and not one is of any size worth mentioning. |
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Post by af4ex on Feb 12, 2011 23:58:26 GMT
The 9AM and Noon reports are in from Penticton. Penticton 1700Z, 2000Z, 2300Z: 2011 Feb 7 2800 82 82 82 2011 Feb 8 2800 91 90 91 2011 Feb 9 2800 90 89 88 2011 Feb 10 2800 91 91 90 2011 Feb 11 2800 92 91 91 (!) 2011 Feb 12 2800 95 96 -- (!!!) I think we may be riding the long-awaited "spike". Next stop SFI=100! The 2200 ut SF reading is 96.7 which rounds to 97 The 2000 ut read is the official reading for the day so we have to wait at least one more day. It sure looks wierd seeing the large number of groups on the sun and not one is of any size worth mentioning. The 2300Z reading from Penticton just came in: 97 Penticton 1700Z, 2000Z, 2300Z: 2011 Feb 7 2800 82 82 82 2011 Feb 8 2800 91 90 91 2011 Feb 9 2800 90 89 88 2011 Feb 10 2800 91 91 90 2011 Feb 11 2800 92 91 91 (!) 2011 Feb 12 2800 95 96 97 (!!!) Looking like a slam dunk for 100 very soon. |
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Post by lsvalgaard on Feb 13, 2011 0:29:23 GMT
The 9AM and Noon reports are in from Penticton. Penticton 1700Z, 2000Z, 2300Z: 2011 Feb 7 2800 82 82 82 2011 Feb 8 2800 91 90 91 2011 Feb 9 2800 90 89 88 2011 Feb 10 2800 91 91 90 2011 Feb 11 2800 92 91 91 (!) 2011 Feb 12 2800 95 96 -- (!!!) I think we may be riding the long-awaited "spike". Next stop SFI=100! The 2200 ut SF reading is 96.7 which rounds to 97 The 2000 ut read is the official reading for the day so we have to wait at least one more day. It sure looks wierd seeing the large number of groups on the sun and not one is of any size worth mentioning. Many small regions have more closed magnetic loops in the lower corona and so produce more solar flux than a few large regions whose loops extend further out in the corona where the density is much lower. |
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Post by lsvalgaard on Feb 13, 2011 3:12:53 GMT
X-posted from WUWT: The polar fields have been changing of late. There are several points to make here: 1) because of the large pixel size [1/11 of the solar diameter] the polar fields measured at WSO will be seen to reverse about a year before they actually do. See paragraph [7] of www.leif.org/research/Cycle%2024%20Smallest%20100%20years.pdf2) the polar fields in the two polar caps are not strongly correlated, one can change a year or more before the other one. 3) the reversal is not a slow, regular progression, but proceeds in random jerks or ‘surges’ of opposite polarity moving towards the poles. On average there are about five such surges. obs.astro.ucla.edu/torsional.html4) the total polar flux is small, only a one thousandth of the sunspot flux [over the cycle]. 5) the past few months have seen a very powerful surge of positive polarity towards the north pole [but none so far towards the south]. Because the polar fields were already weak, this surge has completely cancelled the north polar fields, even to the point that the polar coronal hole that normally lives there has virtually disappeared. You can see that here: stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/beacon/beacon_secchi.shtml6) since we expect more surges in the year(s) to come it thus seems possible that the north polar fields might build to be stronger than they have been at this last minimum, thus presaging a large cycle 25. We don’t know this for sure, of course, but it seems very possible to me. This is somewhat unexpected, so, yes, these are interesting times |
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Post by Bob k6tr on Feb 13, 2011 3:47:29 GMT
Whose is X Leif ?
Is he or she credible ?
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Post by lsvalgaard on Feb 13, 2011 4:53:41 GMT
Who is X Leif ? Is he or she credible ? I meant to say Cross-posted [by me]. You know as in 'Ped Xing'. |
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Post by Bob k6tr on Feb 13, 2011 5:04:40 GMT
Who is X Leif ? Is he or she credible ? I meant to say Cross-posted [by me]. You know as in 'Ped Xing'. Well I guess that answers both questions. ;D What I'm wondering is how long will Cycle 24 be ? With the way the rise phase is dragging on I'm beginning to suspect 24 could be considerably longer than 23. And it was 12.5 years long. So what will Cycle 24 be ? 14 Years, 15 Years ? ? ? |
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Post by lsvalgaard on Feb 13, 2011 5:15:02 GMT
I meant to say Cross-posted [by me]. You know as in 'Ped Xing'. Well I guess that answers both questions. ;D What I'm wonder is how long will Cycle 24 be ? With the way the rise phase is dragging on I'm beginning to suspect 24 could be considerably longer than 23. And it was 12.5 years long. So what will Cycle 24 be ? 14 Years, 15 Years ? ? ? The rise may be dogged by the L&P effect. I don't think SC24 will be extraordinarily long. If the polar fields have already begun to reverse [at least the North], the maximum cannot be too far off, say 2013 or 2014. |
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Post by lsvalgaard on Feb 13, 2011 5:16:58 GMT
The 2200 ut SF reading is 96.7 which rounds to 97 The 2000 ut read is the official reading for the day so we have to wait at least one more day. It sure looks wierd seeing the large number of groups on the sun and not one is of any size worth mentioning. The 2300Z reading from Penticton just came in: 97 Penticton 1700Z, 2000Z, 2300Z: 2011 Feb 7 2800 82 82 82 2011 Feb 8 2800 91 90 91 2011 Feb 9 2800 90 89 88 2011 Feb 10 2800 91 91 90 2011 Feb 11 2800 92 91 91 (!) 2011 Feb 12 2800 95 96 97 (!!!) Looking like a slam dunk for 100 very soon. Tomorrow! |
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arjan
New Member
Posts: 14
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Post by arjan on Feb 13, 2011 10:56:33 GMT
The 2300Z reading from Penticton just came in: 97 Penticton 1700Z, 2000Z, 2300Z: 2011 Feb 7 2800 82 82 82 2011 Feb 8 2800 91 90 91 2011 Feb 9 2800 90 89 88 2011 Feb 10 2800 91 91 90 2011 Feb 11 2800 92 91 91 (!) 2011 Feb 12 2800 95 96 97 (!!!) Looking like a slam dunk for 100 very soon. Tomorrow! Hello, I'm new here ' Looks like that just might happen today. 11158 is going nuts! Allthough it didn't flare yet, background xrays are steadily climbing over the last 12 hours and are hovering around C1 level for a few hours now. The spot looks really bright in the EVE soft xray image. A torrent of fieldlines is popping up in the SDO/HMI magnetogram 48h movie. I don't have experience in sunspot counting but 11158 seems to have around 50 spots now, several with penumbra. It seems to have all the ingredients for a nice big flare today |
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