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Post by Kevin VE3EN on Apr 4, 2011 2:35:19 GMT
Hi Kevin, how sure are you that that last cme is not pointed toward us, much? SWPC Update indicates that the GOES-15 Solar X-Ray Imager picked up the CME around old Region 1176 which is now on the Southwest Limb.. because of its position, it would not be earth directed. |
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Post by Ole Doc Sief on Apr 4, 2011 3:03:01 GMT
Haven't heard much from Livingston And Penn Dr Svalgaard, how are their numbers running at this part of the cycle>
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Post by lsvalgaard on Apr 4, 2011 3:36:26 GMT
Haven't heard much from Livingston And Penn Dr Svalgaard, how are their numbers running at this part of the cycle> Livingston has just had a week of observing so we shall see soon. He missed observing last month because of cleaning ;D of the telescope. |
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loly
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 154
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Post by loly on Apr 4, 2011 14:35:17 GMT
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Post by vukcevic on Apr 4, 2011 20:26:32 GMT
SIDC’s non-smoothed number for March is 56.3. Since I plot non-smoothed numbers, with a bit of luck by time of the SC24 max, SSN may hit 80, as the formula predicted as far back as 2003 (published Jan 2004). www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/NFC7.htm |
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Post by lsvalgaard on Apr 4, 2011 21:23:18 GMT
SIDC’s non-smoothed number for March is 56.3. Since I plot non-smoothed numbers, with a bit of luck by time of the SC24 max, SSN may hit 80, as the formula predicted as far back as 2003 (published Jan 2004). www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/NFC7.htmIt should be obvious to everybody how bad the fits are. And the formulae still look to be the ones with errors. |
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wd7z
New Member
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Post by wd7z on Apr 5, 2011 0:46:43 GMT
SIDC’s non-smoothed number for March is 56.3. Since I plot non-smoothed numbers, with a bit of luck by time of the SC24 max, SSN may hit 80, as the formula predicted as far back as 2003 (published Jan 2004). www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/NFC7.htmIt should be obvious to everybody how bad the fits are. And the formulae still look to be the ones with errors. Not sure why you just don't give it up on this, Doc. After this length of time, it seems pointless. Your thoughts? |
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solarstormlover54
Level 2 Rank
Hot and dry trend Since January. Looks to continue at least through the first half of May.
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Post by solarstormlover54 on Apr 5, 2011 0:49:14 GMT
The sun unpredictable fiery ball. It will only loosely follow its own cycles.
The sun seems to follow it's 11 year cycles like clockwork, Well the Maunder minimum stopped that did it not?
Much like the weather on earth hardly follows the climate often times.
Ever thought About the suns own "El-Nino" or other variable that may mess with the normal rhythm of solar activity?
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Post by lsvalgaard on Apr 5, 2011 5:16:02 GMT
It should be obvious to everybody how bad the fits are. And the formulae still look to be the ones with errors. Not sure why you just don't give it up on this, Doc. After this length of time, it seems pointless. Your thoughts? not worth thoughts. just a knee-jerk reflex. and it keeps Vuk happy that somebody, anybody, is responding. |
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Post by vukcevic on Apr 5, 2011 7:41:46 GMT
Good or bad, it is the best available, and further more it is based on accurate astronomic time constants. Maunder minimum was not an interruption but also part of the same astronomic cycle ( Oort, Wolf, Spoerer, Maunder, Dalton an possibly New Dalton) as defined by the same cyclical formula : www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/NFC5.htmor just the Maunder with minor anomalies:  |
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Post by vukcevic on Apr 5, 2011 11:02:35 GMT
not worth thoughts. just a knee-jerk reflex. and it keeps Vuk happy that somebody, anybody, is responding. And yet you are very consistent in your insistence that SC24 should be same as SC14 and compare 13 and 23: precisely as my formula suggests. Self evident !  |
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wd7z
New Member
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Post by wd7z on Apr 5, 2011 14:17:23 GMT
Not sure why you just don't give it up on this, Doc. After this length of time, it seems pointless. Your thoughts? not worth thoughts. just a knee-jerk reflex. and it keeps Vuk happy that somebody, anybody, is responding. I am going to take that as good advice. Thanks. |
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loly
Level 3 Rank
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Post by loly on Apr 6, 2011 14:14:04 GMT
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loly
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 154
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Post by loly on Apr 6, 2011 15:57:16 GMT
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Post by france on Apr 6, 2011 20:46:51 GMT
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