Solar Cycle 24 Main Discussion X

[Kevin VE3EN]

Time for Bill Gates to be a fan of my website and donate me something nice. ;D

Ok.. back to the topic of spaceweather.

Not much happening right now however.

Kevin

[solarstormlover54]

Solar Flux for March 2011 was 122.9.
The highest it's been since 2003

SSN of 56.2(Highest since 2003)

[bradk]

Thanks solarstormlover.

If those numbers are correct we should move above the trendline predictions by NOAA. Maybe certain websites will even do a mea culpa for all the crap they have written about them.

[lsvalgaard]

Apr 3, 2011 0:55:20 GMT bradk said:

Thanks solarstormlover.

If those numbers are correct we should move above the trendline predictions by NOAA. Maybe certain websites will even do a mea culpa for all the crap they have written about them.

But remember solar cycle 14 and its wild swings:

[Bob k6tr]

Apr 3, 2011 4:21:43 GMT lsvalgaard said:

Apr 3, 2011 0:55:20 GMT bradk said:

Thanks solarstormlover.

If those numbers are correct we should move above the trendline predictions by NOAA. Maybe certain websites will even do a mea culpa for all the crap they have written about them.

But remember solar cycle 14 and its wild swings:

But remember Leif a considerable part of that can be attributed to the difference between the 27 day Solar Rotation and the quirky calendar month system that contains 30 to 31 days.

Last month is a classic example. With 31 Days and some favorable triming March was ablle to include a very active band of Longitudes twice. That goosed the numbers rendering an artificially high Monthly Sunspot Number.

Stop and ponder this. Over the last several days the 304A Index reading surpassed the record high of 231 (@ EVE) set early in the month. This comes despite the fact the 27 Day Daily Sunspot Number peaked 4% lower than early in the month and the 10.7 cm SFI was down 20% from the levels recorded early in the month. As I type this out the 304A Index is tickling 235.

[janjanssens]

Apr 3, 2011 5:07:31 GMT Bob k6tr said:

Apr 3, 2011 4:21:43 GMT lsvalgaard said:

But remember solar cycle 14 and its wild swings:

But remember Leif a considerable part of that can be attributed to the difference between the 27 day Solar Rotation and the quirky calendar month system that contains 30 to 31 days.

Last month is a classic example. With 31 Days and some favorable triming March was ablle to include a very active band of Longitudes twice. That goosed the numbers rendering an artificially high Monthly Sunspot Number.

Stop and ponder this. Over the last several days the 304A Index reading surpassed the record high of 231 (@ EVE) set early in the month. This comes despite the fact the 27 Day Daily Sunspot Number peaked 4% lower than early in the month and the 10.7 cm SFI was down 20% from the levels recorded early in the month. As I type this out the 304A Index is tickling 235.

Bob,

Those up- and down swings are still there even if you average for 27 days.

Attachments:

[solarstormlover54]

I noticed that Cycle 14 still has a gradual warm up into it's max.
it does have spikes but non really in the beginning. Though it does top my list of cycles to compare too. 2011 will be the year we know what SC24 is like. The coming months will show what we are in for. Will things level off or drop like SC14, to continue to go up rapidly.
Time will tell i guess

I put the March 2011 values on the chart and I get this
Sunspot spike by Stormlover87, on Flickr
solar spike by Stormlover87, on Flickr

As you can see Solar cycle 24 has already announced it's uniqueness among the other 23 cycles.

The chart shows:
Cycle 24 slowly warming up after a long minimum, then suddenly skyrockets to from the 20s to the 50s in one month.

It seems that Solar cycle 24 may have a similar warm-up to solar cycle 3, just quite a bit weaker. The chart show this quite well. If so we may just meet that forecast peak.

[THEO BAKALEXIS]

Fair - average seeing today from athens and mak an observation.

Photos here.

www.solar-007.eu/site/

[THEO BAKALEXIS]

A tribute to active region 11176.
Make a video from SDO.

www.solar-007.eu/site/

[Kevin VE3EN]

STEREO COR images detected a huge explosion on the Sun.

[loly]

Video STEREO A - STEREO-B

www.youtube.com/watch?v=z0kr8o1Pf0g&feature=player_embedded

www.youtube.com/watch?v=gpdDIXJnhZw&feature=player_embedded


An eruption occurred in the vicinity of NOAA AR 1178 and plage 1176 early on April 3rd, with typical post-flare loop arcades. A CME was observed by the COR2 coronagraph onboard Stereo A spacecraft. Due the location of this event close the limb, we expect little, if any, geomagnetic effects


2012buscadelaverdad.foroactivo.mx/t20p105-ciclo-solar-24-seguimiento-y-actualizacion#835

[sigurdur]

All i can say is we are fortunate that these are not directed towards earth.

[Bob k6tr]

Apr 3, 2011 7:52:44 GMT janjanssens said:

Apr 3, 2011 5:07:31 GMT Bob k6tr said:

But remember Leif a considerable part of that can be attributed to the difference between the 27 day Solar Rotation and the quirky calendar month system that contains 30 to 31 days.

Last month is a classic example. With 31 Days and some favorable triming March was ablle to include a very active band of Longitudes twice. That goosed the numbers rendering an artificially high Monthly Sunspot Number.

Stop and ponder this. Over the last several days the 304A Index reading surpassed the record high of 231 (@ EVE) set early in the month. This comes despite the fact the 27 Day Daily Sunspot Number peaked 4% lower than early in the month and the 10.7 cm SFI was down 20% from the levels recorded early in the month. As I type this out the 304A Index is tickling 235.

Bob,

Those up- and down swings are still there even if you average for 27 days.

And if you look at the graph for Cycle 24
you will see the the monthly number remained at or below 5 for the first 12 months of the Cycle.

Returning to Cycle 14


It showed 3 peaks during the same time period. The first of 12 at Month 2 the second of 15 at month 8 and the third of 15 at month 12. No such activity took place during the first 12 months of Cycle 24. Now we are entering the phase of rapid runnup phase of Cycle 24.

The March Number peak at a SN of 56 27 months after Minimum while the same such Peak for Cycle 14 occurred 30 months after Minimum.

Nonetheless I pointed out that a statistical anomoly lead to an inflated Monthly Number for March. April may even see a decline in real activity. With that being said it is readily apparent that Cycle 24 is overtaking but still show a substantial increase over previous dips. The next few months will be key in determining what happens but if the peak is more than a year away it is pretty certain it will be considerably high than that of Cycle 14.

And from what I see of hemispheric activity there will be 2 Peaks to Cycle 24 like what occurred in Cycle 23 and not 4 Peaks that occurred in Cycle 14.

Beyond that to hold out Cycle 14 as a model for Cycle 24 is to engage in numerology. People become emotionally attached their statements and then see only what they want to see.

If you want to see a more open minded comparison use

Which compares a number of similar Cycles

[lsvalgaard]

Apr 3, 2011 20:02:38 GMT Bob k6tr said:

Apr 3, 2011 7:52:44 GMT janjanssens said:

Beyond that to hold out Cycle 14 as a model for Cycle 24 is to engage in numerology. People become emotionally attached their statements and then see only what they want to see.

Saying that any cycle is a model for any other cycle is already numerology. The only thing SC14 showed is that large swings happen in small cycles. Beyond that, nothing more can be said.

[openended]

Hi Kevin, how sure are you that that last cme is not pointed toward us, much?