Solar Cycle 24 Main Discussion X

[lsvalgaard]

Feb 13, 2011 5:16:58 GMT lsvalgaard said:

Feb 12, 2011 23:58:26 GMT af4ex said:

The 2300Z reading from Penticton just came in: 97

Penticton 1700Z, 2000Z, 2300Z:
2011 Feb 7 2800 82 82 82
2011 Feb 8 2800 91 90 91
2011 Feb 9 2800 90 89 88
2011 Feb 10 2800 91 91 90
2011 Feb 11 2800 92 91 91 (!)
2011 Feb 12 2800 95 96 97 (!!!)

Looking like a slam dunk for 100 very soon.

Tomorrow!

Not a bad prediction... ;D

[solarstormlover54]

Yep flux close at 107 today, a new record for the cycle. also set a sunspot number of 84. Looking back I noticed that my prediction of 50 spotless days was off by just one day. I'm surprised at got that spot on considering my prediction of 60 daily sunspots by Dec 2010 did no come to pass.

[bradk]

I also say congrats to af4ex for his call on greatly increased activity - he was off by a week or so, but still pretty darn good!

We will have to wait on Dr. Svalgaards 50-70 year time frame call on the L & P effect.

[af4ex]

bradk
> I also say congrats to af4ex for his call on greatly increased
> activity - he was off by a week or so, but still pretty darn good!

Thanks, but I was just applying Dr. S.'s Conjecture: SC24 = SC14

[af4ex]

@sc24.com.boards
> Topic: Solar Cycle 24 Main Discussion X (Read 2,886 times)

Another 'index' is also increasing rapidly: the number of times this blog topic has been read since it was created by K6TR last Wednesday. Almost 3000 times!

But only 78 posts, a meager 1:37 ratio.

Come out, SC24 lurkers, and start posting!

[Maui]

Hey, sunspot number is 84, R2 radio blackout, and "On Feb. 13th at 1738 UT, sunspot 1158 unleashed the strongest solar flare of the year so far, an M6.6-category blast." (Tony Phillips)

[Maui]

Interestingly, we are experiencing one of the more powerful wind events of the (rather mild for us) season. I seem to remember a big snow storm on the Northwest Coast that was related to coincided with a solar event--November 26, 2006??--Vancouver, BC, got hammered, and Eastsound had 18" of snow.


SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-
ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-
400 AM PST MON FEB 14 2011

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
PST TONIGHT FOR THE NORTH INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON...

[france]

Did you notice this peak at M6.6 happens exactly one year after the first peak of SC24 at M8.3 the 2.12.2010 ?

[af4ex]

Looks like another M-flare in progress. M2 from 1158 I'd guess.

Attachments:

[af4ex]

... yep, it was 1158. Look at the x-ray flash on that baby! ;D

Attachments:

[af4ex]

... updating that SDO EVE Soft X-Ray image (pinhole camera for x-rays!)

Attachments:

[jj2k]

Hello, long time lurker here.
Complete novice about this stuff but very interested.
I wanted to ask, is anything that is coming of 1158 recently geo effective atall?
I guess it would be on the frontpage of cycle24 if it was but where is it worked out anyway?
Thanks.

[france]

Feb 13, 2011 3:12:53 GMT lsvalgaard said:

X-posted from WUWT:
The polar fields have been changing of late. There are several points to make here:
1) because of the large pixel size [1/11 of the solar diameter] the polar fields measured at WSO will be seen to reverse about a year before they actually do. See paragraph [7] of www.leif.org/research/Cycle%2024%20Smallest%20100%20years.pdf
2) the polar fields in the two polar caps are not strongly correlated, one can change a year or more before the other one.
3) the reversal is not a slow, regular progression, but proceeds in random jerks or ‘surges’ of opposite polarity moving towards the poles. On average there are about five such surges.
obs.astro.ucla.edu/torsional.html
4) the total polar flux is small, only a one thousandth of the sunspot flux [over the cycle].
5) the past few months have seen a very powerful surge of positive polarity towards the north pole [but none so far towards the south]. Because the polar fields were already weak, this surge has completely cancelled the north polar fields, even to the point that the polar coronal hole that normally lives there has virtually disappeared. You can see that here: stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/beacon/beacon_secchi.shtml
6) since we expect more surges in the year(s) to come it thus seems possible that the north polar fields might build to be stronger than they have been at this last minimum, thus presaging a large cycle 25. We don’t know this for sure, of course, but it seems very possible to me. This is somewhat unexpected, so, yes, these are interesting times

Dr Svalgaard, you presume a large SC25.

I noticed that :

To show low records as we see with SC24 don't mean necessary a low solarcycle I found what happened in 1954. I just spotted last time values were as low as in SC24 (near 0) it was precisely in 1954 (I don't find others since 1950, you can verify). Yet 1954 belongs both SC18 (with 151.8 ssn) and (SC19 with 201.3 sn) , the two highest SC of the SC we know

1951 59.9 59.9 55.9 92.9 108.5 100.6 61.5 61.0 83.1 51.6 52.4 45.8
1952 40.7 22.7 22.0 29.1 23.4 36.4 39.3 54.9 28.2 23.8 22.1 34.3
1953 26.5 3.9 10.0 27.8 12.5 21.8 8.6 23.5 19.3 8.2 1.6 2.5
1954 0.2 0.5 10.9 1.8 0.8 0.2 4.8 8.4 1.5 7.0 9.2 7.6
1955 23.1 20.8 4.9 11.3 28.9 31.7 26.7 40.7 42.7 58.5 89.2 76.9

4 values

2006 15.3 4.9 10.6 30.2 22.3 13.9 12.2 12.9 14.4 10.5 21.4 13.6
2007 16.8 10.7 4.5 3.4 11.7 12.1 9.7 6.0 2.4 0.9 1.7 10.1
2008 3.3 2.1 9.3 2.9 3.2 3.4 0.8 0.5 1.1 2.9 4.1 0.8
2009 1.3 1.4 0.7 0.8 2.9 2.9 3.2 0.0 4.3 4.8 4.1 10.8
2010 13.2 18.8 15.4 8.0 8.7 13.6 16.1 19.6 25.2 23.5 21.6 14.5
2011 19.0

6 values of which one "0"

during Dalton minima values were more frequent at "0"

1796 22.0 23.8 15.7 31.7 21.0 6.7 26.9 1.5 18.4 11.0 8.4 5.1
1797 14.4 4.2 4.0 4.0 7.3 11.1 4.3 6.0 5.7 6.9 5.8 3.0
1798 2.0 4.0 12.4 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 2.4 1.5 12.5 9.9
1799 1.6 12.6 21.7 8.4 8.2 10.6 2.1 0.0 0.0 4.6 2.7 8.6
1800 6.9 9.3 13.9 0.0 5.0 23.7 21.0 19.5 11.5 12.3 10.5 40.1

5 values which are only "0"

1806 39.0 29.6 32.7 27.7 26.4 25.6 30.0 26.3 24.0 27.0 25.0 24.0
1807 12.0 12.2 9.6 23.8 10.0 12.0 12.7 12.0 5.7 8.0 2.6 0.0
1808 0.0 4.5 0.0 12.3 13.5 13.5 6.7 8.0 11.7 4.7 10.5 12.3
1809 7.2 9.2 0.9 2.5 2.0 7.7 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
1810 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
1811 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 0.0 2.4 6.1 0.8 1.1
1812 11.3 1.9 0.7 0.0 1.0 1.3 0.5 15.6 5.2 3.9 7.9 10.1
1813 0.0 10.3 1.9 16.6 5.5 11.2 18.3 8.4 15.3 27.8 16.7 14.3
1814 22.2 12.0 5.7 23.8 5.8 14.9 18.5 2.3 8.1 19.3 14.5 20.1
1815 19.2 32.2 26.2 31.6 9.8 55.9 35.5 47.2 31.5 33.5 37.2 65.0

31 values of which 26 were "0"

4 values near "0" during solar minimum in januray-june 1954
6 values near "0" of which one = 0 during solar minimum in july 2008-july 2009

may be solar maximum of SC24 will begin around july 2012 as I understood with what you explain about coronal hole and reverse polarity (delay of 18 months you evoked) ?

[lsvalgaard]

Feb 14, 2011 18:20:04 GMT france said:

may be solar maximum of SC24 will begin around july 2012 as I understood with what you explain about coronal hole and reverse polarity (delay of 18 months you evoked) ?

I think more like middle of 2013 as the south polar field is still strong.

[af4ex]

Feb 14, 2011 18:13:42 GMT jj2k said:

Hello, long time lurker here.
Complete novice about this stuff but very interested.
I wanted to ask, is anything that is coming of 1158 recently geo effective atall?
I guess it would be on the frontpage of cycle24 if it was but where is it worked out anyway?
Thanks.

Welcome to Solar Cycle 24!

Yes, there is geomagnetic activity coming in right now(check upper left quadrant of front page). But since this is mostly the effect of solar winds, it presents solar activity from a few days ago. Takes roughly four days for solar wind to arrive at Earth from the Sun.

So we can expect more interesting geomag stuff (auroras!) in the next few days from these m-flares (which are shooting plasma directly at Earth).