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Post by lsvalgaard on Feb 14, 2011 19:01:31 GMT
F10.7 is now 114, but contaminated a bit by the flare.
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Post by w7psk on Feb 14, 2011 19:26:40 GMT
F10.7 is now 114, but contaminated a bit by the flare. Pardon my extreme ignorance, but what do you mean by contaminated ? |
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bradk
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 199
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Post by bradk on Feb 14, 2011 19:38:07 GMT
F10.7 is now 114, but contaminated a bit by the flare. Pardon my extreme ignorance, but what do you mean by contaminated ? I think the good doctor is referring to the number as it relates to the sunspot number, namely the flux is higher than it would be for this number of spots because of the flare. |
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Post by lsvalgaard on Feb 14, 2011 19:44:02 GMT
Pardon my extreme ignorance, but what do you mean by contaminated ? I think the good doctor is referring to the number as it relates to the sunspot number, namely the flux is higher than it would be for this number of spots because of the flare. A flare adds for a short time [hours] a bit to F10.7. This 'spike' is usually removed when computing daily of monthly averages. I'm not sure this is reasonable, but that is what is [has been] done. |
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jj2k
New Member
Posts: 9
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Post by jj2k on Feb 14, 2011 20:05:33 GMT
Hello, long time lurker here. Complete novice about this stuff but very interested. I wanted to ask, is anything that is coming of 1158 recently geo effective atall? I guess it would be on the frontpage of cycle24 if it was but where is it worked out anyway? Thanks. Welcome to Solar Cycle 24! Yes, there is geomagnetic activity coming in right now(check upper left quadrant of front page). But since this is mostly the effect of solar winds, it presents solar activity from a few days ago. Takes roughly four days for solar wind to arrive at Earth from the Sun. So we can expect more interesting geomag stuff (auroras!) in the next few days from these m-flares (which are shooting plasma directly at Earth). Thanks, ok 4 days i will keep that in mind. yea i come here everyday hoping for a low latitude aurora prediction, one day! |
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arjan
New Member
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Post by arjan on Feb 14, 2011 20:19:46 GMT
Looks like there is a serious CME heading our way. That last M2.2 produced a type II/2 radioburst with a shockvelocity of 1496km/s.
It's already visible in the stereo behind euv and cor2 and lasco as well. It looks fast and bright.
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Post by af4ex on Feb 14, 2011 20:25:36 GMT
jj2k> Thanks, ok 4 days i will keep that in mind. yea i come here > everyday hoping for a low latitude aurora prediction, one day! The delay time also depends on the solar wind speed, which can vary between 200-600 km/sec. Faster wind cuts the transit time down, of course. Also pay attention to the Bz component of the solar wind, which is the magnetic component parallel to the Earth's magnetic axis. Normally it's positive which denotes a N-orientation to solar wind. Right now it strongly negative, so pointing South. (Green oval below) Recall that two magnets repel if you put them N to N, but attract if you put them N to S. So negative Bz allows the solar magnetism to 'connect' to the Earth's magnetism, allowing solar wind to precipitate into our world, causing auroras and such. The "Aurora Oval" on the front page will turn red when we have a good connection. Which looks like it's happening right now. Attachments:
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Post by Bob k6tr on Feb 14, 2011 20:40:07 GMT
Bz has swung hard South. OK All you VHF Guys go to it !
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Post by Bob k6tr on Feb 14, 2011 20:51:02 GMT
I think the good doctor is referring to the number as it relates to the sunspot number, namely the flux is higher than it would be for this number of spots because of the flare. A flare adds for a short time [hours] a bit to F10.7. This 'spike' is usually removed when computing daily of monthly averages. I'm not sure this is reasonable, but that is what is [has been] done. Leif flares also goose the 304A numbers a little bit. It doesn't last very long but it is perceptable. I love the high refresh rate of SDO's EVE Experiment ! ;D |
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Post by af4ex on Feb 14, 2011 21:06:51 GMT
The Penticton Noon (2000Z) Flux Report for 14-Feb is in: 113 sfu
Looks like it was hard to separate the slowly-varying from rapidly-varying flux components today.
Penticton 1700Z, 2000Z, 2300Z:
2011 Feb 7 2800 82 82 82
2011 Feb 8 2800 91 90 91
2011 Feb 9 2800 90 89 88
2011 Feb 10 2800 91 91 90
2011 Feb 11 2800 92 91 91
2011 Feb 12 2800 95 96 97
2011 Feb 13 2800 126 107 104
2011 Feb 14 2800 114 113 ---
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Post by af4ex on Feb 14, 2011 21:14:25 GMT
Bob k6tr> Leif, flares also goose the 304A numbers a little bit. It doesn't > last very long but it is perceptable. > I love the high refresh rate of SDO's EVE Experiment ! But no big change in momentum, we're still headed UP. ;D Attachments:
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Post by af4ex on Feb 14, 2011 21:44:26 GMT
Looking at the USGS magnetometers, seems like the ring currents (in the lower vanAllen belt) got a boost around 1600Z (red oval), causing a rise in geomagnetism (~100nt in the Arctic latitudes, ~10nt lower latitudes) geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/Attachments:
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Post by af4ex on Feb 14, 2011 22:27:47 GMT
@vuk
> GOES W135 magnetogram ?!
Looks like both GOES spacecraft (at W75 and W135) also captured this magnetic boost at the same time (looking down on it from their geosynchronous orbits?).
What do you make of this, Vuk?
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Post by af4ex on Feb 14, 2011 22:39:21 GMT
Yes, not clear if it shut itself down or was damaged somehow. The electron flux reports look similar (but proton flux looks OK).   |
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Post by af4ex on Feb 14, 2011 22:56:44 GMT
The Canadian magnetometers also picked up the magnetic boost at 1600Z. Mainly in the Y (East) magnetic component, which would be parallel to the ring currents. Dr. Svalgaard, help me out here, does that confirm or falsify my conjecture that it's the ring currents? (I'm a little rusty on the right-hand rule stuff) Attachments:
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