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Post by rangertab1 on Mar 18, 2011 17:53:30 GMT
sadmemories20, Read my signature line. Your screen name should change, if you truly have learned something about my post.  Flares will be flares, but happy memories are a choice. Be happy.  Welcome to the board and thank you for your interest in my interest. |
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Post by heather on Mar 22, 2011 0:12:49 GMT
@rangertab you're interests are shared through this place. I too am pretty new and have became addicted to this. There are many of us out here, some amateur (as myself) and many who are just mind blowing. This is what I have started... solarflareeffects.wordpress.com/ I agree the November solare flare in 1859 was HUGE. Another route to think as well is with the Polar shifts that took place this past year...not too sure if that is useful to you or just 'junk' |
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Post by heather on Apr 4, 2011 4:06:36 GMT
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Post by rangertab1 on Jul 20, 2011 18:34:37 GMT
Let us suppose that certain planetary orientations within the Heliosphere may allow us to predict some magnetic events. Call it predictable actions of the IMF and it's family of influencers. If such orientations are true, we are now entering another moment (27 days) where an X class flare is likely to occur.
I do not support nor deny any magnetic theories presented to me, until time has given a just and fair assessment of said theories. For me, I am watching the Sun a little closer for the next short time-window.
Because I enjoy these ideas/theories, I will give support to some part of this theory if an X class flare occurs in the next 54 days (27 days X 2). Enjoy the season and peace to you all.
Brent
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Post by justsomeguy on Jul 21, 2011 16:00:44 GMT
Why 54 days if the model predicts 27?
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Post by fallensun on Jul 22, 2011 9:27:39 GMT
If the sun continues it's current pattern since last year then a revamp is going to happen and peak again in the fall, possibly the next 54 days. Personally I'm watching closely to see if this spring fall peaking continues or if its just coincidence.
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Post by justsomeguy on Jul 22, 2011 13:24:08 GMT
So the theory is that the position/tilt of the earth is having an effect on the sun?
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Post by fallensun on Jul 23, 2011 6:44:13 GMT
Couple of things, is it earth related or alignment related or both? Roughly estimating, These peak times since august 2009 roughly correspond with our March and Sept equinoxes. Also this happens to be around the same time of the last 2 crossings with Saturn and Jupiter.
Equinox means the poles are not pointing toward or away from the sun. more neutral maybe?
Not saying this is accurate, just use a simulator and the chart.
But even more interesting is that the flux only went up on Saturn alignments.
SO this whole idea is that maybe the earth is providing a magnetic jump point for the outer large planets and may be taking control of the weak sun and dictating the current warm up of the cycle. Kind of like when your battery dies you need a jump start.
Storm on Saturn... Something may be going on here but could be coincidental.
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Post by fallensun on Jul 23, 2011 7:00:47 GMT
I dont know what the 54days is about, the next Jupiter alignment occurs Oct 30th, month off the equinox.
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Post by rangertab1 on Jul 26, 2011 22:47:30 GMT
27 days is one Solar rotation period. A simple timeline for this guesswork. I used this period of time as an hour-glass of sorts. I added another rotation just for good measure and time-kindness to the theory.
Basically, the ion flux distribution within the IMF is influenced by certain planet's locations within the heliosphere. Earth shows some variations depending on it's heliospheric location.
As our heliospere pushes thru elemental 'clouds' touching our heliosheath, ionization varies from the nose to the tail of the heliosphere. Little is known of the certainty with which the heliosheath's ionization changes from the nose all the way to the tail, as it passes thru matter clouds. Basic elemental magnetic principles, and nothing more, are required to hypothesize what is likely occuring on a grand scale, so long as we know what these elemental matters are and what the structure of the heliosheath is, though it will vary according to the Sun's output and other factors. Perhaps too many factors to ever understand.
Where Earth is located reference these heliosheric points in September, December, March, and June may matter, may not. The Carrington Event occured within the September window of Earth's orbital location within the heliosphere. It would be hard to prove other than coincidence, even if predictions proved correct. But what the hell, its the internet and nothing is lost but good fun if one doesn't try. Also, our first X class flaring of SC24 occured during the March window of Earth's orbital location within the heliospere. Perhaps, another coincidence.
So, if/as a magnetic solar storm passes thru 60 degrees West, it is likely that the conditions for a X Class flare are greater during these orbital moments.
Heading to the cool waters of the mountains, where the skies are clear. See you all in a few weeks.
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Post by andi47 on Aug 9, 2011 9:06:35 GMT
It seems that an X-class flare has just happened which sets a new cycle 24 record!
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Post by jcarels on Aug 9, 2011 9:35:22 GMT
An X6.9 flare peaked at 08:05 this morning (15min ago). The source is
presumably (TBC) NOAA AR 1263, now at the solar West limb. Note that
this active region triggered a rise in proton flux levels during an
M-flare yesterday evening. The flaring site might thus be in
geo-effective position and more protons might be expected in the coming
hour.
SIDC Presto Alert
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Post by rangertab1 on Nov 7, 2011 4:32:36 GMT
Sunspot 1339, as it passes 60 degrees west longitude, may be worth watching. It is the largest spot of the cycle, though that does not always prove sufficient for big flares. Size, however, often matters. Time will soon tell. Cheers.
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Post by miedosoracing on Nov 8, 2011 23:20:17 GMT
I'd like to point out some things to some of the guys who posted. Although I also agree the Carrington was huge, I doubt a X100. The time it took to get to earth was not that much faster than other big one's like the X45. I'd think the X45 comparison would be about right. Just my opinions. Although I think if we see a X100 ever, I believe we will no longer exist as we know it. I believe the Bible talks about what happens when an X100 happens. Our brains are magnetic computers. Tower of Babel speaks of people all of a sudden losing their speech etc. My guess, reboot. Maybe some more than others. I feel an X30 + will probably be enough if straight on, to wipe out our computer stuff etc. As a side note, the last big recent X flare sent auroras down to Texas even. It wasn't even very big in comparison
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