Solar Flares

[rangertab1]

I would like to discuss flares with all you solar physicists and any other knowledgeable persons interested in the subject. I confess that this subject is what led me to the internet, in search of professionals willing to discuss their solar-flare expertise.

Oddly, I began searching for web-discussions on such an event while the Sun was at a very low and late minimum. Flares were not a subject of much interest, but this week's X flare has revived it's discussion.

To keep things focused, I would like to begin with the discussion of the most powerful flare ever recorded by our modern devices. I would love to discuss all the flares in the minimum year of 2005 (especially the 20 January flare), but I would like to start with 4 November 2003.


On 4 November 2003, the largest flare ever recorded burst from the Sun and was classified as an X28, mostly because it overloaded GOES' instrumentation and couldn't be precisely classified. Because some scientists were already measuring our ionosphere for other scientific research, we were able to precisely determine this flare's strength using other methods, though GOES is a wonderful creature that I am tax-payer proud of.

Although all records indicate the 4 November 2003 flare was an X28+, it was later classified as an X45. I have been told it was somewhat of a 'haymaker' that, had it been more Earth facing, would have incapacitated the U.S. and other's satellite and energy systems.

Overall, the information above is not new news. You on this board are the folks I would love to receive comments from. Quite frankly, the subject fascinates me like few others. Thanks in advance for any new information on an old subject.

[lsvalgaard]

Feb 18, 2011 23:15:34 GMT rangertab1 said:

I would like to discuss flares with all you solar physicists and any other knowledgeable persons interested in the subject. I confess that this subject is what led me to the internet, in search of professionals willing to discuss their solar-flare expertise.

Oddly, I began searching for web-discussions on such an event while the Sun was at a very low and late minimum. Flares were not a subject of much interest, but this week's X flare has revived it's discussion.

To keep things focused, I would like to begin with the discussion of the most powerful flare ever recorded by our modern devices. I would love to discuss all the flares in the minimum year of 2005 (especially the 20 January flare), but I would like to start with 4 November 2003.


On 4 November 2003, the largest flare ever recorded burst from the Sun and was classified as an X28, mostly because it overloaded GOES' instrumentation and couldn't be precisely classified. Because some scientists were already measuring our ionosphere for other scientific research, we were able to precisely determine this flare's strength using other methods, though GOES is a wonderful creature that I am tax-payer proud of.

Although all records indicate the 4 November 2003 flare was an X28+, it was later classified as an X45. I have been told it was somewhat of a 'haymaker' that, had it been more Earth facing, would have incapacitated the U.S. and other's satellite and energy systems.

Overall, the information above is not new news. You on this board are the folks I would love to receive comments from. Quite frankly, the subject fascinates me like few others. Thanks in advance for any new information on an old subject.

For some historical background:
www.leif.org/research/1859%20Storm%20-%20Extreme%20Space%20Weather.pdf

[rangertab1]

Thanks Leif. What X classification was the 1859 flare?

[rangertab1]

The 4 November flare was a glancing blow, therefore Arctic ice data would not be a good way to compare it to the Carrington flare. However, I am curious if folks have collected Arctic ice data for the 2003 flare?

It's one of those realities that we will probably never know for sure how comparable the two events are.

Moving along to the 20 January 2005 flare, what did scientists conclude about it's rate of speed. Normally, it takes particles a day or two to arrive. This flare's particles arrived in less than 30 minutes.

My question reference this 2005 flare is, when the space between us and the Sun is less dense with particles, could we expect a similar flare to send it's particles at a relativistic rate of speed again?

Thanks.

[lsvalgaard]

Feb 19, 2011 1:55:14 GMT rangertab1 said:

Thanks Leif. What X classification was the 1859 flare?

Nobody knows, but it was certainly off the scale. My guess would be X100. Perhaps we need a classification above X. I suggest G [for Giant], so that X10 would be G1

[rangertab1]

Let us suppose that sunspot structures determine if and when flares occur. Furthermore, the sunspot (s) structure (s) may give us a peek into the energy level of the flare (s).

Now, anyone want to predict if an X class flare will occur as spots 1163/64/65 become Earth facing? How energetic?

I say yes an X class flare will occur during the Earth-facing moment of the current group of spots. The gazillion dollar question is, 'How strong?'

[lsvalgaard]

Feb 26, 2011 18:34:46 GMT rangertab1 said:

Let us suppose that sunspot structures determine if and when flares occur. Furthermore, the sunspot (s) structure (s) may give us a peek into the energy level of the flare (s).

Now, anyone want to predict if an X class flare will occur as spots 1163/64/65 become Earth facing? How energetic?

I say yes an X class flare will occur during the Earth-facing moment of the current group of spots. The gazillion dollar question is, 'How strong?'

There may another way of getting at this: perhaps the magnetic field emerges already 'stressed' for some flare locations, see: www.leif.org/research/Hale-Flares.pdf

[lsvalgaard]

Feb 19, 2011 14:47:02 GMT rangertab1 said:

The 4 November flare was a glancing blow, therefore Arctic ice data would not be a good way to compare it to the Carrington flare. However, I am curious if folks have collected Arctic ice data for the 2003 flare?

It's one of those realities that we will probably never know for sure how comparable the two events are.

Moving along to the 20 January 2005 flare, what did scientists conclude about it's rate of speed. Normally, it takes particles a day or two to arrive. This flare's particles arrived in less than 30 minutes.

My question reference this 2005 flare is, when the space between us and the Sun is less dense with particles, could we expect a similar flare to send it's particles at a relativistic rate of speed again?

The Solar Energetic Particles [SEP] accelerated by the flare often arrive within about 30 minutes. These are different from the ordinary solar wind and CME stuff.

[rangertab1]

This link below does not suggest that SEPs "often" arrive so quickly. Dr. Lin of UC Berkeley, and others, suggested that this was extra-ordinary.

science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2005/10jun_newstorm/


I am simple in thought and am fascinated with the idea that particles (protons) have now been observed traveling at/near a relativistic rate of speed. If this Einsteinian theory is now fact and has been common knowledge to solar physicist, I missed the announcement and apologize for being delayed in my updates or ignorant in my understanding or both.

Fascinating to me none the less.

Thanks Leif.

[lsvalgaard]

Feb 28, 2011 15:53:21 GMT rangertab1 said:

This link below does not suggest that SEPs "often" arrive so quickly. Dr. Lin of UC Berkeley, and others, suggested that this was extra-ordinary.

science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2005/10jun_newstorm/


I am simple in thought and am fascinated with the idea that particles (protons) have now been observed traveling at/near a relativistic rate of speed. If this Einsteinian theory is now fact and has been common knowledge to solar physicist, I missed the announcement and apologize for being delayed in my updates or ignorant in my understanding or both.

Fascinating to me none the less.

Thanks Leif.

Well, Bob Lin said: "We've been hit by strong proton storms before, but [never so quickly]," says solar physicist Robert Lin of UC Berkeley. "Proton storms normally develop hours or even days after a flare."This one began in minutes."

note the 'hours'. What is important is that the SEPs arrive much faster than the solar wind because they are accelerated to very high speeds. Then you must also incalculate the usual hype-factor in such news-releases. Scientists are always stumped, surprised, flabbergasted, etc.
From Wikipedia:
"Most proton storms take two or more hours from the time of visual detection to reach Earth's orbit. A solar flare on January 20, 2005 released the highest concentration of protons ever directly measured,[5] taking only 15 minutes after observation to reach Earth, indicating a velocity of approximately one-third light speed, giving astronauts as little as 15 minutes to reach shelter."

Of course, there will always be just one event that holds the speed record at any time.

Here are a few other big and fast ones, taking about 15-30 minutes:


So, not surprisingly, the big ones are fast [and rarer] and the littler ones are slower.

[rangertab1]

According to Dr. Lin, 60 degree West Longitude was an area worth watching.

Is this a Hale region and is it still an area worth watching?

[lsvalgaard]

Mar 1, 2011 18:02:48 GMT rangertab1 said:

According to Dr. Lin, 60 degree West Longitude was an area worth watching.

Is this a Hale region and is it still an area worth watching?

60 degrees West is ALWAYS worth watching, because that is where the magnetic field lines that reach the Earth come from, so that is were the energetic particles [if any] will come from.

[rangertab1]

My google-fu is weak and unsuccessful in locating a grid mapping of the Sun. Seems as though I have seen one before, perhaps on this site.

Where is 60 degrees West, currently, and is there a resource I can link to for future mapping of the Sun's grid coordinates?

Thanks Leif. I owe you a lunch or two.

[lsvalgaard]

Mar 2, 2011 20:12:38 GMT rangertab1 said:

My google-fu is weak and unsuccessful in locating a grid mapping of the Sun. Seems as though I have seen one before, perhaps on this site.

Where is 60 degrees West, currently, and is there a resource I can link to for future mapping of the Sun's grid coordinates?

Thanks Leif. I owe you a lunch or two.

60 degrees West is about 2/3 of the way towards the West limb from disk center [more precisely Central Meridian]. About where the big coronal hole seen here: will be tomorrow.

[sadmemories20]

Feb 18, 2011 23:15:34 GMT rangertab1 said:

I would like to discuss flares with all you solar physicists and any other knowledgeable persons interested in the subject. I confess that this subject is what led me to the internet, in search of professionals willing to discuss their solar-flare expertise.

Oddly, I began searching for web-discussions on such an event while the Sun was at a very low and late minimum. Flares were not a subject of much interest, but this week's X flare has revived it's discussion.

To keep things focused, I would like to begin with the discussion of the most powerful flare ever recorded by our modern devices. I would love to discuss all the flares in the minimum year of 2005 (especially the 20 January flare), but I would like to start with 4 November 2003.


On 4 November 2003, the largest flare ever recorded burst from the Sun and was classified as an X28, mostly because it overloaded GOES' instrumentation and couldn't be precisely classified. Because some scientists were already measuring our ionosphere for other scientific research, we were able to precisely determine this flare's strength using other methods, though GOES is a wonderful creature that I am tax-payer proud of.

Although all records indicate the 4 November 2003 flare was an X28+, it was later classified as an X45. I have been told it was somewhat of a 'haymaker' that, had it been more Earth facing, would have incapacitated the U.S. and other's satellite and energy systems.

Overall, the information above is not new news. You on this board are the folks I would love to receive comments from. Quite frankly, the subject fascinates me like few others. Thanks in advance for any new information on an old subject.

Well, great work! You have helped me to improve my knowledge about this field. Thank you so much for sharing.



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